Netherlands vs Serbia Prediction 4 October 2026
🔉 Serbia head to Eindhoven on the back of three consecutive defeats in the Nations League. Their chances of ending that run look slim, but picking up points is not out of the question - the Netherlands have drawn 2 of their 3 matches in the tournament. The Dutch go into this game after a comeback draw with Greece (2-2), having been 2-0 down. Serbia, meanwhile, have lost all three of their matches and sit bottom of the table with no points.
🔁 This prediction will be updated as important news emerges. Check back closer to kick-off.
Head-to-Head
📊 The first Nations League match ended in a Netherlands win (2:1), but statistically the Dutch were considerably the stronger side. They led the xG count 3.65 to 1.14, had 25 shots to 11, and put 8 on target to their opponents' 6.
Head-to-head statistics Netherlands - Serbia
Netherlands: An Almost Perfect Start
The side sit second in Group 2 of League A with five points from three matches - two draws and a win - and a goal difference of 5:4. The victory over Serbia was the standout result of that run, though the Netherlands also showed character in the games against Germany and Greece. In both of those matches they fell behind - conceding two to Greece - yet managed to draw both. Defensively they have lacked reliability, but the attack has been consistent. Under Havi, the side have shown they can play through possession as well as exploit counter-attacks, and the team has become more varied and flexible under the new manager.
Match Results: Netherlands
Serbia: A Disappointing Campaign and Slim Playoff Hopes
Serbia could have hoped for a top-two finish in the group and a play-off place, but only with a perfect start. That never happened - the team lost all three matches, falling to the Netherlands, Germany and Greece. Their goal difference stands at 2-6, and they are bottom with zero points. Even a win will not lift them off the foot of the table: they are four points behind Germany and seven behind leaders Greece. The main problem has been poor defending. In all three matches, opponents recorded an xG of over 3.00. Serbia themselves responded with attacking play and scored against the Netherlands and Greece, but in the last round against Germany they not only failed to score but managed just 0.01 xG from a single shot on target. The defensive issues are not limited to this Nations League campaign - Serbia have now gone 12 matches without a clean sheet across all competitions.
Match Results: Serbia
Latest news
Netherlands
Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey will miss the match through injury. Jan Paul van Hecke is also out after picking up an injury in the game against Serbia. Up front, the focus will be on Mexx Meerdink, who has scored two goals in two appearances for the national side.
Serbia
Aleksandar Mitrović and Dušan Vlahović will both miss the match through injury.
Predicted Lineups
Predicted starting XI for the Netherlands: Verbruggen - Dumfries, Timber, van Dijk, van de Ven - Veerman, Til, Timber - Summerville, Meerdinck, van Bommel.
Predicted starting XI for Serbia: Milinković-Savić - Terzić, Pavlović, Babić, Gudelj, Nedeljković - Živković, Stanković, Lukić, Tadić - Joveljić.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The referee for this match is Donatas Rumsas (Lithuania). Across his last 13 international matches, he has averaged 24 fouls recorded and 3.8 yellow cards per game - he is not in the strict category. No more than four bookings were shown in 4 of Netherlands' last 5 matches and in Serbia's previous three. Both teams have played physically in this tournament but without going overboard, and the referee's leniency suggests the total could stay low. We're going with Total Yellow Cards - Under 4.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Serbia's opponents have scored in both halves in 3 of the national team's 4 matches in this tournament, including Netherlands in their previous meeting. In 4 of their 8 matches, Netherlands have scored in both the first and second half. For a bet on the game, you can consider Netherlands to Score in Both Halves at 1.70*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Netherlands have won the corners count in 4 of their last 5 matches. Serbia have failed to win the corners battle in four consecutive games. Our prediction is Netherlands to Win Corners at 1.21*.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Four different players have scored for the Netherlands in the Nations League, but Mexx Meerdink has found the net more often than anyone else. The forward scored both of his goals against Serbia, and he could be worth backing to score again in this match. We're looking at Meerdink to Score.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Serbia with Handicap (+3.5) at 1.28* is a reliable option. Netherlands are favourites, but big wins in the Nations League have been rare for them - they have won by four or more goals only once in ten matches. Serbia regularly drop points in the Nations League, but over a span of ten matches they have not lost by more than three goals.
😱 Risky Bet
Both Teams to Score in the Second Half at 3.49* is the risky option. The logic is that Netherlands struggle to maintain concentration for the full 90 minutes. In 3 of their last 5 matches, they have both scored and conceded in the second half. That pattern also played out in the first meeting between these two sides in the tournament.
👀 If the Match Goes Off-Script
Netherlands are favourites, but they have won only once in their last four matches, drawing the other three. Serbia have lost their last five games, yet found chances in front of goal in each of them. If the visitors take advantage of the hosts' inconsistency and score first, they could hold on to the result. We're going with Draw at 7.30*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Serbia have nothing to lose after their poor start. It will be difficult for them to climb off the bottom, which means they can play with freedom rather than focusing purely on the result. The Netherlands have been playing at a high tempo in recent matches, but their attacking emphasis has not always been matched by defensive solidity. Both sides have scored in all three of their Nations League fixtures. Serbia have attackers capable of punishing even an organised defence, and the Netherlands have the quality to create chances in every half. In that context, goals at both ends looks like the logical outcome. The main bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 3-1.
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