Montenegro vs Latvia Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 12 November 2026
📢 At opposite ends of the table, with very different objectives but the same desire to win. In the fifth round of Nations League League C, Montenegro will host Latvia at the "City Stadium". The hosts are comfortably top of the group and one step away from promotion, while the visitors are bottom of the table and risk finishing the competition in last place. Will Montenegro live up to their status as favourites, or will Latvia spring a surprise?
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Montenegro have the better head-to-head record
📊 Montenegro and Latvia have met just three times in recent years, and Montenegro still have the edge in this fixture. They have won twice, while the other match ended in a draw. In the first round of the current Nations League campaign, Montenegro won 2-1 away from home. Despite the teams having the same number of shots, Montenegro posed a much greater attacking threat and deserved their victory.
Head-to-head statistics Montenegro - Latvia
Montenegro retain the lead
Montenegro were relegated from League B at the end of the previous Nations League campaign, so their main objective in this edition is to return to a higher division. So far, they are making steady progress towards that goal, taking 10 points from a possible 12 and topping the group table. Montenegro have barely slipped up and are in an excellent position going into the final two rounds. The key now is to preserve the advantage they have built and finish the job.
Their only dropped points came in the previous round, when Montenegro unexpectedly failed to beat Armenia at home (0:0). The hosts were clear favourites and controlled much of the match, but could not find a way through their opponents’ organised defence. Despite having more possession, Montenegro created few clear-cut chances. Still, nothing critical happened: they retained their lead in the group and remain the leading contenders for direct promotion.
Match Results: Montenegro
Latvia remain bottom of the group
Latvia are only 143rd in the FIFA rankings - the lowest position of any team in the group. As a result, they were not expected to achieve anything significant. So far, the national team have fully lived up to their underdog status, taking just one point from four matches and sitting bottom of the table. Latvia have not only been outperformed in terms of results but have often looked noticeably weaker in the quality of their play.
Nevertheless, Latvia could have had considerably more points. In the previous round, they came close to causing an upset away to Cyprus (1-2). Latvia opened the scoring and held their lead for a long time, but then allowed the hosts to equalise. It looked as though the visitors would at least come away with a draw, but they conceded a second goal in the fourth minute of added time and left empty-handed.
Match Results: Latvia
Latest news
Montenegro
Montenegro have one confirmed absentee ahead of the match. Midfielder Stefan Loncar is suspended after receiving a red card against Armenia in the previous round.
Latvia
Latvia have two confirmed absentees. Renars Varslavans remains sidelined with a serious knee injury, while Kristers Penkevics is also unavailable for the current international window.
Total Goals Prediction
Montenegro's matches have featured plenty of goals: at least three have been scored in seven of their last eight competitive fixtures. A similar trend can be seen in the current Nations League campaign, where that mark has been exceeded in three of Montenegro's four matches. Given Latvia's weak defence and the hosts' attacking potential, there is reason to expect the run to continue. Our pick is Total Goals - Over 2.5 at odds of 1.90*.
Corners Prediction
Montenegro’s Nations League matches rarely feature many set pieces. Each of their last six matches in the competition has produced fewer than ten corners. Their first meeting with Latvia was no exception, with the two teams earning just seven corners between them. Given these statistics, our bet is Total Corners - Under 9.5 at odds of 1.88*.
Yellow Cards Prediction
Montenegro are clearly superior to Latvia in terms of player quality and will almost certainly try to seize the initiative from the opening minutes at home. The visitors will find it difficult to withstand the hosts’ constant pressure, so Latvia will most likely have to commit fouls more often and stop dangerous attacks at the cost of yellow cards. Our bet is Latvia to receive more yellow cards than Montenegro.
Player Prop Bet
Nikola Krstović remains Montenegro's star player and heads into the upcoming match in excellent form. The Atalanta striker has scored twice in his last two appearances for the club. He has also scored twice for his country in the current Nations League campaign. Given Latvia's weak defence, we are backing Nikola Krstović to score at odds of 1.84*.
High-Risk Bet
After a goalless draw with Armenia, Montenegro will surely want to give their fans a more exciting performance. If the hosts score an early goal, Latvia will have to open up, which could lead to a heavy defeat. For those willing to take a risk, we suggest Montenegro - Handicap -2.5 at odds of 3.55*.
Safer Bet
Montenegro rarely play low-scoring matches at home. At least two goals have been scored in 10 of their last 11 home Nations League matches. If you do not want to take risks, you can therefore back Total Goals - Over 1.5 at odds of 1.27*.
If the Match Takes a Different Turn
It is possible that Latvia will sit deep in defence from the opening minutes, all but abandoning attacking play. In that case, Montenegro will have to break down the visitors’ packed defence, something they struggled to do in their recent match against Armenia (0:0). And the longer the score stays at 0:0, the more pressure will build on the hosts. Our alternative bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5 at odds of 1.97*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editor’s Pick
According to the bookmakers, Montenegro are clear favourites for the upcoming match, and it is hard to disagree with that assessment. The gap in quality between the two national teams is too wide, and Latvia have been extremely unconvincing away from home. The hosts clearly have no intention of dropping points against the group’s main outsiders, especially with a return to League B at stake. Therefore, our main bet is Montenegro - Handicap -1.5. Predicted score: 3:0.
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Betting Tips: Montenegro - Latvia
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in 11 of last 12 games (UEFA Nations League).in 9 of last 10 games.
in 10 of last 11 Montenegro home games (UEFA Nations League).
in 10 of last 11 games.in 7 of last 8 home games (UEFA Nations League).in last 5 home games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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