Estonia vs Bulgaria Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 16 November 2026

📊 In the first round, on 29 September, Bulgaria and Estonia played out a goalless draw. Estonia had more chances: Markus Poom hit the post, and Patrik Kristal had a goal ruled out for offside.

📋 Estonia’s Predicted starting XI: Hein - Peetson, Paskotsi, Mets, Saliste, Sjønning-Larsen - Palumets, Käit, Shein - Ainsalu, Liivak.

📋 Bulgaria’s Predicted starting XI: Naumov - Stoyanov, Velkov, Tsenov, Hristiyan Petrov - Kraev, Gruev - Rusev, Lukas Petkov, Marin Petkov - Iliev.

Estonia have not scored more than one goal in seven consecutive Nations League matches. In five rounds of the current campaign, they have scored three goals in three different matches. All three were scored by defenders: Maksim Paskotši scored twice and Rasmus Peetson once. Bulgaria have conceded ten goals in the competition, but Estonia failed to score against them in their September meeting. We expect the hosts to score no more than once. Bet - Estonia Team Total Goals - Under 1.5 at 1.48*.

There have been more than nine corners in seven consecutive Estonia Nations League matches. Henn’s side have taken at least three in each of their last six matches in the competition. Estonia’s matches have seen few goals, but that has not affected the number of corners: we expect more than nine in Tallinn too. Bet - Total Corners - Over 9.5.

The hosts play cautiously: Estonia have received 14 yellow cards in their last nine competitive matches, and more than three only once, in a World Cup qualifier against Italy. In the Nations League, Estonia have never received more than three yellow cards. We therefore do not expect the hosts to receive a fourth yellow card. The bet is Estonia Team Total Yellow Cards - Under 3.5.

Estonia captain Maksim Paskotši, who plays for Belgian club Gent, has scored two of his team's three goals in the tournament. In September, the centre-back headed in Rasmus Peetson's cross to earn a draw in Iceland, then scored the only goal in Luxembourg on 13 November. Estonia's attacking options are limited without Rauno Sappinen, so their defenders are becoming more important in the opposition penalty area. Bet - Paskotši to score.

Estonia have kept four consecutive clean sheets, and they have yet to concede at home this year. The Estonians have also scored no more than one goal in each of their last seven Nations League matches. The risk is that the bet requires two conditions: a clean sheet and limited scoring from the hosts. Even so, we expect the Estonians to keep a clean sheet and score no more than once. Bet - Estonia Team Total Goals - Under 1.5 and Bulgaria to Score - No.

Estonia are unbeaten in six consecutive matches. Bulgaria have won just one of their last eight Nations League matches. At home this year, Estonia have neither lost nor conceded a goal. Our bet wins with any result except a Bulgaria win. Bet - Estonia to Win or Draw at 1.26*.

The likely scenario is that Estonia sit back and edge out a narrow win. An early goal for the visitors could disrupt that scenario: Bulgaria scored both their goals before half-time in Luxembourg. Estonia, who rarely score more than once, would then have to open up. If that happens, look at both teams to score and three or more goals in the match for in-play bets.

*The odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.

📌 Editor’s Pick 

There have been fewer than three goals in six consecutive Estonia Nations League matches. The hosts score sparingly but concede very little: Estonia have kept clean sheets in their last four games. Bulgaria have failed to score in three of their five matches in the competition and arrive following a heavy defeat to Iceland. With a historic year without conceding at home at stake, Estonia will protect their goal until the final minute. The bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5. Predicted score: 1:0.