Serbia vs Netherlands Prediction 27 September 2026
🔊 Serbia and the Netherlands come into the second round of the Nations League off contrasting opening matches. Serbia lost to Greece 2-1, conceding the decisive goal in stoppage time, while the Netherlands snatched a draw against Germany - 1-1 thanks to a Cody Gakpo goal. Veljko Paunović's side now play at home, but face a considerably more serious opponent. The match also carries an interesting managerial dimension. This is still the very start of Xavi's work with the Netherlands squad: ahead of the tournament he spoke about his intention to play with more intensity and take the initiative more often. After the draw with Germany, the Dutch have an immediate opportunity to reinforce that approach in an away fixture.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off so you don't miss any important changes.
The first official exam without history
📊 This will be the first officially recorded meeting between Serbia and the Netherlands, so there is no head-to-head record to draw on.
Serbia came up short in the closing stages
Serbia began the tournament with a defeat to Greece, despite having good reason to expect a different result during the match. Paunović's side took the lead as early as the fourth minute through Andrija Živković, and continued to stay in the game after the break. Late on, Dejan Joveljić hit the post and Saša Lukić forced the Greek goalkeeper into a save, but instead of a winning goal Serbia conceded in the 90+5th minute.
That context matters for the match against the Netherlands. Serbia will again have to do a lot of work without the ball, but there will be less room for error this time: the Dutch have more players capable of moving the ball through short passes and creating numerical advantages out wide. The return of Dušan Tadić adds experience and quality in the final pass for the hosts, but without Mitrović and Vlahović the burden on Jović and the younger forwards increases.
Paunović is also in the middle of rebuilding the team. Before the tournament began, the coach spoke about the need to reshape the squad's identity, and after the defeat to Greece Serbia now face another home match in which they must show they can compete with opponents at League A level.
Match Results: Serbia
The Netherlands are gaining momentum as the tournament progresses
The Netherlands began a new era under Xavi with a 1-1 draw against Germany. They conceded on 32 minutes but kept pushing forward and equalised in stoppage time through a spectacular Cody Gakpo volley. The Dutch had other chances too, and Germany could have extended their lead, but the hosts also had opportunities before the late goal.
For Xavi, this matters particularly because he had already made clear his desire to see the national team play intense, high-initiative football. The Netherlands have the right personnel for that approach: Tijjani Reijnders, Quinten Timber and Ryan Gravenberch can drive the ball forward, while Gakpo, Lang and Summerville are capable of creating danger in one-on-one situations.
Against Serbia, the Netherlands will have the chance to use exactly those qualities. The hosts will have to do a lot of work without the ball, and when the Dutch midfielders make runs and the wide players get forward actively, space between the lines could open up. How long Serbia can stay compact will be particularly important: if the Netherlands force the home defence into constant movement, the visitors' individual quality could prove decisive in key moments.
Match Results: Netherlands
Latest news
Serbia
❌ Serbia are without Aleksandar Mitrović, Nikola Milenković and Predrag Rajković through injury, and Dušan Vlahović is also absent from the squad for this international window.
Netherlands
❌ Brian Brobbey picked up a muscular injury in the first half of the match against Germany and will miss the remaining games of this international window. Xavi called up Joshua Zirkzee as his replacement, with Donyell Malen also absent. Memphis Depay, meanwhile, was not included in Xavi's starting XI, and Virgil van Dijk remains captain.
Predicted Lineups:
📋 Serbia predicted starting XI: Milinković-Savić - Simić, Eraković, Pavlović, Kostić - Živković, Maksimović, Milinković-Savić, Cvetković - Tadić, Jović.
📋 Netherlands predicted starting XI: Verbruggen - Dumfries, van Dijk, van Hecke, van de Ven - Gravenberch, Q. Timber - Reijnders, Gakpo, Summerville - Meerdink.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Serbia will likely have to defend for long periods against a side that likes to control the ball, so the hosts could bear the brunt of the fouling. That said, this looks like a match where both sides will be physical from the first minute: Serbia picked up two bookings against Greece, while the Netherlands collected four against Germany. With both teams needing points after the opening round, my bet is Total Yellow Cards - Over 2.5. The odds are 1.56*.
⚽ Goals Prediction
The Netherlands have enough quality to score at least twice against Serbia, and the hosts' defensive problems along with the absence of several key players increase the likelihood of the visitors finding the net. Serbia themselves are also unlikely to abandon their attacking play entirely at home. Bet: Total Goals - Over 2.5 - 1.70*.
🚩 Corner Prediction
The Netherlands will be the dominant side, which means Serbia will spend a lot of time defending in their own box. That should lead to cutbacks, blocked shots and, as a result, more corners. Given how many corners Xavi's side earned against Germany - 12 - I'm going with Netherlands to win the corner count. The odds are 1.50*.
😱 Risky Bet
This one is based on a scenario where the away side take complete control and win by at least three goals. That requires considerably more than a straightforward favourite's victory, which is what makes this bet genuinely risky. Bet: Netherlands - Handicap (-2.5) - 3.94*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Despite Serbia's home advantage, the Netherlands look the more balanced side in terms of squad quality and should be able to control large parts of the match. Even with a cautious start, I'm not considering a defeat for the visitors. Bet: Netherlands not to lose at 1.11*.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
With Depay absent and a goal against Germany to his name, Cody Gakpo has become the main attacking threat for the Netherlands. He can receive the ball out wide and drift into central areas, and with the visitors likely to enjoy more possession, his shot count should increase. Bet: Cody Gakpo to Score at 2.36*.
👀 If the match doesn't go to plan
If Serbia unexpectedly take the lead, there's no need to immediately abandon a bet on the Netherlands: should they need to chase the game, Xavi's side will increase the pressure on the hosts' goal, and their opening match against Germany showed their attacking potential is high. In that scenario, an interesting in-play option could be Netherlands Team Total - Over 1.5 goals.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Serbia can cause problems through home support and Tadić's individual quality, but their personnel losses significantly limit the hosts' attacking potential. The Netherlands have already shown against Germany that they are prepared to play as the dominant side under Xavi, and an additional factor in the visitors' favour is their greater squad depth even after Brobbey's injury.
On balance, I expect the Netherlands to gradually take control of the match and create enough chances to win. The main bet is Netherlands Team Total - Over 1.5, with a predicted scoreline of 1-4.
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Betting Tips: Serbia - Netherlands
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