Denmark vs Portugal Prediction 1 October 2026
🔊 Denmark and Portugal meet on 1 October in Copenhagen in the third round of the Nations League. After two matches, the standings already separate the two sides: Portugal have won both of their games and collected six points, while Denmark, following a defeat to Norway, picked up their first three points against Wales. The two teams also come into this fixture with different amounts of experience under their new managerial setups: Portugal are beginning the Jorge Jesus era, while Brian Riemer continues to build his side around intensive pressing and ball control. Denmark already showed against Wales how effectively they can pin opponents down positionally, but now they face a team of a considerably different level of individual quality. That makes the first goal particularly important: Denmark will want to avoid giving Portugal the chance to control the tempo at their leisure, while the visitors have little reason to get drawn into an open, end-to-end exchange.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off so you don't miss any important changes.
Two matches - two completely different stories
📊 Recent head-to-head results suggest that home advantage genuinely matters for the Danes. In March 2025, Denmark beat Portugal 1-0 in Copenhagen, but three days later Portugal won the return fixture 5-2.
🔗 That last game is particularly relevant to the current match. In Copenhagen, Denmark managed to restrict their opponents and prevent them from creating the same volume of chances they had in the return fixture, where Portugal quickly turned the game into a more open affair. Conditions now are closer to the first scenario: Denmark are at home and, if needed, are capable of sustaining a high level of possession for long periods, while Portugal will need to find ways to break down an organised defence.
Head-to-head statistics Denmark - Portugal
Denmark turn up the pressure in attack once again
Denmark made an uneven start to the Nations League. They lost 2-3 to Norway, though they did pull level after going two goals down, before comfortably beating Wales 2-0 at home. In that second match, Denmark were particularly well-organised in the first half, with possession reaching 70%, and Mikkel Damsgaard hit the post as well as creating both goals after the break. His cross led to a Ben Davies own goal, and another cross then allowed Gustav Isaksen to extend the lead.
That is a relevant detail ahead of the match against Portugal. Denmark do not need to constantly speed the game up through the centre - against Wales they regularly found space on the flanks and made use of Damsgaard's deliveries. Rasmus Højlund receives enough of the ball in attack, and Isaksen is capable of creating danger with runs in behind the defence. Against Portugal, that kind of football could work, particularly if the hosts force their opponents to defend deeper and prevent them from immediately taking control through the central three.
Defensively, the situation is more complicated. Denmark have already conceded three goals against Norway, and ahead of the Portugal match they have lost several players. Alexander Bah has dropped out due to a recurrence of a shoulder injury, Andreas Christensen has suffered a muscle injury to his thigh, and Albert Grønbæk sustained a thigh muscle tear after coming on as a substitute against Norway. Patrick Dorgu also picked up a hamstring injury in the Wales match and has left the squad; Rímer is expected to call up another player in his place. Kasper Dolberg had also previously withdrawn from the squad.
Match Results: Denmark
Portugal shift their focus
Portugal began their new cycle under Jorge Jesus in pragmatic fashion, beating Wales 1-0 before defeating Norway 2-1. In Oslo, Portugal took the lead through a quick attack finished by João Félix, conceded to an Erling Haaland strike, then capitalised on an error in the Norwegian defence as Gonçalo Ramos scored the winner. After two matchdays, they lead Group A4 with six points.
Jesus has already made clear he does not intend to build his side around names. The most striking example was the Norway match, in which Cristiano Ronaldo was left on the bench and did not come on. The manager explained the decision on physical and tactical grounds, following Ronaldo's near-70 minutes against Wales. Ronaldo could well return to the starting XI in Copenhagen, but the fact that he was absent from the previous match shows that the captain's armband no longer guarantees an automatic place in the team.
Portugal retain several ways of building attacks. João Félix can drop into the spaces between the lines, Pedro Neto and Rafael Leão offer pace on the flanks, and Gonçalo Ramos, having already scored in Norway, looks well suited to playing against a defence forced to hold a high block. The return of Bruno Fernandes could also make a noticeable difference to the quality of the final pass: the midfielder missed the Oslo game due to a physical issue, but trained without restrictions on 28 September and is in contention to play against Denmark.
Match Results: Portugal
Latest news
Denmark
❌ Denmark's squad situation is noticeably more difficult: Bah, Christensen, Grønbek, Dorghu and Dolberg will all miss this Nations League window. That said, Riemer still has a solid core available, led by Damsgaard, Højbjerg, Hjulmand, Isaksen and Højlund.
