Ajax vs Groningen Prediction 21 May 2026
🔊 Ajax slipped out of the top three in the closing stages of the Eredivisie and even dropped out of the top four. Instead of a Champions League spot, the Amsterdam side now have to fight for a place in the Conference League. In the first round, they face Groningen, who finished ninth in the league. Can the visitors, buoyed by a two-match winning streak, put up a fight against the more illustrious opponents? Our editorial team offers their prediction on the odds for this clash.
Head-to-Head
The most recent official meeting between these sides took place on 07 March 2026, with Groningen claiming a 3-1 victory. Here’s a comparative breakdown of the key stats from that match (Groningen played at home):
- Possession: 40% vs 60%;
- Corners: 6 vs 8;
- Fouls: 5 vs 7;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- Shots on target: 6 vs 5.
📊Statistical preview of official matches between the teams Ajax Amsterdam and Groningen:
- played 37 matches;
- number of wins for the home team - 26, for the away team - 6, draws - 5;
- number of goals - 73 against 29;
- average total in the 1st half - 1.03, in the 2nd half - 1.73;
- average total goals in the match - 2.76.
Head-to-head statistics Ajax - Groningen
Ajax Amsterdam Team Overview
Ajax last played an official match on in the Eredivisie, battling to a goalless draw away against Heerenveen (0-0).
The key stats from the match (Ajax vs Heerenveen):
- Possession: 47% vs 53%;
- Corners: 6 vs 10;
- Fouls: 8 vs 9;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 0;
- Shots on target: 6 vs 5.
Ajax certainly won't look back on this Eredivisie campaign as a success. For much of the season, the team battled for a spot on the podium, but ultimately slipped out of the top four and finished fifth, earning only a place in the play-offs for the UEFA Europa Conference League. Still, Ajax’s attack remains potent, averaging 1.82 goals per match. Defensively, they have also shown solid organization, conceding just 1.21 goals per game over the season-a figure that drops to exactly one goal per match across their last ten outings.
Match Results: Ajax Amsterdam
Groningen Team Overview
Groningen last played an official match on in the Eredivisie, securing a 2-1 away win over Heracles Almelo.
The key stats from the game (Groningen vs Heracles Almelo) were as follows:
- Possession: 47% vs 53%;
- Corners: 5 vs 9;
- Fouls committed: 5 vs 8;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- Shots on target: 5 vs 2.
Groningen head into this fixture on the back of two consecutive wins, bouncing back after a three-game winless streak. At the end of the Eredivisie campaign, they secured a spot just inside the top nine, finishing five points clear of Sparta to clinch a place in the Conference League playoffs. Throughout the season, Groningen’s attacking output has been modest-averaging just 1.44 goals per game while conceding 1.32. Over their last ten matches, their scoring rate has improved slightly to 1.8 goals per game, though their defensive record has remained unchanged.
Match Results: Groningen
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 37;
- home team wins - 26, away team wins - 6, draws - 5.
Statistics: Ajax Amsterdam vs Groningen
- matches played in the tournament: 34 vs 34;
- wins: 14 vs 14;
- win percentage: 41% vs 41%;
- losses: 6 vs 14;
- draws: 14 vs 6.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 3 vs 5;
- losses: 3 vs 3;
- draws: 4 vs 2.
- Ajax Amsterdam have won in last 17 home games against Groningen (Eredivisie).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.97, the guests - 0.78;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.76;
- both teams scored: overall - 17; at the home team's field - 6.
Statistics: Ajax Amsterdam vs Groningen
- average total in the tournament: 3.03 vs 2.76;
- average total goals scored: 1.82 vs 1.44;
- average total in the 1st half: 1.06 vs 0.62;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.76 vs 0.82;
- Ajax Amsterdam: average total at home in the tournament - 1.88;
- Groningen: average total away in the tournament - 1.29;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.5 (home - 2) vs 1.8 (away - 1.6).
- Groningen have scored under 1.5 goals in last 17 away games against Ajax Amsterdam (Eredivisie).
Prediction on corners
Ajax Amsterdam: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.85; at home field - 5.35;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 4.2; at home field - 4.25.
Groningen: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 6.26, away - 5.65;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 6.2; away - 7.2.
- Groningen have taken under 4.5 corners in 7 of last 8 away games against Ajax Amsterdam (Eredivisie).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 37;
- both teams scored all-time - 17 times;
- on the home team’s field - 6 times.
Statistics: Ajax Amsterdam vs Groningen
- number of matches played in the tournament: 34 vs 34;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 23 vs 19;
- number of BTTS matches for Ajax Amsterdam at home - 10 (59%);
- number of BTTS matches for Groningen away - 10 (59%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 7;
- BTTS matches for Ajax Amsterdam at home - 3 (75%);
- BTTS matches for Groningen away - 4 (80%).
- Ajax Amsterdam have scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 games against Groningen (Eredivisie).
- Ajax Amsterdam have scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 home games.
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (34/306, 11.1%);
- Ajax Amsterdam at home most often finish matches: 2:0 (5/17, 29.4%);
- Groningen away most often play: 0:2 , 1:2 , 2:0 (3/17, 17.6%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 10.72% (odds 7.5)
2:1 - 10.1% (odds 8)
1:0 - 8.85% (odds 10)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Ajax are fighting for a European spot, and their motivation at the start of the playoffs will be sky-high. They’ve been prolific in attack this season, but their defense has been far from watertight. Groningen, meanwhile, have only matched Ajax defensively, but have shown real improvement going forward in the closing stages of the campaign. Given the stakes and pressure of this match, we might not see a wide-open contest, so odds on total goals could be misleading. Still, both sides look well capable of finding the net-both teams have scored in six of their last seven head-to-head meetings. Our prediction: both teams to score (yes).
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Betting Tips: Ajax Amsterdam - Groningen
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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