Turkey vs Italy Prediction 28 September 2026
📢 Who will manage to give their supporters something to cheer about in this match? Both Turkey and Italy have given little cause for optimism recently, and the start of the new Nations League campaign has only increased the pressure on both sides. In the opening round, both teams suffered defeats to nil, so any further slip-up will feel especially painful. All of this adds extra intrigue to a match that will be played at the Timsah Arena.
🔁 This prediction is updated on match day. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Italy have enjoyed more success than Turkey in their recent head-to-head encounters.
📊 Turkey and Italy have met fairly regularly in recent years. Since 2021 the two sides have played three times: once at Euro 2020 and twice in friendlies. Italy have the better record, with two wins and one draw. The most recent meeting came in 2024 and was an extremely tight affair, with neither side able to find the net and the match ending 0-0.
Head-to-head statistics Turkey - Italy
Turkey’s defeat to France doesn’t tell the whole story of the match.
Turkey had a thoroughly disappointing World Cup, failing to get out of a fairly straightforward group - a serious letdown for a squad of their quality. The new Nations League campaign was supposed to offer a quick chance to rebuild confidence, but the opening round brought more frustration. In their first match, Turkey lost 0-1 to France at home and were left without a point.
That said, the hosts were far from hopeless in terms of the actual performance and gave one of the world's strongest sides a real game. Yes, Turkey had just 36% possession, but the other key numbers were almost level: both sides had 12 shots, shots on target were 3-4, chances created were 2-2, and xG stood at 1.03 versus 1.15. Turkey played a perfectly respectable match, but the difference in individual quality ultimately told.
Match Results: Turkey
Italy are evolving, but their old problems persist
The last year and a half has clearly not been a good period for Italy. The team has been going through a turbulent spell: they have again failed to qualify for the World Cup, with the 2026 tournament becoming the third consecutive edition without them. At the same time, the squad has been changing managers, going through a generational transition and trying to reshape its personnel on the fly. Nine debutants were called up for the current Nations League campaign. But nothing has worked so far.
Italy also made a poor start to the Nations League, despite having all the advantages on paper. At home, they managed to lose to Belgium without scoring, going down 0-2 with a goal conceded in each half. The game was fairly even in terms of content - 21 shots to 19, with 6 on target against 8 - but at home, and as favourites, they clearly needed to perform with more conviction, particularly defensively. They also failed to convert their own chances, despite a decent xG of 1.92.
Match Results: Italy
Latest news
Turkey
❌ For Turkey, Uğurcan Çakır will definitely miss the match after being sent off against France: the goalkeeper received a red card for handball outside the penalty area and is now suspended. After his dismissal, Altay Bayındır took over in goal and is currently the leading candidate to start.
Italy
✅ Italy have no new confirmed absences following their match against Belgium. They do, however, receive an important boost compared to the first round: Alessandro Bastoni returns from suspension and is available for selection again. Italian media also report that Mancini is planning significant rotation after the first round.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Turkey predicted starting XI: Bayındır - Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu - Yüksek, Kökçü - Güler, Aktürkoğlu, Yılmaz - Uzun.
📋 Italy predicted starting XI: Donnarumma - Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Ruggeri - Frattesi, Mandragora, Fagioli - Raspadori, Scamacca, Esposito.
⚽️ Goals prediction
Both teams showed some decent attacking play at times in the first round of the Nations League and created chances, but the fact remains that neither Turkey nor Italy could find the net. Between them they failed to score a single goal. Both sides are also far from their best right now and are clearly lacking consistency. Expecting a high-scoring shootout from this fixture would be overly optimistic. Our pick is Total Goals - Under 3 at odds of 1.62*.
🚩 Corners prediction
A threshold of four corners is nothing for a side like Italy. They clear it consistently: the Italians won at least four corners in 9 of their last 10 official matches. Even in their difficult game against Belgium they managed to surpass that mark. Against Turkey the visitors should be getting into the opposition box regularly, so we are backing Italy Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 at odds of 1.56*.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
There was no shortage of edge in the first round of the Nations League. The referee showed five yellow cards and one red in Turkey's match against France, while Italy versus Belgium turned into a real battle with eight bookings. The Nations League is often described as not the most important tournament, but on the pitch the players clearly treat these matches differently and give everything they have. Against that backdrop, Total Yellow Cards - Over 3 at odds of 1.75* is worth considering.
🚀 Player statistic bet
With Hakan Çalhanoğlu absent, Arda Güler becomes one of Turkey's main attacking threats. The midfielder looked very lively against France: he created two chances and had one shot on target himself. If there is a danger to the Italian goal, it is most likely to come from him. We are backing Arda Güler Total Shots on Target - Over 0.5 at odds of 1.50*.
😱 Risky bet
If you expect a cautious, low-scoring match, you can go a step further and look at Total Goals - Under 1.5 at odds of 4.46*. In the first round, both teams lacked that final decisive touch - why should it suddenly appear in this fixture? Given that the last meeting between these two sides ended 0-0, even if it was a friendly, this bet has a reasonable case.
🎯 Reliable bet
If you are looking for a safer option, you could go with Turkey Team Total Corners - Under 6.5 at odds of 1.25*. Yes, Italy are far from their best right now, but it is still hard to imagine them allowing the opposition to reach the corner flag time and again. Turkey themselves rarely clear that mark either: they won fewer than seven corners in 10 of their last 11 Nations League matches.
👀 If the match goes off-script
The opposite scenario should not be ruled out. If one side scores early, the game could open up - the other team would have to push forward in numbers, which would create more space for counter-attacks. In that case, Total Goals - Over 2.5 at odds of 1.80* is worth a look.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
According to the bookmakers, there is no clear favourite for this match. Italy do look stronger than Turkey in terms of squad quality, but they will be playing under significant pressure from a hostile crowd, and their current form is far from convincing. Turkey are also well short of their best, which makes this a match that could genuinely go any of three ways. In that context, a single moment could decide everything: a defensive error, a set piece or an individual piece of play. We therefore expect a cautious game without many goals and are backing Total Goals - Under 3. The expected score is 0-0.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Turkey - Italy
in last 6 home games (UEFA Nations League)..svg)
in 5 of last 6 away games (UEFA Nations League).in 7 of last 8 home games (UEFA Nations League).in 9 of last 10 away games.in last 6 away games (UEFA Nations League).Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
