Serbia vs Greece Prediction 24 September 2026
🔉 This match is a historic one for Greece - it will be the national team's first appearance in League A of the UEFA Nations League. They previously competed in a lower division, but have now reached the top tier and immediately face Serbia, Germany and the Netherlands. The opening match against Serbia is the most evenly matched fixture, and both sides know that points at the start could prove decisive in the battle to stay in the group. Neither team can afford to lose here.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before the match to make sure you don't miss any important changes.
Head-to-Head
📊 Serbia and Greece have never met in an official match before.
Head-to-head statistics Serbia - Greece
Serbia: rebuilding after failing to qualify for the 2026 World Cup
Serbia failed to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. They were drawn into a difficult group alongside England and Albania, and the defeat to their neighbours cost Dragan Stojković his job. Veljko Paunović was appointed as the new head coach, but he could not turn things around in the remaining fixtures.
Since then, Paunović has taken charge of four friendlies, and the results make for uncomfortable reading. The only win was against Saudi Arabia (2-1). The other three matches brought heavy defeats - to Spain (0-3), Cape Verde (0-3) and Mexico (1-5). There is a caveat, though: for the summer matches, the coach left out many of his key players and gave younger ones an opportunity. Those results do not reflect the team's true level, but they leave a mark.
The previous Nations League campaign was a reasonable one for Serbia. Across six group-stage matches they conceded just six goals. At home they held Spain and Denmark to goalless draws and beat Switzerland 2-0. A third-place finish sent them into the play-offs, where they eliminated Austria, including a 2-0 home win. It was their home performances that kept them in the top tier.
Match Results: Serbia
Greece: A New Chapter at the Top Level
Greece secured their place in League A back in March 2025, when they beat Scotland in the play-offs 3-1 on aggregate. It was a significant step forward for a side that had not appeared at a major tournament since the 2014 World Cup.
Their results in 2025-26 have been mixed, though. In World Cup qualifying, Greece finished third in their group with Scotland, Denmark and Belarus. Their only win in their last nine matches came against Scotland - late in qualifying, Ivan Jovanović's side held on to a 3-2 result with ten men. Friendlies have brought little encouragement either: defeats to Italy and Paraguay both by 0-1, and draws with Sweden (2-2) and Hungary (0-0).
At the same time, Greece are developing one of their most promising generations in recent years. Christos Tzolis joined Arsenal in the summer and is already getting starts. Konstantinos Karetsas moved from Genk to Borussia Dortmund for €30 million. Konstantinos Koulierakis has joined Roma. Alongside them are experienced figures in Kostas Tsimikas and Konstantinos Mavropanos, both of whom have spent several seasons in the Premier League. Jovanović has at his disposal a combination that is rare for Greece - exciting young talent alongside players tested at the highest level.
Match Results: Greece
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Serbia
The team came into the match with serious squad problems. All-time top scorer Aleksandar Mitrović was not called up due to a health issue. Dušan Vlahović picked up an injury at Beşiktaş and is also out. Key centre-back Nikola Milenković and goalkeeper Predrag Rajković are absent as well. Up front, instead of the usual pairing, Luka Jović will start - he has revived his career at AEK under Marko Nikolić. Dušan Tadić has returned after a two-year absence; the 37-year-old veteran is in good form and recently played in Champions League qualifying for NEC.
Greece
There are absences, but less painful ones. Giannis Kontelaias is out with a knee injury. Right back Lazaros Rota was not included in the squad - he has been replaced by Saliakis. Captain Anastasios Bakasetas will also miss the match. On the other hand, Konstantinos Koulierakis has recovered from injury and is ready: he came on as a substitute in Borussia's last match and has received a call-up. The core of the squad remains intact, and Ivan Jovanović has options across all lines. One additional detail: for Jovanović, this match is a return to his homeland - the Serbian coach has been in charge of the Greeks since August 2024.
Predicted Lineups:
📋 Predicted starting XI for Serbia: V. Milinković-Savić - Eraković, Pavlović, Babić - Živković, S. Milinković-Savić, Lukić, Kostić - Tadić, Samardžić - Jović
📋 Predicted starting XI for Greece: Vlachodimos - Retsos, Mavropanos, Koulierakis - Vagiannidis, Mouzakitis, Zafeiris, Tsimikas - Karetsas, Tzolis - Pavlidis
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The referee is Swede Glenn Nyberg, a Champions League-level official. At the 2026 World Cup he took charge of three matches and averaged 2.33 yellow cards per game. That sounds low, but the overall standard of physical play at the tournament was higher and cards were handed out less frequently. In European competition his average was four bookings across four 2026 World Cup qualifying matches. Add in the importance of an opening match for both sides and the contest is likely to be a fierce one. We're going with Total Yellow Cards - Over 4.5 at 1.76*.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Greece scoring in the second half is a consistent pattern. In 6 of their last 7 away matches, the Greeks found the net after the break. In the Nations League, they scored in four consecutive away games. Serbia, for their part, conceded in the second half in 4 of their last 6 matches. An interesting option is Greece Team Total Goals - Over 0.5 in the Second Half at 1.90*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Matches involving Serbia frequently feature plenty of set pieces: there were at least eight corners in 3 of their last 5 games. Greece show the same pattern - a minimum of eight in 3 of their previous 5. Two teams who like to play through the flanks and deliver crosses could comfortably generate a decent corners total. We're taking Total Corners - Over 8 at 1.62*.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Christos Tzolis is Greece's standout talent right now. In 2026 World Cup qualifying he scored three goals, the best return in the squad. He moved to Arsenal in the summer and has already established himself in the starting XI, scoring twice. A versatile player, he can operate centrally or on either flank. For the national team he has 9 goals in 34 appearances, including 3 in 9 Nations League matches. Tzolis to Score is available at 3.80*.
🎯 Safe Bet
This match is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. The statistics back that up: no more than three goals in 17 of Serbia's last 19 matches, in nine consecutive Serbia Nations League matches, and in 22 of Greece's previous 24 away games. As the reliable option, we're going with Total Goals - Under 4.5 at 1.09*.
😱 Risky Bet
Greece tend to be more active in the second half. After the break, they scored in four consecutive away Nations League matches. If they find the net while also holding firm defensively, the second half could be theirs. The prediction here is Greece to Win the Second Half at 3.14*.
👀 If the Match Goes Off-Script
Serbia have not conceded at home in the Nations League: four consecutive clean sheets. Greece have no experience of facing top-level opposition in League A, and nerves at the start could be a factor. The team may perform below their capabilities. One option to consider is a bet on Greece Not to Score, which is priced at 3.31*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Both defences have been struggling recently. Opponents have scored against Serbia in 9 of their last 10 matches. Greece have conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches. Goals have featured regularly in games involving both sides. At least two goals were scored in five consecutive Serbia matches and in 8 of Greece's last 10 away matches. That is enough to back Both Teams to Score - Yes: both sides are creating chances and both are letting the opposition respond. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Serbia - Greece
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