Greece vs Germany Prediction 4 October 2026
🔊 Greece and Germany meet again just a week after their first encounter, but both sides go into this match in a very different frame of mind. In Augsburg, the Greeks claimed a historic 1-0 victory - their first ever win against Germany. Since then, though, the hosts failed to hold on for victory against the Netherlands, while Germany comfortably dealt with Serbia. Greece nonetheless remain top of the group after three rounds. Now the German side must travel to Thessaloniki, where the hosts will play with confidence and may look to take the initiative for spells of the match. For the visitors, this is a chance to show that the Augsburg defeat was more of an exception than a true reflection of the balance of power between the two sides.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off to make sure you don't miss any important changes.
Germany currently lead the head-to-head
📊 The last meeting completely changed the statistical picture of this rivalry - Greece beat Germany for the first time in history, and did so on German soil. In Augsburg, Germany dominated territorially and controlled the ball for most of the match, but were unable to convert that advantage into a goal. Greece withstood the pressure, then capitalised on an error by the German defence to score the only goal of the game.
Head-to-head statistics Greece - Germany
Greece have learned how to stay patient
Greece began their current Nations League campaign with two wins: Ivan Jovanović's side beat Serbia and then sensationally took three points in Augsburg. Against Germany, the Greeks withstood serious pressure in the first half and at the start of the second before gradually levelling the game. Their ability to hold shape under sustained pressing was one of the key factors in that historic victory.
Against the Netherlands, the same approach produced results again, though not across all 90 minutes. Greece had a very strong first half and went into the break 2-0 up thanks to goals from Fotis Ioannidis and Georgios Masouras. After the interval, the opposition stepped up the pressure sharply, and Tijjani Reijnders' goal on the 89th minute denied the hosts victory. Greece had eight shots to the Netherlands' 19, yet still created enough chances for two goals.
At home, Greece will almost certainly look to stay compact without the ball and break quickly on the counter. Konstantinos Karetsas and Masouras could be particularly dangerous down the flanks. Germany will have far more of the ball, so for the hosts the key will not be the volume of attacks but the quality of the moments that arise from turnovers.
Match Results: Greece
First win under Klopp
The defeat to Greece was Germany's first under Jürgen Klopp, but they responded convincingly in their next match. They beat Serbia 2-0 and were fully in control during the first half, registering 16 shots to their opponents' none. Tom Bischof opened the scoring on 39 minutes, and Florian Wirtz doubled the lead after the break.
Germany gave Serbia almost nothing - just one shot on target for Urbig to deal with. Following the defeat to Greece, Klopp changed his line-up and got a much more active performance going forward. The team moved the ball quicker, used the flanks more often and consistently won it back after losing possession. If Germany can bring that same intensity to the match in Thessaloniki, Greece will find it considerably harder to repeat the pattern of the first meeting.
That said, the visitors need to avoid falling into the same trap as in Augsburg. Greece are comfortable when the opposition holds the ball for long periods and has to find space for itself against a compact defence. So Germany would do well not simply to build possession, but to move the ball to the flanks more quickly and create overloads around the penalty area.
Match Results: Germany
Latest news
Greece
❌ Christos Tzolis was forced off in the 18th minute of the match against the Netherlands with a muscle injury. The player wanted to continue, but Jovanović decided to substitute the winger as a precaution. His availability for Sunday is therefore in doubt. Masouras, who came on as his replacement, more than filled the void, scoring and providing an assist against the Netherlands.
Germany
❌ Kai Havertz missed the match against Serbia through a minor injury. His availability for the upcoming game remains in doubt. Nick Woltemade started in his place against Serbia.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Greece: Tzolakis - Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas - Karetsas, Androutsos, Kourbelis, Masouras - Ioannidis, Pavlidis.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Germany: Urbig - Treu, Thiaw, Anton, Mittelstädt - Carl, Pavlovic, Bischof, El Mala - Wirtz, Burkardt.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
In the first meeting, Greece received four yellow cards and Germany one. That tally for the hosts was fairly predictable: they spent most of the match defending and responding to the opposition's attacks, and the high volume of duels inevitably increased the risk of bookings. The second leg could follow a similar pattern, with Germany again taking control of the ball and Greece having to do a lot of work without it.
Given the nature of the first match and the importance of the result for both sides, I'm expecting at least four bookings here. Prediction: Total Bookings - Over 2.5 yellow cards. Odds - 1.49*.
⚽ Goals Prediction
The first meeting ended with a minimal scoreline, but the current picture looks somewhat different. The Germans had 32 shots against Serbia, while the Greeks have shown on more than one occasion that they are capable of causing problems even for opponents with a high percentage of possession. I am not expecting a clean sheet from either side in Thessaloniki and I think the match will be a high-scoring one. Prediction: Total Goals - Over 2.5 at 1.75*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
Greece won six corners against the Netherlands, while their opponents earned eight. That fits well with what can be expected in the match against Germany too: the visitors should spend a lot of time in the opposition half, use the flanks and regularly deliver the ball into the box, especially if Woltemade starts. Greece, meanwhile, are unlikely to abandon their own attacking play and should be capable of earning several corners from quick breaks. All of that points towards a fairly high total number of set pieces. Prediction: Total Corners - Over 8.5 at odds of 1.49*.
😱 Risky Bet
Greece already showed against the Netherlands that they are capable of putting in a strong first half and going into the break with a lead. The current generation of the squad is talented enough, with many players turning out for leading European clubs and capable of causing problems even for higher-ranked opponents. On home soil, Greece will surely look to start the match aggressively again and make use of the crowd's support. Prediction: Greece to Win the First Half. Odds: 4.20*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
A more cautious option is to back goals in this match. Germany should be taking the game to their opponents, and Greece have already shown in recent matches that they can score even with limited possession. Two goals in this fixture looks a perfectly achievable target. Prediction: Total Goals - Over 1.5 at odds of 1.22*.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Following Germany's goal against Serbia, Florian Wirtz is worth keeping an eye on. In the previous match against Greece, Germany attacked for long periods but struggled in the final third, whereas against Serbia they were able to convert that pressure into goals. Wirtz remains one of the key players through whom Germany will look to create in the final third. Prediction: Florian Wirtz to have at least 1 shot on target - 1.51*.
👀 If the match doesn't go to plan
If the score is still 0-0 after half an hour, that won't necessarily mean a repeat of the match in Augsburg. Germany will surely keep increasing the pressure, and Greece will have more and more space for counter-attacks as their opponents push their defensive line higher.
So in-play, a more aggressive option for the second half is worth considering. Given how both teams have performed in their recent matches, my pick is Total Goals - Over 1.5 in the 2nd half.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The first match showed that Greece are capable of neutralising Germany through a compact defence and patient play without the ball. But the return leg is being played in Thessaloniki, and Germany come into it after a considerably more convincing performance against Serbia. Another key factor is that Germany now need to find ways to break down the defence themselves, while Greece have gained extra confidence from their draw with the Netherlands.
I expect a more open match than a week ago. Germany should create enough chances, but Greece at home are also capable of exploiting space and scoring. My main selection is therefore Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 2-2.
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Betting Tips: Greece - Germany
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