Luxembourg vs Estonia Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 13 November 2026
🔊 Estonia have kept clean sheets in three consecutive Nations League matches. Luxembourg have failed to score in the same number of matches. Estonia won one of those matches against Luxembourg themselves. Can Luxembourg end both runs at home?
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check it just before the match so you don't miss any important changes.
Head-to-Head
📊 The teams have already met in the current Nations League campaign, on 3 October in Tallinn, when Estonia beat Luxembourg 1-0. The scoreline does not reflect the difference in chances. Luxembourg had 54% possession but managed only two shots on target, while Estonia had 14 shots, nine of them on target. That win lifted Henn’s team into second place in the group.
Head-to-head statistics Luxembourg - Estonia
Three matches without a goal
Luxembourg scored both of their goals in the group in the opening round, when they beat Bulgaria 2-1 away. Since then, Jeff Strasser’s side have lost three matches in a row without scoring, conceding six goals. As a result, Luxembourg have the worst goal difference in the group: two scored and seven conceded.
At home, the picture is even bleaker. Luxembourg last won on home soil on 31 March, when they beat Malta in a Nations League play-off match. Since then, Italy, Iceland and Bulgaria have all left with wins, while Luxembourg have failed to score against any of them. In total, Luxembourg have lost five of their last six home matches, and earned all three of their group points away from home.
Match Results: Luxembourg
Six points from two goals
Estonia sit second in the group despite scoring just two goals. They are unbeaten after four rounds: a win over Luxembourg and three draws, two of them goalless. Estonia have conceded the same number of goals as group leaders Iceland: one.
The team have achieved these results with a five-man defence. In Tallinn, goalkeeper Matvei Igonen saved both of Luxembourg's shots on target, while Estonia also kept clean sheets against Bulgaria and at home to Iceland. The other side of the story is their away form: Estonia have failed to win 15 of their last 16 away matches. But they have not lost away in the group either, taking a point each from Iceland and Bulgaria.
Match Results: Estonia
Latest news
Luxembourg
❓ Luxembourg will be without Leandro Barreiro: the captain is nursing a thigh injury and was left out of the squad. Defender Enes Mahmutovic missed the October 6 match against Bulgaria through yellow card accumulation and is now available to Strasser again. Dirk Carlson, however, picked up his second yellow card of the competition against Bulgaria and will be suspended for the Estonia game. Danel Sinani, Seid Korac, Christopher Martins and Yvandro Borges Sanches are also out.
Estonia
❓ Karol Mets has served his two-yellow-card suspension and returns to the Estonia defence after sitting out the match against Iceland. However, Robi Saarma, Marten Kuusk, Markus Soomets, Rauno Sappinen and Vlasi Sinjavski were left out of the squad for health reasons.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Luxembourg’s predicted starting XI: Moris - Dzogovic, Mahmutovic, Selimovic, Bohnert - Moreira, Olesen, Dos Santos - Vincent Thill, Dardari, Veiga.
📋 Estonia’s predicted starting XI: Igonen - Paskotsi, Mets, Tougjas, Peetson, Saliste - Palumets, Poom, Kristal - Mustmaa, Mannilaan.
Total Goals Prediction
There have been fewer than three goals in each of Estonia's last six matches. Both of Henn's team's goals in the group were scored by defenders - Maksim Paskotši in Iceland and Rasmus Pitson in Tallinn. Luxembourg's attack has failed to score for three rounds: they last found the net in Bulgaria, where Leandro Barreiro and Vincent Thill scored. The risk lies in the hosts' defence: in September, Iceland left their ground with a convincing win. Still, we expect no more than two goals. The bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 1.50*.
Corners Prediction
Luxembourg had fewer than five corners in six of their last seven home matches. In Tallinn, Luxembourg took three corners to their opponents’ seven, despite having more possession. That possession did not translate into pressure: they had eight shots in the match, only two of them on target. We do not expect the hosts to reach five corners this time either. Bet - Luxembourg Team Total Corners - Under 4.5 at 2.10*.
Yellow Cards Prediction
Estonia have received fewer than three yellow cards in 13 of their last 15 Nations League matches. The Estonians have eight bookings in four matches in the current group. They received more than two only in Tallinn, where the teams committed 25 fouls between them, but Luxembourg picked up most of the cards - six to Estonia’s three. The referee has not yet been appointed, and that is the main risk. Even so, we expect the visitors to receive no more than two yellow cards. Bet - Estonia Team Total Yellow Cards - Under 2.5.
Player Prop Bet
Luxembourg’s two goals in the group were scored by Leandro Barreiro and Vincent Thill, with Thill scoring the winner in Bulgaria. He has had four shots on target in the Nations League, one in each round. In Tallinn, the whole team managed just two shots on target. Against Estonia’s compact defence, Thill’s shot remains the hosts’ main weapon. Bet - Vincent Thill to have over 0.5 shots on target.
High-Risk Bet
Luxembourg have failed to score in four of their last five home matches. The only exception was Malta, whom they beat back in March. Estonia have kept three consecutive clean sheets and conceded just one goal in the group. The risk is that Luxembourg almost always concede at home, and if the visitors score, they will have to push forward. Nevertheless, we expect Estonia to keep a fourth consecutive clean sheet. Bet - Luxembourg to Score - No at 3.25*.
Safer Bet
Estonia have not scored more than one goal in six consecutive Nations League matches, and have exceeded that mark only once in their last 16 away games. The Estonians have scored one goal in their two away games in the current group. Our bet still wins if the visitors score once. Only a second Estonia goal can make it lose. The bet is Estonia Team Total Goals - Under 1.5 at 1.26*.
If the Match Takes a Different Turn
A likely scenario is that Estonia sit back with five at the back, Luxembourg have possession but cannot break down their defence, and the visitors leave with a narrow win. This scenario falls apart if the hosts score first. Estonia are not used to chasing a game: they have scored two goals in four group matches. If that happens, look at Luxembourg to Win or Draw in-play. Keep this market in mind if the hosts take the lead in the first half-hour.
*Odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.
📌 Editor's Prediction
Luxembourg have failed to win eight of their last nine home matches. Estonia are still unbeaten in the group: a win over the hosts and three draws, with the team also picking up points in Iceland and Bulgaria. Luxembourg have not scored in their last three group matches and have nothing to trouble a defence that has kept three consecutive clean sheets. The risk is that Luxembourg have already won away in the group and are capable of scoring first, while Estonia have scored just two goals in four group matches. Even so, we expect Estonia's defence to hold firm and the visitors to take at least a point away from Luxembourg. Bet - Estonia to Win or Draw. Predicted score - 0:1.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Luxembourg - Estonia
in 5 of last 6 home games..svg)
in 8 of last 9 home games.
in 15 of last 16 away games.in 6 of last 7 Luxembourg home games.in 6 of last 7 Estonia away games.Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
