Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction 26 July 2026
Gremio are in a relegation battle - sitting just above the danger zone and needing points every week. Fluminense are in the top half but dropped out of the top three after round 19. The contrast is clear: the hosts are playing under real pressure, the visitors have a bit more breathing room. Neither side has been consistent, and recent meetings between them haven't produced many goals.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the sides took place on 28 January 2026 and ended 2-1. Here's the key stats from that game (Fluminense were the home side):
- possession: 52% vs 48%;
- corners: 3 vs 6;
- fouls: 13 vs 13;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- shots on target: 6 vs 3.
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Grêmio and Fluminense:
- 47 matches played;
- home wins - 24, away wins - 11, draws - 12;
- goals - 66 vs 43;
- average first-half total - 1.04, second-half - 1.28;
- average match total - 2.32.
Head-to-head statistics Gremio - Fluminense
Gremio Team Overview
Their last official match was played in the Copa Sudamericana (Bolivar at home, Gremio away). Final score: 3-2.
Match stats (Gremio vs Bolivar):
- Possession: 44% vs 56%
- Corners: 6 vs 6
- Fouls: 5 vs 12
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 0
- Shots on target: 5 vs 10
Gremio are having a rough season - just 5 wins in 19 matches and an average of 1.11 goals per game. In the last five rounds, they've managed one win, one draw and three defeats, conceding regularly at an average of 1.4 goals per ten-match stretch. The priority is survival, which means staying tight at the back and keeping things pragmatic. The low-scoring trend is hard to ignore: they've gone under 1.5 goals in 11 of their last 12 Série A matches.
Match Results: Gremio
Fluminense Team Overview
The away side's last official match took place in the Série A (Fluminense at home, Bragantino away). It finished 1-1.
Match stats (Fluminense vs Bragantino):
- possession: 67% vs 33%;
- corners: 11 vs 4;
- fouls: 6 vs 9;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 4;
- shots on target: 4 vs 2.
Fluminense have been more consistent overall - nine wins and five defeats from nineteen matches, with a fairly solid defence that concedes an average of 1.26 goals per game. Over the last five rounds they've picked up one win, three draws and one defeat, which has dropped them to fourth, behind Atletico Paranaense. They've averaged 1.4 goals per match across their last ten league games, though in their last six away matches they have not scored over 1.5 goals in any game.
Match Results: Fluminense
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head:
- played - 47;
- home wins - 24, away wins - 11, draws - 12.
Stats: Grêmio vs Fluminense
- matches in the tournament: 19 vs 19;
- wins: 5 vs 9;
- win rate: 26% vs 47%;
- losses: 8 vs 5;
- draws: 6 vs 5.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 4 vs 4;
- losses: 4 vs 2;
- draws: 2 vs 4.
Total Prediction
Head-to-head (average total):
- home team - 1.4, away team - 0.91;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.32;
- both teams scored: all time - 21 times; at the home team's ground - 10 times.
Average total stats: Grêmio vs Fluminense
- in the tournament: 2.42 vs 2.79;
- goals scored: 1.11 vs 1.53;
- 1st half: 0.42 vs 0.74;
- 2nd half: 0.68 vs 0.79;
- Grêmio: at home in the tournament - 1.67;
- Fluminense: away in the tournament - 1.22;
- last 10 matches: 1.8 (home - 1.6) vs 1.4 (away - 0.5).
- Fluminense have scored under 1.5 goals away in 16 of their last 18 head-to-head meetings.
- Fluminense have scored under 1.5 goals away in 6 matches in a row.
Corners Prediction
Grêmio: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 4; at home - 5;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.1; at home - 4.6.
Fluminense: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 5.79, away - 5.56;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.6; away - 3.5.
- Grêmio have taken over 4.5 corners at home in 7 of their last 8 head-to-head meetings (Série A).
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- played - 47;
- both teams scored all time - 21 times;
- at the home team's ground - 10 times.
Stats: Grêmio vs Fluminense
- played in the tournament: 19 vs 19;
- season matches with both teams scoring (BTTS): 11 vs 14;
- Grêmio: BTTS at home - 5 (56%);
- Fluminense: BTTS away - 6 (67%).
Last 10 matches:
- BTTS matches: 6 vs 8;
- Grêmio: BTTS at home - 3 (60%);
- Fluminense: BTTS away - 2 (50%).
- Grêmio have scored and conceded in 5 matches in a row.
- Fluminense have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common scorelines this season:
- most frequent scoreline in the tournament: 1:1 (28/189, 14.8%);
- Grêmio at home most often finish: 0:0, 0:1, 1:0, 1:1, 1:3, 2:0, 2:1, 3:2, 5:3 (1/9, 11.1%);
- Fluminense away most often: 1:1 (3/9, 33.3%).
Based on stats and probability distribution, the algorithm's top 3 predicted scorelines:
1:1 - 13.34% (odds 6.5)
0:1 - 9.52% (odds 8.5)
1:0 - 8.62% (odds 8.5)
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Looking at both teams' current form and what they need from this match, expect something pragmatic. Grêmio will be focused on picking up points, and Fluminense are unlikely to push the tempo - a cautious approach suits them better right now. The stats back this up too: total goals under 2.5 landed in six of Fluminense's last six away matches, and Grêmio's attack in Série A rarely gets past one goal per game. Neither side has the conditions for open football at the moment. The bet is total goals under 2.5. Predicted score - 1:1.
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Betting Tips: Gremio - Fluminense
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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