Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 16 October 2026
📢 Heerenveen and Excelsior head into this meeting having had almost identical starts to the Eredivisie season. The hosts sit tenth, while the visitors are one place above them, ahead by just two points. Neither side has been particularly consistent so far - both draw regularly and have not managed many wins. Excelsior have looked reasonably comfortable away from home, while Heerenveen have not always been able to make the most of playing in front of their own supporters. This match will give one of them the chance to strengthen their position in the middle of the table.
Head-to-Head
Heerenveen beat Excelsior 2-1 away in an Eredivisie match 07 March 2026, despite the hosts having 21 shots to 10 and a higher xG - 2.7 to 1.84.
In 27 official meetings, Heerenveen have won 16 times against eight wins for Excelsior, with three draws. At home, Heerenveen have won nine of their 13 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head statistics Heerenveen - Excelsior
Heerenveen have managed just two wins in their last ten matches, struggling to find any consistency
Heerenveen lost 0-2 away to PSV in their last Eredivisie match 9 October 2026. The visitors had more shots on target - five to two - but failed to score.
Heerenveen sit tenth in the table after the opening stretch of the season, with nine points. The team have been unable to find any consistency, winning just two of their last ten matches, with four draws and four defeats. The picture over a shorter run is equally unconvincing: one win, two draws and two defeats from five matches. Heerenveen are averaging 1.3 goals scored per game, while their defence is conceding 1.4, which is preventing them from picking up results regularly. Their most recent match ended in a draw, again without a win.
Match Results: Heerenveen
Excelsior are unbeaten in their last eight away matches, averaging two goals per game
In their last Eredivisie match on 11 October 2026, Excelsior lost at home to Groningen 1-5. The hosts had more shots - 16 to 14 - but only two of them were on target, compared to nine for Groningen.
Excelsior sit ninth in the table with 11 points, two ahead of their upcoming opponents. Over their last ten matches, the team have won four, drawn three and lost three, showing mixed results. In the five matches before this one, they won two, drew one and lost two, with their most recent match ending in a win. Their main strength is an attack that averages 2 goals per game, though the defence concedes a fair amount - 1.7 per match. Excelsior are particularly solid away from home, where they have gone eight matches in a row without defeat.
Match Results: Excelsior
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the top three most likely outcomes are: 1-1 (10.87%), 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-1 (8.01%). The 1-1 draw has the highest probability, though the gap between the three options is not particularly large. This reflects the balance of power between the two sides and suggests a closely contested match.
Reliable Bet
Excelsior have scored at least one goal in 12 consecutive matches, and away from home they are averaging 2.75 goals per game this season and 2.8 over their last 10 away matches. Heerenveen, meanwhile, have been conceding an average of 1 goal per game in their last 10 home matches. Against that backdrop, Excelsior Team Total - Over 0.5 at 1.28* looks a reliable option.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Heerenveen are considered clear favourites, though that status looks somewhat questionable given the current form of both sides. The hosts have not been particularly consistent even at home, while Excelsior have been performing well away from home and are still unbeaten on the road. The two teams are also separated by just two points, so it is hard to talk about any significant Heerenveen superiority. Our pick, therefore, is Excelsior not to lose.
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Betting Tips: Heerenveen - Excelsior
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