Portugal vs Denmark Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 14 November 2026
🔊 Portugal host Denmark in the fifth round of Nations League Group A4 at the Municipal Stadium in Braga. The hosts lead the group comfortably with 12 points and have already secured a place in the quarter-finals, while Denmark are second with six points. This match is of great importance to the visitors’ qualification hopes: a win, combined with a particular result in the other group match, would secure their place in the knockout stage with a game to spare. Portugal have won all four of their group matches so far and have one of the tournament’s highest-scoring attacks. However, Denmark have already shown that they can score against Portugal and give them a contest.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before the match so you don’t miss any important changes.
Portugal have won three of their last four head-to-head meetings
📊 The most recent meeting took place on 1 October 2026 in Copenhagen. Portugal won 4-2 away from home, although Denmark equalised twice. Before that, the teams met in the 2025 Nations League quarter-finals: Denmark won the first leg 1-0 but lost the return leg 5-2. In 2015, Portugal won 1-0 in Euro 2016 qualifying. Portugal have therefore won three of the last four head-to-head matches, scoring 10 goals across those games.
Head-to-head statistics Portugal - Denmark
Portugal: four straight wins and a formidable attack
Jorge Jesus’s side have taken maximum points from four matches. Portugal beat Wales (1-0), defeated Norway twice (2-1 and 2-1) and won away to Denmark. Over that period, they scored nine goals and conceded four. Crucially, Portugal are not limited to one style of play: they can control possession and build attacks, but also make effective use of space after winning the ball back.
João Félix and Gonçalo Ramos have stood out in attack, each scoring three goals in four matches in the competition. Félix regularly finds space between the lines, while Ramos remains the main option for finishing moves in the penalty area. Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha move the ball forward and create chances for their teammates, while Pedro Neto adds pace on the flank. Even with some players unavailable, Jorge Jesus still has enough options to maintain a high level of attacking play.
From a tournament perspective, the hosts are in a comfortable position. Portugal have already secured a place in the quarter-finals, and avoiding defeat against Denmark is enough to guarantee top spot. That means they do not need to take excessive risks, but it is unlikely to make them abandon attacking football at home. A win would see them finish the group stage without dropping a point and boost their confidence ahead of their next match against Wales in Cardiff.
Match Results: Portugal
Denmark: crucial match in the race for a quarter-final place
Denmark have six points and sit second in the group. Brian Riemer’s side began the tournament with a 3-2 defeat to Norway, then beat Wales 2-0, lost to Portugal, but won 1-0 away to Wales in the fourth round. Their goal difference is 7:7. Denmark have been scoring regularly, but their defence frequently makes mistakes against national sides with strong attacking players.
The visitors’ main strength remains the quality of their midfield. Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg can compete for control of the ball and break up opposition attacks, while Mikkel Damsgaard creates chances between the lines. Up front, Rasmus Højlund poses the main threat, having already scored three goals in four tournament matches. He also scored in the previous meeting with Portugal, so Denmark can count on him to find the net in the return fixture.
The visitors have considerably more motivation. A win over Portugal, provided Norway do not beat Wales, will guarantee Denmark a place in the quarter-finals. Even a draw will allow them to avoid direct relegation from the top division. Denmark must therefore try to prevent the hosts from taking an early lead and look for opportunities to launch quick attacks.
Match Results: Denmark
Latest news
Portugal
❌ João Cancelo will miss the match through suspension. Nuno Tavares, Tomás Araújo and Rafael Leão were released from national team duty on 9 November following medical assessments. Flávio Nazinho and Gonçalo Inácio have been called up to Jorge Jesus’s squad in their place.
Denmark
❌ Andreas Christensen was not included in the November squad despite returning from a muscle injury: the defender played 30 minutes for Barcelona in their most recent match. Patrick Dorgu’s availability for the trip to Portugal is also in doubt. Brian Riemer has yet to make a final decision: the coach is considering leaving the player in Helsingør to continue individual training, rather than rushing his return, and to prepare him for the match against Norway on 17 November.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Portugal’s predicted starting XI: Diogo Costa - Dalot, Dias, António Silva, Nazinho - João Neves, Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes - Neto, Ramos, Félix.
