Italy vs Turkey Prediction 5 October 2026
📢 Can Italy end their current international window on a high? Turkey have been thoroughly unimpressive in this Nations League campaign: after the first round of fixtures, they are yet to pick up a single point. Italy are doing better, but not by much - they currently sit third in the group. Both sides are in desperate need of a win, so the match at the Renato Dall'Ara promises to be a genuinely interesting affair.
🔁 This prediction is updated on match day. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Italy maintain a clear edge in their head-to-head record against Turkey
📊 The head-to-head record is firmly in Italy's favour: the two sides have met 14 times, with Italy winning 10 and the remaining four ending in draws. Italy have never lost to Turkey. In the first-leg meeting in the current Nations League, Turkey again couldn't get anything from the game, losing 4-1 despite home advantage and significant rotation in the Italian squad. That said, the statistics didn't paint quite such a one-sided picture: Turkey created chances and didn't fall apart as a team, but their finishing let them down.
Head-to-head statistics Italy - Turkey
Italy remain in the hunt, but their performances fail to convince
Italy are going through a difficult period and have made a fairly modest start to the current Nations League campaign. After three matchdays they have four points, two behind second-placed Belgium. Despite the quality of their squad, which should be good enough to challenge for a play-off place and the trophy, the reality at the moment is that the team may find themselves in the relegation play-offs to stay in the top division.
Things could have been worse had Italy lost to France away in the previous matchday. Roberto Mancini's side were outplayed: 35% possession against 65%, 14 shots to 18 and 2 on target to 8. They also had to come from behind during the match. The only statistic where Italy came out ahead was xG, at 1.54 against 1.26. In that context, a 1-1 draw is probably a decent result for this Italy side, particularly given how the match unfolded.
Match Results: Italy
Turkey create chances, but they concede goals far too easily.
Turkey have been getting worse with each round. They started with a narrow home defeat (0-1), followed that up with a heavy loss to Italy (1-4) at home - albeit with a decent enough performance - and then ended the first half of the group stage with a thrashing away to Belgium (0-3). Vincenzo Montella's side were always considered clear outsiders in the group, but few expected things to go this badly, with no points picked up at all.
That said, it is worth acknowledging that Turkey did not look too bad against Belgium either. The xG was level at 1.47 each, Turkey actually had six more shots (23 to 17), and they had a slight edge in chances created (2-1). But once again their defending let them down badly: they allowed their opponents to get 10 shots on target. Until they sort things out at the back, the run of defeats against high-quality opposition looks likely to continue.
Match Results: Turkey
Latest news
Italy
✅ Italy have no new injury concerns following their match against France.
Turkey
❌ Turkey have serious squad problems following their match against Belgium. Arda Güler and Barış Yılmaz both picked up yellow cards, resulting in suspensions for the next game. Both have already left the national team camp.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Italy predicted starting XI: Donnarumma - Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori - Barella, Tonali, Frattesi - Vergara, P. Esposito, Kean.
📋 Turkey predicted starting XI: Cakir - Kabak, Demiral, Celik - Kadioglu, Ozcan, Yuksek, Elmali - Akgun, Akturkoglu - Gul.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Italy's defence in its current state is far from solid. They have conceded in 12 of their last 13 Nations League matches, and in all three of their games in the first round of the current edition the Italians conceded at least once. The visitors are inconsistent going forward, but they do create chances in good numbers in every match. We are therefore backing Turkey to Score at 1.50*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Turkey have gone under Total Corners - Under 9.5 in five consecutive Nations League matches. The first meeting with Italy followed the same pattern: the two sides combined for eight corners, with Turkey surprisingly taking the greater share (6-2). We are not expecting this trend to be broken in the upcoming match.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Teams in League A Group 1 are playing very physically - bookings are handed out in almost every match, and in some games the total has reached eight. This match is hugely important for both sides, so the intensity should be even higher. We are therefore backing Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Strange as it may sound, Italy's top scorer in the current Nations League campaign is Alessandro Bastoni. The centre-back has netted twice - against Turkey and against France. He missed the first-round match against Belgium through suspension, so he might well have added to his tally there too. On that basis, it is worth a punt on Alessandro Bastoni to Score.
😱 Risky Bet
Saying Turkey's defending has been poor is putting it mildly. They have conceded eight goals in three rounds, with seven of those coming in the last two matches. Only Croatia have a worse record in League A right now, having conceded 12. Against that backdrop, the hosts could well give their opponents another difficult evening, particularly if they score early and force Turkey to open up. For those who like a risk, Italy Team Total - Over 3 is available at 3.70*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Italy very rarely fail to score, especially at home. They have found the net in 16 of their last 17 home matches. Given Turkey's current defensive problems, this option looks particularly solid. Italy to Score is priced at 1.09*.
👀 If the Match Goes Another Way
An alternative scenario should not be ruled out. Turkey have a number of absentees and their defence has been all over the place, so the coaching staff may well opt for a very compact, defensive approach. In that case, the hosts could find themselves struggling to break down a deep defensive block. The alternative bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 2.47*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The bookmakers consider Italy clear favourites, and it is hard to argue with that assessment. Almost every advantage lies with the hosts: a higher class of players, better current form, a strong head-to-head record and home advantage. On top of that, Turkey have a number of injury absences, and their defensive play in this Nations League campaign has been regularly falling apart under pressure. We are not expecting any miracles here, so our main bet is an Italy win. We are expecting a 3-1 scoreline.
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Betting Tips: Italy - Turkey
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