Italy vs France Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 12 November 2026

📊 The home side have not won any of the last three head-to-head matches. In September 2024, Italy beat France 3-1 away from home. In November, France gained revenge away from home. The October meeting in France ended in a draw. These two sides have not produced a high-scoring result: there have been fewer than five goals in eight consecutive head-to-head matches.

France have scored more than two goals against Italy in just one of their last eight meetings. The exception was the return match in November 2024. The picture is similar in the current Nations League: France scored only one goal in three of their four matches. We expect the visitors to score no more than two goals at the San Siro, too. The bet is France Team Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 1.35*.

There were at least nine corners in seven of Italy's eight home matches in the Nations League. The two teams combined for more than seven corners in 14 of Italy's last 15 matches. France have kept up that pace: the same was true in eight of their nine away matches in the tournament. The hosts will have to attack to catch the leaders. We expect at least nine corners between the two teams. Bet - Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.50*.

There have been more than three yellow cards in only two of France’s last 15 matches. Zidane’s team have plenty of possession and rarely commit fouls: in the Nations League, they rank eighth-lowest for fouls among 54 national teams. Italy’s matches have featured more than 26 fouls between the two sides only once in their last eight games. The risk is the referee: Romanian István Kovács, who is not shy about showing cards, will officiate the match. Even so, we do not expect a fifth yellow card. The bet is Total Yellow Cards - Under 4.5 at 1.47*.

Michael Olise is France's standout player right now. In October, he opened the scoring against Italy. Three days later, against Belgium, Olise came on as a substitute around the hour mark and turned the match around with two goals and an assist for Rayan Cherki. We expect him to start in Milan, and Italy have conceded in all four Nations League matches. The bet is - Michael Olise to Score.

Italy and France are level in their head-to-head record, with five wins each and four draws. Their three Nations League meetings have not settled which side is stronger either: each team have won once, and they drew 1-1 in France in October. The risk is that France have won five of their last six away matches. Even so, we expect the teams to draw again. The bet is Draw at 3.90*.

France have almost stopped losing. They have suffered just two defeats in their last 18 matches, both at the World Cup in the summer - against Spain and England. The French are also unbeaten in six consecutive away matches. The bet wins if the visitors win or draw, so it has plenty of margin. The bet is France to Win or Draw at 1.23*.

The likely scenario is an open match in which both teams score and the game ends in a draw. That scenario falls apart if the deadlock remains unbroken at half-time. Zidane’s France have not scored before half-time in the Nations League, but they have won the second half in seven of their last eight away matches in the competition. Zidane’s substitutions make the difference, and the visitors’ goals will come towards the end. If that happens, look at a live bet on a France win in the second half and a France goal after half-time.

*The odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.

📌 Editor's Prediction

Italy have scored in 17 of their last 18 home matches, but have struggled to keep clean sheets. In the Nations League, they conceded in 13 of 14 matches. That defence suits the visitors: France have scored in 19 of their last 20 games. Neither side will play cautiously: a win would secure first place for France ahead of schedule, while it would allow Italy to draw level on points with the leaders. We therefore expect both teams to score. The bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 2:2.