Greece vs Serbia Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 16 November 2026

📊 The teams’ first meeting in September was a real test of character. Serbia opened the scoring as early as the fourth minute but then gradually ceded the initiative. Greece struggled for a long time to make their advantage and numerous chances count, but their patience paid off with a winning goal in the fifth minute of stoppage time (2-1). Even with a clear advantage in play, Greece still had to survive several difficult moments.

After conceding seven in Amsterdam, Greece will surely want to show a completely different side, but their desire to make amends will not necessarily lead to a rout. Ivan Jovanović’s side usually prefer to get results through organised possession and gradually building an advantage. Greece have scored no more than two goals in 11 of their last 12 Nations League matches. The hosts will look for chances to score in both halves, but will not maintain maximum intensity throughout the full 90 minutes. If Greece take the lead and events in Berlin start to go their way, the need to take additional risks will diminish. Bet: Greece Team Total Goals - Under 2.5 at odds of 1.51*.

In their September match against Serbia, Greece had 26 shots, nine on target, and around 61% possession, yet won only six corners. This is a good example of how sustained pressure does not necessarily lead to a high number of corners. The likely pattern of scoring will also be an important factor. If the hosts score early enough, they will be able to play more patiently without constantly trying to create chances. The statistics support this scenario: Greece have not taken more than six corners in any of their last ten matches, while in the Nations League at home, they have stayed at or below that mark in 8 of 9 matches. Bet: Greece Team Total Corners - Under 6.5 at odds of 1.56*.

The league standings give this match a very different emotional significance for the two sides. Serbia can no longer finish higher than fourth, while Greece are still fighting for a place in the quarter-finals. Greece - Yellow Cards Handicap (+1.5) would win even if Greece receive one fewer yellow card than their opponents. The bet therefore does not require the hosts to receive more yellow cards. We expect a tense match in which Greece are unlikely to trail their opponents by much in fouls worthy of a booking. The odds for this outcome are 1.56*.

Tzolis was one of the standout performers in the first match against Serbia. The winger had six shots, put two on target and had 12 touches in the opposition box. His role could become even more important in the return match. Serbia have serious defensive personnel problems, so the Greek wingers should have opportunities to take on defenders individually and find space between them. Tzolis does not necessarily need to score: he only needs to find a position for one good-quality shot. Given Greece’s expected attacking advantage, at least one shot on target looks like a reasonable pick. Bet: Christos Tzolis to have at least one shot on target.

Surprisingly, all five of Serbia’s defeats in the current Nations League have fallen within a fairly narrow scoring range: their opponents scored two or three goals, while Serbia failed to score only once. We expect a somewhat different game in Volos. The hosts are capable of taking the lead and then controlling the game, preventing their opponents from creating chances regularly. At the same time, Serbia’s defence is vulnerable enough for Greece to score again after the break. The main question is whether the visitors can make one of their own attacks count. If not, the match could finish 2:0; a single successful reply from Serbia would make it 2:1. Both outcomes fall within the selected range. Riskier bet: 2-3 goals in the match at odds of 2.05*.

Despite their disappointing Nations League campaign, Serbia rarely suffer heavy defeats away from home. In 20 of their last 21 away matches, they have not lost by three goals or more. Even against Germany and the Netherlands, who were clearly superior in terms of performance, the margin was usually relatively small. Greece only need three points, so after scoring one or two goals, they may focus on protecting their lead. This combination of circumstances makes Serbia - Handicap +2.5 a fairly solid option at odds of 1.23*.

*The odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.

The main threat to our scenario is a prolonged goalless draw in Volos while events in Berlin unfold unfavourably. Greece need to win, so if the hosts have still not scored after an hour, they will have to gradually abandon their cautious approach. Jovanović will bring on more attacking players and demand that the team finish their moves more aggressively. In that situation, we recommend considering Greece’s team total of seven or more shots on target. In September’s meeting in Belgrade, Greece registered nine shots on target, so that mark is achievable if they sustain the pressure.

⭐️ Editor’s Pick

The defeat to the Netherlands was a painful reminder of how high the level of competition is in League A. But Ivan Jovanović’s side now have a chance to prove that their previous successes were no fluke. We expect Greece to look to regain their confidence quickly, open the scoring in the first half and score again after the break.

Still, it would be wrong to rule out a response from Serbia entirely: Tadić and his teammates are capable of capitalising on even a single mistake by the Greek defence. However, Serbia’s run of five defeats in the Nations League is unlikely to end in Volos. Greece will secure a hard-fought but deserved victory, while the fate of their ambitions in the competition will be decided in the other match. Bet: Greece to win. Correct score prediction: 2-1.