Fluminense vs Bahia Ba Prediction 30 July 2026
🔊 Fluminense and Bahia arrive at this match in similar form: the hosts have drawn three straight league games, the visitors two. They also drew in the first leg - 1-1. On top of that, in mid-July, during a break in the league calendar, the two sides played a friendly, and Luís Zubeldía's team came out on top - 2-0. Fluminense sit fourth in the table, just two points ahead of Bahia. It might look like a match between two evenly matched sides, but the high odds on a Bahia win make sense. At the Maracanã, Fluminense have beaten this opponent seven times in a row - which makes the hosts the natural favourites here.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the two sides took place on 05 February 2026 and ended 1-1. Here's the comparative stats from that game (Fluminense were the home side):
- possession: 48% vs 52%;
- corners: 1 vs 2;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 5;
- fouls: 12 vs 13;
- shots on target: 5 vs 4.
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Fluminense and Bahia:
- 30 matches played;
- home wins - 13, away wins - 8, draws - 9;
- goals - 39 vs 30;
- average first-half total - 1.07, second-half - 1.23;
- average total goals per match - 2.3.
Head-to-head statistics Fluminense - Bahia Ba
Fluminense Team Overview
The team's last official match was played on in the Série A (Grêmio at home, Fluminense away). It finished 1-1.
Match stats (Fluminense vs Grêmio):
- possession: 49% vs 51%;
- corners: 2 vs 9;
- fouls: 9 vs 12;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 2;
- shots on target: 3 vs 5.
In their last three rounds, Fluminense picked up three points from three draws - against Cruzeiro, Bragantino and Grêmio. All three finished 1-1. And in four straight matches involving the Rio side, the total goals stayed under 2.5.
Fluminense are strong at home not just against Bahia but generally: in 6 of their last 7 games at the Maracanã, Luís Zubeldía's side scored at least twice. On that home record against Bahia specifically - Bahia have failed to score in 6 of the last 7 meetings in Rio.
That said, the hosts' current defensive form raises real doubts about whether 45-year-old goalkeeper Fábio can keep a clean sheet. Fluminense have conceded in 13 consecutive matches.
Match Results: Fluminense
Bahia Team Overview
The visitors' last official match took place in the Série A (Bahia at home, Corinthians away). It ended 1-1.
Match stats (Bahia vs Corinthians):
- Possession: 60% vs 40%;
- Corners: 7 vs 2;
- Fouls: 17 vs 18;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 5;
- Shots on target: 2 vs 2.
Bahia drew their last two matches - 1-1 against Atletico Mineiro and 1-1 against Corinthians. In the Série A, Rogerio Seni's side have gone four games without a defeat, winning two before the World Cup break.
That run could easily end in Rio, and not just because of a poor record at the Maracana. Bahia haven't won away from home in five straight matches across all competitions. On top of that, they've conceded in 13 of their last 14 games.
A heavy defeat seems unlikely - Fluminense have scored more than two goals against Bahia in just one of their last 24 meetings. But the visitors need to be switched on from the first whistle: in 6 of their last 7 away matches, they conceded before half-time.
Match Results: Bahia
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 30;
- first-half wins for the home side - 5; for the away side - 1; draws - 7;
- average first-half total: 1.07;
- today's hosts average 0.6 goals in the first half, the visitors - 0.47.
First-half stats: Fluminense (home) vs Bahia (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 10 vs 9;
- wins: 5 (50%) vs 4 (44.44%);
- losses: 2 (20%) vs 4 (44.44%);
- draws: 3 (30%) vs 1 (11.11%);
- average goals scored: 1.1 vs 1.33;
- average goals conceded: 0.3 vs 0.67.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 5 vs 2;
- losses: 2 vs 4;
- draws: 3 vs 4;
- average first-half total: 1.3 (scored - 0.9, conceded - 0.4) vs 1.4 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.8).
- Bahia have conceded in the first half away from home in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home team - 1.3, away team - 1;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.3;
- both teams scored: all time - 13 times; at the home team's stadium - 4 times.
Average total statistics: Fluminense vs Bahia
- in the tournament: 2.75 vs 2.7;
- goals scored: 1.5 vs 1.45;
- in the 1st half: 0.7 vs 0.75;
- in the 2nd half: 0.8 vs 0.7;
- Fluminense: home matches in the tournament - 1.8;
- Bahia: away matches in the tournament - 1.33;
- last 10 matches: 1.5 (home - 2) vs 1.5 (away - 1.5).
- Total under 3.5 goals occurred in 13 of the last 14 head-to-head matches between these teams.
- Total under 3.5 goals occurred in 11 of the last 12 head-to-head matches between these teams (Serie A).
- Total under 3.5 goals occurred in 10 consecutive head-to-head matches between these teams at the home team's stadium (Serie A).
- Total under 3.5 goals occurred in 7 of the last 8 Fluminense matches.
- Total under 3.5 goals occurred in 5 consecutive Fluminense matches (Serie A).
- Total under 3.5 goals occurred in 7 of the last 8 Bahia matches.
- Total under 3.5 goals occurred in 6 of the last 7 Bahia matches (Serie A).
Corners Prediction
Fluminense: Statistics
- season: average total in the tournament - 5.6; home matches - 6;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.5; home matches - 5.33.
Bahia: Statistics
- season: average total in the tournament - 6.05; away matches - 5;
- last 10 matches: average total - 7.3; away matches - 7.
- Fluminense have had under 5.5 corners in 13 of the last 14 head-to-head matches between these teams (Serie A).
- Fluminense have had under 5.5 corners in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head matches between these teams.
- Fluminense have had under 5.5 corners at home in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head matches between these teams.
- Fluminense have had under 5.5 corners in 7 of the last 8 matches.
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 30;
- both teams scored all time - 13 times;
- at the home team's stadium - 4 times.
Statistics: Fluminense vs Bahia
- played in the tournament: 20 vs 20;
- matches this season where both teams scored (BTTS): 15 vs 14;
- Fluminense: BTTS at home - 8 (80%);
- Bahia: BTTS away - 6 (67%).
Last 10 matches:
- matches with BTTS: 9 vs 9;
- Fluminense: BTTS at home - 6 (100%);
- Bahia: BTTS away - 4 (100%).
- Fluminense have scored and conceded in 10 consecutive home matches.
- Fluminense have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Fluminense have scored and conceded in 6 consecutive home matches (Serie A).
- Bahia have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
- Bahia have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches (Serie A).
- Bahia have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results this season:
- most frequent score in the tournament: 1-1 (32/199, 16.1%);
- Fluminense at home most often finish matches: 2-1 (3/10, 30%);
- Bahia away most often play: 0-1, 1-2 (2/9, 22.2%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1-1 - 11.03% (odds 7)
2-1 - 10.15% (odds 7.5)
1-0 - 10.06% (odds 7)
- Fluminense have drawn 1-1 in 3 consecutive matches (Série A).
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Fluminense arrive at this match on a run of draws, but they remain one of the most reliable home sides in the league. Maracanã is a real advantage - this is where they regularly beat Bahia, and the visitors have struggled badly in Rio de Janeiro in recent years.
Bahia are in decent form and don't lose often, but away results are the weak spot for Rogério Ceni's side. Five matches without a win on the road, and they tend to make defensive errors in the first half. Fluminense can exploit that and keep their strong head-to-head record at home going. The editors back a Fluminense win. Predicted score: 2-1 to the hosts.
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Betting Tips: Fluminense - Bahia
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