Belgium vs Italy Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 15 November 2026

📊 Before September, Belgium had gone four consecutive matches without beating Italy, starting with the Euro 2020 quarter-final. That run ended in Rome, where Mika Godts and substitute Dodi Lukebakio scored. After the break, goalkeeper Senne Lammens came to Belgium’s rescue more than once. That match remains Italy’s most recent defeat. All three of Belgium’s heroes in Rome played in Izmir on Thursday.

📋 Belgium's Predicted starting XI: Lammens - Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper - Tielemans, Lavia - Moreira, De Bruyne, Doku - De Ketelaere.

📋 Italy's Predicted starting XI: Donnarumma - Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori - Barella, Tonali, Frattesi - Sebastiano Esposito, Pio Esposito, Cambiaghi.

Italy have failed to score in just 1 of their last 17 Nations League matches - the September game against Belgium. They have scored at least once in nine consecutive away matches in the competition. Francesco Pio Esposito is scoring now, while midfielder Davide Frattesi also found the net against France. At home in this edition, Belgium have conceded only against France. But on Sunday, the hosts will have to attack, leaving more space for the visitors to counter-attack. We expect Italy to score in Brussels too. Bet - Italy to score at 1.30*.

Italy have not taken more than four corners in five consecutive Nations League matches. Even against France, they had exactly four corners and only 35% possession. In Brussels, the hosts will have more of the ball: Belgium need a win, while a draw will suit the visitors. We expect Mancini’s side to take no more than four corners again. Bet - Italy Team Total Corners Under 4.5 at 1.63*.

In September’s meeting between these national teams in Rome, the referee showed eight yellow cards - five to Belgium and three to Italy. There were more than three bookings in six of Italy’s last ten matches, including Thursday’s game against France (3:1). Belgium have more often had fewer bookings, but both of their matches featuring eight yellow cards came this autumn - against Italy and Turkey. Norwegian referee Espen Eskås will officiate the match; he has shown 29 yellow cards in his last six games. Only a win will do for the hosts, while a draw would also suit Italy, so there should be plenty of tension. We expect at least four bookings. Bet - Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at 1.65*.

Italy’s top scorer in this tournament is Francesco Pio Esposito, with four goals in the group stage. The striker scored twice against France and has nine goals in 14 appearances for the national team overall. If Belgium open up in search of a win, the forward will have more space. Bet - Pio Esposito to Score.

After their setback in Rome, Italy won three of their next four matches, including one against France. Belgium need a win, so the hosts will have to commit plenty of players forward. For the group’s highest-scoring team, that is the ideal scenario: space will open up behind the Belgian defenders. The risk is that a draw also suits Italy, and the visitors may sit back. Still, we expect Italy to punish Belgium on the counter-attack and secure first place. Bet - Italy to Win at 3.19*.

There have been fewer than two goals in Italy's Nations League matches only once in their last 15 games. Belgium, meanwhile, will have to attack in Brussels: only a win will do. The bet wins with any scoreline featuring two or more goals. Only a 0-0 draw or a 1-0 win for either team would let us down. The pick is Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.28*.

The likely scenario is that Belgium attack while Italy score on the counter-attack and win by one goal. That changes if the hosts score first. The visitors would then have to open up: defeat could cost Italy a place in the quarter-finals. For in-play betting, look at bets on three or more goals. Another option is Belgium to Win or Draw.

*Odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.

📌 Editor's Prediction

Italy have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 Nations League matches. Clean sheets have been rare for the Italians: Mancini's side have kept just one in their last 14 matches in the competition. Only a win will do for Belgium on Sunday, so the hosts will attack from the opening minutes. Van Bommel's side have failed to score just once in the group - at home against France. We expect both teams to score. Bet - Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score - 1:2.