Portugal
💊 Portugal's situation is calmer, though Francisco Conceição picked up an injury in Norway and missed training on 28 September; his condition is being assessed separately. Bruno Fernandes, by contrast, has already returned to full training.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Denmark predicted starting XI: Jørgensen - Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard, Maehle - Hjulmand, Højbjerg - Isaksen, Damsgaard, Daramy - Højlund.
📋 Portugal predicted starting XI: Costa - Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes - J. Neves, Vitinha, Fernandes - Neto, Ramos, Félix.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
This is not a friendly - it is a match that directly affects the standings in the group. Denmark, after losing to Norway, cannot afford to drop more points, especially at home. Portugal, on six points, have the luxury of playing more cautiously. Against Norway, the Portuguese picked up six yellow cards, while Denmark have collected four across their two matches.
The last head-to-head meeting between these sides also featured some rough moments, with the two teams accumulating six cards between them. Rimer will need to pay particular attention to the flanks, where Portugal are capable of forcing defenders into repeated fouls to stop quick attacks. On that basis, at least four bookings look a reasonable expectation here. The pick is Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at 1.70*.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Recent results paint an interesting picture. Denmark have scored five goals across two Nations League matches, Portugal three, and both sides have already shown they can create chances from quick transitions. Denmark also have defensive injury concerns, while Portugal have the option of bringing Bruno Fernandes back into the side and potentially Ronaldo into the attack. For that reason, I would not build a prediction around a low-scoring scenario simply because of caution in the first meeting between these two sides in 2025.
The structure of the match itself is another argument in favour of goals. Denmark need to win if they want to keep pace with Portugal in the group, and there is little reason for the visitors to sit on a narrow lead for long if the opportunity arises to punish the hosts on the counter. The market is also gradually shifting towards a higher-scoring outcome, so my pick is Total Goals - Over 2.5 at 1.75*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
In terms of match character, the corners market looks no less interesting than goals. Denmark against Wales had a lot of the ball and made frequent use of the right flank through Damsgaard, while Portugal in Norway also regularly got into dangerous areas. However, both sides earned just two corners each in their most recent matches.
A lot here will depend on who scores first. If Denmark go ahead, Portugal will have more space and will start using the flanks more often. If Portugal score first, the hosts will be forced to push significantly harder, which again leads to more deliveries and blocked shots. Either way, the match scenario looks capable of supporting a high volume of set pieces. The pick is Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.72*.
🚀 Risky Bet
Portugal to Win & Both Teams to Score - Yes, odds 3.60*. Denmark can take advantage of playing at home and score, but the hosts' injury problems leave Portugal, with their extensive and varied bench, enough opportunities to find a winning goal.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Total Goals - Over 1.5, odds - 1.24*. Denmark need to push for a win after their defeat to Norway, while Portugal have already collected six points and may look to exploit the space that opens up when the hosts commit forward. The last meeting between the two sides was also high-scoring - Portugal won 5-2. Two goals are enough for the bet to land, and the current form of both teams gives reason to consider that outcome.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
João Félix to have 1 or more shots on target, odds 1.36*. Félix already scored in the opening match against Wales, then started again in Norway and opened the scoring. Jesus's new system allows him to play closer to the central zone and find space for shots after quick transitions.
👀 If the match doesn't go to plan
If Denmark score first and the visitors continue to consistently work the ball into the penalty area past the 60th minute, it could be worth looking at Portugal Team Total - Over 1.5 Goals in-play. That scenario would force Jesús to introduce additional attacking firepower - most likely Ronaldo, Leão or others from the bench. If Denmark find themselves chasing the game or the score is level, they will have to push their defensive line higher and leave more space in behind. Portugal could then use their quality to create a second goal, which would be a perfectly logical way for the match to develop.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Denmark go into this match on the back of their win over Wales, but a growing list of absentees is gradually changing the shape of the team. Riemer is having to reorganise several areas at once, while Portugal have the chance to bring Bruno Fernandes back and have greater depth in attack. Denmark are also at home in Copenhagen and showed against Wales that they can pin opponents back in their own half for long periods.
So I'm not expecting an easy night for Portugal. Denmark will most likely cause them problems through pressing, wide attacks and a high tempo, but as the match progresses the depth of Portugal's attack should give Jorge Jesus more options. Bruno Fernandes's return matters particularly in a game like this: against a compact Danish defence, the quality of passing between the lines could be the decisive factor.
The main bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 1-2 to Portugal.
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Betting Tips: Denmark - Portugal
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in 15 of last 16 home games.
in 12 of last 14 away games.in 11 of last 12 games (UEFA Nations League).in 7 of last 8 games.in 6 of last 7 away games (UEFA Nations League).in last 9 Denmark games.in 6 of last 7 Denmark home games (UEFA Nations League).in last 5 Portugal away games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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