Norway vs Wales Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 14 November 2026
🔊 Norway and Wales meet in Oslo in the fifth round of Nations League Group A4. Both teams have three points, but Wales are ahead of Norway in third place thanks to their head-to-head win. Norway have lost their last three group-stage matches after a successful start against Denmark, while Wales have yet to pick up a point away from home. For the hosts, this is a vital opportunity to turn things around and keep alive their hopes of avoiding relegation from League A. Ståle Solbakken’s side also have a considerably stronger attack, led by Erling Haaland.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before the match so you do not miss any important changes.
Wales won in the first round
📊 On 1 October 2026, Wales won 2-1 in Cardiff. Daniel James and Neco Williams secured three points for the hosts. Now the Scandinavians will look to avenge that defeat at home.
Head-to-head statistics Norway - Wales
Norway: Haaland and Ødegaard should help end the losing streak
Ståle Solbakken’s side began the tournament with a high-scoring win over Denmark (3-2), but then lost three times by the same 2-1 scoreline - to Portugal, Wales and Portugal again. Norway have therefore scored six goals and conceded eight. Three consecutive defeats are clearly below the standards of a national side that reached the quarter-finals of the last World Cup.
The hosts’ main advantage remains the quality of their attacking players. Erling Haaland has scored three goals in four Nations League matches and remains the main threat to the opposition goal. Martin Ødegaard is responsible for organising attacks and moving the ball between the lines, while Antonio Nusa and Andreas Schjelderup can create danger from the flanks. Against Wales, who have conceded in each of their four matches, the hosts should have opportunities to score more goals.
Norway’s motivation in the standings should not be overlooked either. They are bottom of the table, so another setback could all but end their chances of staying in the top division. They face Denmark in Copenhagen in the final round, and would ideally go into that match with at least a chance of fighting for third place.
Match Results: Norway
Wales: key players return, but serious problems remain in attack
Craig Bellamy’s side began the group stage with a 1-0 defeat to Portugal, then lost 2-0 to Denmark before beating Norway. However, they suffered another defeat to the Danes (0-1) in the latest round. Wales have scored just two goals and conceded five across their four matches. Both goals came in their victory over Norway, while the visitors failed to score in either of their away fixtures.
The main positive for the visitors is the return of several experienced players. Craig Bellamy has included Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon and Karl Darlow in his November squad after all three missed the previous international break. Wilson can add creativity in the final third, Rodon strengthens the heart of the defence, while Darlow provides another option in goal. Brennan Johnson and Daniel James also stand out in attack, with their pace allowing them to exploit space behind opposition defences.
However, Wales will have to be much more cautious against Norway than they were in October. Haaland and Ødegaard pose a threat that is difficult to contain throughout the match. The visitors must prioritise staying compact and preventing the hosts from scoring early. If Wales are forced to spend most of the game defending again, their attacking players may have limited opportunities to create dangerous chances.
Match Results: Wales
Latest news
Norway
❌ Defender Sondre Langås is still recovering from a groin injury and will miss the match. Alexander Sørloth has returned to the national team after an injury, but Ståle Solbakken has warned that the striker is not yet ready to play two full 90-minute matches in a short space of time.
Wales
❌ Ben Cabango and Sorba Thomas will miss the match through suspension, while Jordan James is recovering from a muscle injury. The return of Wilson, Rodon and Darlow partly offsets the squad problems, but the absence of two regular starters still limits Bellamy’s options.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Norway’s predicted starting XI: Nyland - Ryerson, Ajer, Østigård, Møller Wolfe - Berge, Berg, Ødegaard - Nusa, Haaland, Schjelderup.
📋 Wales’ predicted starting XI: Ward - Williams, Rodon, Davies, Dasilva - Ampadu, Sheehan - Johnson, Wilson, Daniel James - Koumas.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
In four Nations League matches, Norway have received six yellow cards and Wales ten. That is an average of 1.5 yellow cards per match for the hosts and 2.5 for the visitors. Wales commit more fouls, with 49 compared to Norway’s 36. Given the standings and both teams’ need to fight for points, a fairly tense match can be expected. Consider Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at odds of 1.60*.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Norway have scored six goals in four rounds, while Wales have conceded five. Wales have yet to score away from home in this Nations League campaign, whereas Norway have scored in every group match. The hosts are capable of creating enough chances through the individual ability of Haaland, Ødegaard and Nusa, while the visitors could exploit their opponents’ defensive problems thanks to the pace of James and Johnson. Therefore, I’m backing Total Goals - Over 2.5 at odds of 1.42*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Over four Nations League matches, Norway have won 18 corners, averaging 4.5 per match. Wales’ figure is noticeably lower: 12 corners, or three per game. The hosts get their attacks into the final stages more often and should have the advantage in the number of set pieces near their opponents’ goal. Given these figures, I suggest considering Norway Team Total Corners - Over 4.5. The odds are 1.41*.
🚀 Risky Bet
Norway to Win with a Handicap (-3.5) - 4.20*. Norway have a significantly stronger attack and will play with the backing of their home crowd. Wales failed to score in their previous two away matches in the group, while the absence of Cabango and Thomas further complicates matters for the visitors. If Haaland and his teammates can score early, the hosts will have space to develop their attacks and could secure a big win, gaining convincing revenge.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Total Goals - Over 1.5 - odds of 1.12*. This total was exceeded in each of Norway’s previous four matches. Both national teams have defensive problems, and Norway scored even in matches they lost. Given the home side’s attacking advantage and both teams’ need for points, at least two goals look quite likely.
🚀 Player Prop Bet
Martin Ødegaard to score or provide an assist - odds of 1.83*. The Norway captain joins the national team after a win for Arsenal in which his goal earned them three points against Hull City (1-0). Ødegaard has also provided four assists in four matches in this season’s Nations League. The midfielder should pose no less of a threat than Erling Haaland. The Wales defence will almost certainly pay special attention to the Norwegian goalscorer, and Ødegaard could take advantage by finding space between the lines and creating chances for his teammates. I therefore suggest considering a goal contribution from the Norway captain.
👀 If The Match Doesn't Go To Plan
If Wales can withstand the early pressure and keep the score at 0-0 until half-time, Norway Team Total Goals - Over 1.5 in the Second Half could be considered as a live bet. The hosts need a result, and the presence of Haaland, Ødegaard and Nusa gives them reason to expect more attacking activity after the break. This option is particularly interesting if Norway have the edge in shots and possession.
*The odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Norway look stronger in terms of personnel and should make the most of their home advantage. Wales beat them in the first round of fixtures, but their away results raise questions. Harry Wilson's return could help the visitors in attack, although defensive absences could complicate matters. Haaland, Ødegaard and Nusa should have enough opportunities to decide the match in the hosts' favour. Final bet: Norway - Handicap -1.5. Correct score prediction: 4-0.
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Betting Tips: Norway - Wales
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in 8 of last 9 home games.in 7 of last 8 away games (UEFA Nations League).
in 6 of last 7 Norway games.in 6 of last 7 Wales away games.in last 5 Wales games.in last 23 games.in last 9 games (UEFA Nations League).Comparison of Teams Stats
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