Bulgaria vs Iceland Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 13 November 2026

📊 The teams’ only meeting in the current Nations League took place in Reykjavík in October, with Iceland winning 3-0. Iceland took nine corners and Bulgaria took one. Marin Petkov came on as a substitute in that match. Now he says plainly that the team must play better in Plovdiv than they did in Reykjavík.

Bulgaria have not scored more than one goal at home in six consecutive Nations League matches. The Bulgarians have scored three goals in four group matches, two of them away to Luxembourg, where Atanas Iliev and Red Star forward Balov were on the scoresheet. Meanwhile, Iceland have kept clean sheets in their last three matches. We do not expect the hosts to score twice. Bet - Bulgaria Team Total Goals - Under 1.5 at 1.30*.

There have been more than eight corners in five consecutive Bulgaria matches in the Nations League. Only one of the team's last ten games had fewer than nine corners. Iceland have a similar record: more than eight corners in 6 of their 7 matches. Even before the first meeting, the home team's coach identified set pieces and direct play as the opposition's strengths. We expect at least nine corners. Bet - Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.75*.

In all of Bulgaria’s matches in this Nations League, referees have shown between four and six yellow cards. Bulgaria themselves have received at least one yellow card in every match, including four in Reykjavik. Iceland’s figures vary more: there were six yellow cards in the head-to-head meeting and in Luxembourg, but only two in Tallinn. There have been few fouls in Iceland’s matches - in ten consecutive Nations League games, the two teams combined have committed fewer than 27 fouls. A referee has yet to be appointed for the match. The risk is that, with so few fouls, the game will be a quiet one. Still, we expect at least four yellow cards. The bet is Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.

Orri Óskarsson has already scored against Bulgaria: the Real Sociedad forward netted twice against them in October. Óskarsson could have scored a third from the penalty spot, but goalkeeper Naumov saved his shot. The striker has scored three of Iceland’s seven goals in the group. Iceland failed to score in Tallinn in the last round, and the visitors will need shots from their top scorer in Plovdiv. The Icelandic press expects the forward to start. The bet is Óskarsson to Score.

Bulgaria have lost by more than one goal only once in their last 12 home Nations League matches. Even Luxembourg beat the hosts by just one goal in the current campaign. Iceland, meanwhile, are the best away team in the group. The risk is that the hosts fail to score at all, as they did in their last home match against Estonia. But we still expect Iceland to win by one goal, with Bulgaria scoring once. The bet is Correct Score 1:2 at 7.50*.

There have been more than three goals in only one of Bulgaria's last 13 Nations League matches. Across all competitions, it has happened in just one of their last nine home matches. None of Iceland's last six matches have featured more than three goals. Our bet wins with any scoreline of three goals or fewer. Even a repeat of the heavy defeat in Reykjavik in October would not spoil the bet. The bet is Total Goals - Under 3.5 at 1.25*.

The likely scenario is that Iceland control the game and win by one goal, with Bulgaria scoring once in reply. That scenario changes if the visitors score twice early on. The hosts will then have to open up and leave space behind them. In that case, consider a convincing Iceland win and four goals in the match in live betting. Keep these markets in mind if the visitors take the lead within the first half-hour.

*The odds are approximate and may differ between bookmakers.

📌 Editor's Prediction

Bulgaria have failed to win seven of their last eight home matches. In the Nations League, the hosts have gone five consecutive home games without a win. Iceland are unbeaten in the group and have taken four points from a possible six away from home. The visitors have conceded just one goal in four rounds. It will be very difficult for the hosts to claim their first home win of the campaign against such a defence. The group leaders will not lose in Plovdiv. Bet - Iceland - Handicap 0. Predicted score - 1:2.