Albania vs Finland Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 12 November 2026

📊 On 3 October 2026, Finland won 2-1. Rey Manaj opened the scoring in the 4th minute, but goalkeeper Etrit Berisha was sent off in the 22nd. Leo Walta equalised two minutes later, then scored his second after the break to give Finland the win.

Albania’s first four group matches averaged 4.5 yellow cards, while Finland’s averaged around 4.25. Both teams contest challenges fairly actively, and the importance of points in the battle for first place increases the likelihood of tactical fouls. Consider Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.

Albania have scored eight goals and conceded three, while Finland have scored nine and conceded two. However, seven of the visitors’ goals came in a thrashing of San Marino, while the Finns scored just twice in their other three matches combined. Given what is at stake and both teams’ solid defending, I expect a cagey contest: Total Goals - Under 2.5 at odds of 1.62*.

Across the first four rounds, Albania's matches averaged 10.5 corners, while Finland's averaged around 8.25. The hosts take an average of 6.75 corners per game, and Finland take six. Both figures point to fairly active use of the flanks, so Total Corners - Over 8.5 is worth considering. The odds are 1.67*.

Draw - odds of 3.35.* Albania and Finland are direct rivals for first place in the group, so the cost of a mistake in this match is particularly high. The hosts perform better at home, but Finland beat them in the first meeting and come into the match with a strengthened attack. Both teams are also fairly solid defensively. Given how evenly matched the sides are and what is at stake in the group, a draw looks like an interesting option at higher odds.

Total Goals - Under 3.5 - odds of 1.20*. Both national teams have been fairly solid defensively: over four group-stage matches, Albania have conceded three goals and Finland two. With the two sides competing directly for first place, open football throughout the full 90 minutes seems unlikely.

Rey Manaj to have at least two shots on target - odds of 1.97*. The forward remains one of Albania's main options for finishing attacks. In the upcoming match, the hosts should have more possession and look for opportunities to get into Finland's penalty area. Manaj is capable of regularly receiving passes in the final stages of attacks, so backing him to have two or more shots on target looks more appealing than backing him to score.

If Finland open the scoring and switch to a more compact defence, Albania will have to push forward much more. In that case, Albania to score in the second half could be considered as a live bet. The hosts’ pressure and need to come from behind should increase their attacking activity after the break.

*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.

⭐ Editor's Prediction

Albania have home advantage and lead the group, but Finland have gained extra confidence after their October win over the same opponents. The return of Antman and Skyttä should help the visitors in attack, but both teams have well-organised defences. Given the importance of this head-to-head match and the cautious nature of their previous meetings, I do not expect many goals. Final bet: Total Goals - Under 2.5. Correct score prediction: 1-1.