Groningen vs Ajax Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 18 October 2026
📢 One of the most interesting fixtures in the ninth round of the Eredivisie will be Groningen against Ajax. Both sides have made confident starts to the season and sit close together in the table: the hosts are sixth, while the visitors are fifth. The two teams have also been playing attractive attacking football - Groningen are averaging 2.5 goals per game, while Ajax's figure stands at 2.75. Both clubs are looking to close the gap on the leading group, which makes this match significant in the race for the top positions.
Head-to-Head
Ajax beat Groningen 2-0 in their Eredivisie match on 21 May 2026. Groningen had more attacking actions - 128 to 86 - but lost the shots on target count 1-5 and the expected goals 0.19-1.66.
Across 38 official meetings, Ajax have won 27, Groningen six, with five draws. On Groningen's own ground, Ajax's advantage is less pronounced: nine wins to the hosts' six.
Head-to-head statistics Groningen - Ajax
Groningen have seen six consecutive home games produce at least two goals
Groningen's previous Eredivisie match 11 October 2026 saw them thrash Excelsior away from home 5-1. Despite the overall shot count being fairly even at 14-16, Groningen were far more accurate, hitting the target nine times compared to Excelsior's two.
Groningen have made a solid start to the season and sit sixth in the table with 14 points. Their last five matches have brought two wins, two draws and one defeat, making for inconsistent results. Over their last ten matches they have won five, drawn two and lost three, maintaining reasonable form. Their main strength remains a productive attack, which is averaging 2.5 goals per game this season. At home in particular, Groningen have scored at least twice in six consecutive matches. However, they are conceding 1.75 goals per game, so even their attacking efficiency does not always translate into victories.
Match Results: Groningen
Ajax have claimed five wins in their last six away matches
Ajax lost to Hajduk Split away in their last Conference League match 15 October 2026 - 1:2. They had more possession (57%) and attempted more attacks (124 vs 79), but the opposition had twice as many shots on target - eight to four.
Ajax sit fifth in the table with 15 points, still in contention among the leading sides in the championship. They have been potent in attack this season, averaging 2.75 goals scored per match alongside 1.25 conceded. Over their last ten matches, the scoring rate is even higher at 3 goals per game, though the defence has been conceding 1.7. Ajax have been particularly strong away from home, winning five of their previous six matches on the road. Their games have also been consistently high-scoring: at least four goals have been scored in nine of their last ten matches.
Match Results: Ajax Amsterdam
Latest news
Groningen
Groningen have five injury concerns ahead of the match, with Elvis van der Laan, Malcolm Jeng, Nikolas Brandis, Tyrique Mesera and Travis Hernes all currently listed as injured. However, all five are close to returning.
Ajax Amsterdam
Ajax also have several squad concerns. Anton Gaaei and Kasper Dolberg are unavailable due to injuries, while Steven Berghuis, Caio Henrique and Daley Blind are at different stages of recovery. Dolberg has been ruled out for the rest of the season.
Total Goals Prediction
In 9 of Ajax's last 10 matches, the total has gone over 3.5 goals, pointing to the team's high scoring output. Both sides also show strong attacking numbers: Groningen average 2.25 goals per home game this season, while Ajax average 3.67 away. There are no contradicting trends towards low-scoring football, which makes Total Goals - Over 3.5 the selected bet at odds of 1.93*.
Corners Prediction
Groningen have consistently had more than 4.5 corners at home - a run of 7 consecutive matches confirms their high potential in this area. The head-to-head trend is less pronounced, so a bet on Groningen Team Total Corners - Over 4.5 at 2.1* looks justified.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Groningen have both scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches, which points to a high likelihood of goals at both ends. Ajax have been highly productive away from home this season, averaging 3.67 goals per game, while Groningen average 2.25 at home. Both Teams to Score - Yes is priced at 1.35*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes are 2:2 (7.99%), 1:1 (7.98%) and 1:2 (7.89%). The probabilities are spread fairly evenly, with no clear leader among the three. This reflects an expectation of a competitive, goal-filled match.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Ajax are considered favourites thanks to their stronger squad and high attacking potential, but Groningen should not be underestimated. The hosts are also in good form and are capable of causing serious problems for the Amsterdam side's defence. Ajax matches are regularly high-scoring: the team are active going forward but far from reliable at the back, which means the over 3.5 goals line comes in fairly often. Given both sides' attacking capabilities and open style of play, the editor's main prediction is Total Goals - Over 3.5.
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Betting Tips: Groningen - Ajax Amsterdam
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