📋 Denmark’s predicted starting XI: Hermansen - Rasmus Kristensen, Andersen, Nicolaisen, Maehle - Hjulmand, Højbjerg - Isaksen, Damsgaard, Skov Olsen - Højlund.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Over four Nations League matchdays, Portugal’s players have received 14 yellow cards - an average of 3.5 per match. Denmark’s figure is significantly lower: six yellow cards, or 1.5 per game. Portugal also commit more fouls, with 44 compared with Denmark’s 35. Given the hosts’ intense style and the visitors’ motivation to qualify for the quarter-finals, Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 is worth considering. Odds: 1.80*.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Portugal have scored nine goals in four rounds, while Denmark have scored seven. The previous meeting between the teams produced six goals. The hosts have considerable attacking potential and regularly create chances, but their defence is not always faultless. The visitors also need to push for a win, so they may play more boldly than usual. The preferred bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5 at odds of around 1.51*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Across four Nations League matches, Portugal have won 25 corners - an average of 6.25 per match. Denmark's figure is considerably lower: 15 corners, or 3.75 per match. The hosts bring their attacks to a conclusion noticeably more often and make greater use of the flanks. Given Portugal's advantage in the quality of their players and home advantage, Denmark will find it difficult to withstand their opponents' pressure. I suggest considering Portugal Team Total Corners - Over 4.5. Odds: 1.39*.
🚀 Risky Bet
Correct Score 2:1 - odds of 7.6*. Portugal won all four group-stage matches and have home advantage. Denmark, however, have a strong enough attack to score at least once, as they did in the first meeting. If the hosts can take the initiative but do not take excessive risks after going ahead, a 2:1 win looks quite realistic, although it remains a risky pick.
🎯 A Reliable Bet
Total Goals - Over 1.5 - odds of 1.15*. At least three goals were scored in three of Portugal's four matches in the current Nations League. Denmark were also involved in two high-scoring matches against Norway and Portugal, with 11 goals scored across those games. Even if the visitors adopt a more cautious approach, the attacking potential of both national teams gives reason to expect at least two goals.
🚀 Player Prop Bet
Gonçalo Ramos to have at least two shots on target - odds of 1.72*. The striker scored three goals in four group-stage matches and remains one of Portugal’s main options for finishing attacks. He averaged two shots on target over the previous four matchdays, and in the upcoming match the hosts should regularly work the ball into Denmark’s penalty area. If Ramos starts, he will have good opportunities to take several dangerous shots.
👀 If The Match Doesn't Go To Plan
If Denmark open the scoring, Portugal will have to be much more active in attack. In that case, Portugal Team Total Goals - Over 1.5 in the second half could be considered as an in-play bet. The hosts have enough quality attacking players to increase the pressure after the break. This option will be particularly interesting if Portugal have a clear advantage in shots and possession.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Portugal go into the match in much more stable form and have won all four group-stage games. Denmark have already lost to this opponent, but managed to score twice in the first meeting and now have strong motivation to pick up points. The hosts have a stronger squad and home advantage, while the visitors cannot afford to play passively. Given the difference in attacking potential and Denmark's need for points, Portugal should have enough chances to win. Final bet: Total Goals - Over 2.5. Correct score prediction: 2-1 to the hosts.
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Betting Tips: Portugal - Denmark
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in last 16 home games.in 12 of last 13 games (UEFA Nations League).in 8 of last 9 games.in last 7 home games (UEFA Nations League).
in 8 of last 9 games (UEFA Nations League).in 7 of last 8 home games (UEFA Nations League).in last 11 games.in 8 of last 9 games (UEFA Nations League).in last 7 away games.
in 6 of last 7 Portugal home games (UEFA Nations League).in 6 of last 7 Denmark away games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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