Northern Ireland vs Hungary Prediction 28 September 2026
🔊 Northern Ireland got their Nations League campaign off to a near-perfect start. In Tbilisi, they survived a penalty from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, saved by Pierce Charles, before Shea Charles drove in the winner in the 99th minute. It was Northern Ireland's first victory in Nations League B.
Hungary's start was the opposite. Marco Rossi's side had 57% possession, managed 17 shots and created chances worth 2.03 xG, yet failed to score against Ukraine and lost 0-1. That result means the visitors arrive in Belfast under pressure: Northern Ireland can afford to sit on a result, while Hungary, after dropping points at home, need to find a goal again.
🔁 Don't miss important pre-match updates: we'll be adding information on line-ups, injuries and other developments that could affect the balance of the match.
Head-to-head results offer little insight here.
📊 The two sides have met twice. The first match took place in autumn 2015, when they drew 1-1 in UEFA Euro 2016 qualifying. The second, a friendly, was played in early 2022 and ended in a Hungarian victory (1-0).
Head-to-head statistics Northern Ireland - Hungary
Northern Ireland: You don’t need to dominate possession to win
🇬🇧 In Tbilisi, O'Neill's side had just 38% possession, lost the corner count 1-9, yet still managed 12 shots and created enough chances to make the win look anything but fortunate. Northern Ireland calmly absorbed the pressure, held together after the penalty, and waited for their moment in the final attack.
That is exactly the kind of approach that could work against Hungary too. The hosts do not necessarily need to take control of the ball and build patiently around the penalty area. They can again let the opposition have more possession and look for openings through Isaac Price, Jamie Donley and runs from deep. After picking up three points in Georgia, that approach looks all the more convincing.
Match Results: Northern Ireland
Hungary: Squad Depth Issues and Struggles in Front of Goal
🇭🇺 On the balance of play against Ukraine, Hungary deserved more. They had 17 shots to their opponents' 10, put four on target, and Daniel Lukacs hit the woodwork early in the match. The manager noted after the game that the problem was not attitude or the quality of their play, but finishing.
And finishing is now the main concern. Hungary go into the September international window without Barnabas Varga and Roland Sallai, their two regular sources of attacking threat. That puts more of the attacking responsibility on Dominik Szoboszlai. In Belfast, there will almost certainly be even less space than there was against Ukraine.
Match Results: Hungary
Latest news
Northern Ireland
❌ Conor Bradley, Alistair McCann and Brodie Lyons are all still recovering from injuries and were not included in the September squad. Dan Ballard is a doubt after he felt a problem with his hamstring late in the match against Georgia and was substituted.
🔁 Update, 28 September, 9:51 UTC:
- Dan Ballard will not be available to Northern Ireland's defence for the remaining matches. The centre-back has left the squad due to a thigh problem. Northern Ireland, however, are accustomed to managing without one of the country's most expensive players - before the match in Georgia, Ballard had missed five consecutive games.
Hungary
❌ Barnabas Varga, Roland Sallai and Callum Styles have dropped out since the initial squad announcement.
🔁 Update, 28 September, 12:41 UTC:
- Damir Redžić will miss the match with an ankle injury sustained against Ukraine. The winger has featured in each of Hungary's last six matches, so his absence could seriously affect the options available to the visitors' coaching staff.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Northern Ireland: Charles - Atcheson, Ballard, Brown - Hume, Charles, Galbraith, Devenny - Kelly, Price - Donnley.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Hungary: Toth - Bolla, Orban, Csinger, Kerkez - Schafer, Csongvai, Vitalis - Szoboszlai - Jurek, Lukacs.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Recent matches for both sides point towards low scoring. Four of Northern Ireland's last five games have ended with two goals or fewer. Hungary tell a similar story - only one of their last five matches has been high-scoring.
Matchday 1 reinforced the trend: both Group B2 fixtures finished 1-0. Northern Ireland showed they are comfortable in tight, low-space matches, while Hungary without Varga and Szalai may again lack the quality to finish chances. Our bet: Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 1.50*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Over their last five matches, Northern Ireland's average total corners per game is 9.6, and Hungary's is 9.2. However, both sides rarely reach double figures for corners in a match.
Matchday 1 was quiet in this regard: Northern Ireland won just one corner, Hungary four. In Belfast, the hosts may again deliberately sit back and concede territory, while Hungary do not always take their positional attacks to the point of winning a corner. Our prediction: Total Corners - Under 9.5 at 1.58*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Northern Ireland spent most of their match in Georgia without the ball, committed 14 fouls and picked up three yellow cards. O'Neil's side have no hesitation in stopping attacks before they reach their own penalty area.
Against Hungary, the pattern could be similar. Szoboszlai, Kerkez and the visitors' midfielders will have more of the ball, and the hosts will again need to meet them frequently in transition and break up their runs. In that scenario, Northern Ireland look the more likely side to accumulate yellow cards. We're taking Northern Ireland to receive more yellow cards at 2.35*.
🚀 Player Statistic Bet
Szoboszlai played the full match against Ukraine and was Hungary's key figure in the final third. Set pieces went through him, he constantly looked for the final pass and got involved in finishing himself. With Varga and Szalai absent, his role around the penalty area becomes even more prominent.
Northern Ireland are capable of defending deep, so the visitors may not create many clear-cut chances. But in that kind of football, a player who can settle an episode with a shot from outside the box or from a set piece is especially valuable. We're backing Dominik Szoboszlai to score at 4.00*.
😱 Risky Bet
This fixture could easily settle into a game where neither side gains a meaningful advantage. Northern Ireland are satisfied with their start and have no need to force things, while Hungary, following the defeat to Ukraine, will almost certainly be more cautious about giving the ball away.
A 0-0 or 1-1 is easy to picture given recent form as well. The hosts can sit without the ball, the visitors can control territory, but they are currently struggling with that final shot. Our risky bet: Draw at 3.05*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Northern Ireland have won three of their last four home matches and now return to Belfast after a historic victory in Tbilisi. The team took not only three points but also a significant emotional boost ahead of their first home fixture of the competition.
Hungary, meanwhile, arrive after a defeat and without several key attacking players. Even if the visitors again take the majority of possession, breaking down Northern Ireland's compact structure will not be straightforward. We're backing Northern Ireland not to lose at 1.42*.
👀 If the Match Goes Another Way
The main assumption is that Northern Ireland will be able to keep Hungary away from dangerous areas for long periods. But against Ukraine, Hungary created chances worth roughly two goals and had 17 shots. Another goalless return with that volume of attempts is not guaranteed.
If the visitors score first, the hosts will have to abandon their comfortable low block and push their line higher. The match could then open up sharply, with Szoboszlai and Kerkez finding space for quick counter-attacks. Our alternative pick: Hungary to Score First at 3.00*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
Both sides had contrasting matchday one experiences but ended up with the same result. Northern Ireland won through patience and discipline, while Hungary lost despite having plenty of shots and possession.
In Belfast, there is no reason for the hosts to change their approach dramatically. Northern Ireland are comfortable in a tight, attritional game, and without two key attacking players, Hungary will find it difficult to turn ball possession into goals. The match could well be decided by one or two moments. Predicted score: 1-1. Main bet: Total Goals - Under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Northern Ireland - Hungary
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