Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction 16 September 2026
🔊 It took Atlético 84 minutes to break down Real Sociedad, but once they did there was no stopping them: three goals in the closing stages and a 3-0 win after two consecutive defeats. The victory took Diego Simeone's side back into the top four in La Liga and, for the time being, put an end to talk of a crisis. The key for them now is not to let that momentum slip.
Osasuna arrive having lost two in a row, and just four days after this match Atlético face the derby against Real Madrid. It's an awkward position: the hosts are the stronger side, playing at home and in good spirits, but the temptation to get the job done with minimal effort and save energy is considerable. Will they wrap things up early, or will they find themselves grinding it out again until the final minutes?
🔁 Don't miss any important pre-match updates: we'll be adding information on line-ups, injuries and other developments that could affect the balance of the game.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have met 21 times: Atlético have won 18, Osasuna just three, and there have been no draws at all. Atlético average 1.95 goals per game in these meetings, Osasuna just 0.67.
Last season Atlético won both fixtures - 1-0 at home and 2-1 away. Osasuna have occasionally managed to spring a surprise at the Metropolitano, as their big 4-1 win in spring 2024 shows. More often, though, these matches follow the same pattern: the favourite gradually takes control and grinds out the result.
Head-to-head statistics Atletico Madrid - Osasuna
Atletico Madrid Team Overview
After five rounds, Simeone's side have 10 points and a goal record of 10:6. The start has been uneven: a comfortable win over Málaga, dropped points against Villarreal, a decent away trip to Seville, then painful defeats in Bilbao and Liverpool. That made the thrashing of Sociedad important above all psychologically.
The 3-0 scoreline flatters the result somewhat, though. The board showed 0-0 until the 84th minute, after which Álex Grimaldo converted a penalty, and Jonathan David and Giuliano Simeone finished off the hosts once they had opened up.
Match Results: Atletico Madrid
Osasuna Team Overview
The first three matchdays under Luis Miguel Ramis looked promising, but September quickly soured the mood. First Osasuna were beaten 5-2 by Alavés, then lost at home to Espanyol 0-2. In the latter case things fell apart almost immediately - both goals came inside 17 minutes.
A separate concern is the dependence on Ante Budimir. Osasuna have scored five goals in five matchdays, four of them belonging to the Croatian. When opponents manage to cut him off from crosses and passes into the box, the visitors have no visible alternative plan. That kind of predictability is dangerous on a trip to the Colchoneros.
Match Results: Osasuna
Latest news
Atletico Madrid
🚑 Pablo Barrios will definitely miss the match through a muscle injury. Julián Álvarez's participation is in doubt. Alexander Sørloth is also not yet back to full fitness.
🔁 Update, 16 September, 4:02 UTC:
- Julián Álvarez will miss the match against Osasuna. According to Marca, Álvarez did not train with the main group ahead of the match. A check on the Argentine after Saturday's training session revealed no serious injury, but Julián himself would prefer to sit out the upcoming match in order to be better prepared for the game against Real Madrid on 20 August. Álvarez, Sørloth and Barrios have all been left out of Atlético's squad for the match against Osasuna. This season, Álvarez has played just three official matches and has started only one of them.
Osasuna
❌ Moi Gómez, Jorge Herrando and Aimar Oroz remain unavailable. Valentin Rozier is recovering from a hamstring injury and is a doubt for this match.
🔁 Update - 16 September, 11:52 UTC:
- Osasuna have submitted their squad list for the match in Madrid. Aimar Oroz, Jorge Herrando, Valentín Rozier and Moi Gómez are all absent from the squad that will face Atlético this evening. These absences are hard to call serious: Herrando and Oroz have missed the last two matches, while Rozier has not played at all this season. Perhaps the most significant loss in terms of quality is Gómez - without him, Osasuna failed to score against Espanyol in their previous match.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Osasuna have historically struggled to break down Atlético: just 14 goals across 21 head-to-head meetings, with both teams scoring in only 29% of those matches. A goal from the Pamplona side is more the exception than a given in this fixture.
The visitors' attack is not convincing at the moment either. Five goals in five league rounds, a heavy reliance on Budimir, and a blank against Espanyol most recently. Atlético just kept their first clean sheet in three matches and are capable of shutting out the opposition at home again. The bet: Both Teams to Score - No at 1.82*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Atlético should attack more, but the statistics don't point to a big corner advantage. The Madrid side average 4.8 corners per match, Osasuna 3.4 - a difference of under two. Recent head-to-head meetings don't give the hosts much of a cushion either. In 3 of their last 4 meetings at the Metropolitano, the visitors conceded no more than two corners. We're playing Osasuna Corners Handicap +2.5 at 1.90*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Over five league rounds, Atlético have collected nine bookings and Osasuna 12, averaging 4.2 cards per match. Head-to-head meetings tend to be relatively calm - in 4 of the last 5, there were no more than four yellows. A feisty game is possible, but five bookings would require noticeably more needle than this pair usually produces. Our pick: Total Yellow Cards - Under 4.5.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Alex Baena has settled quickly into his new club. In five La Liga matches, the midfielder already has three goals and one assist, and it has taken him fewer than 300 minutes. He doesn't hug the touchline - he consistently drops into the spaces between the lines and arrives late to finish moves.
Against Osasuna's deep defensive block, those runs could matter more than what a pure striker offers. While the defenders are occupied with the central forward, Baena should find space in front of and inside the penalty area. We're taking Alex Baena to Score.
😱 Risky Bet
Three late goals in San Sebastián could be exactly the boost Atlético needed after a difficult week. The team now return to the Metropolitano, where they have already beaten Málaga and scored twice against Villarreal.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have conceded seven goals in their last two rounds. If their defence falls apart again after the first goal, Atlético could turn this into a rout. We're playing Atlético Madrid - Handicap -2 at 3.00*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
The head-to-head record leaves little room for doubt: 18 wins for Atlético in 21 meetings. Add home advantage and the contrasting moods coming out of the previous round, and the picture is clear.
Osasuna can pack their penalty area and make life difficult for the favourites, but they would need to hold out for all 90 minutes. The current Atlético squad has too much depth for one well-organised defensive plan to guarantee the visitors anything. Our bet: Atlético Madrid to Win at 1.40*.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go to Script
We're expecting a patient game in which Atlético spend a long time looking for a way through Osasuna's defence. But Osasuna just showed how quickly that kind of plan can collapse - against Espanyol they conceded on 3 and 17 minutes.
If the hosts also find an early goal, the visitors won't be able to shut up shop. The first half would then shift sharply from a scrappy affair into an open game, where a second goal could arrive before the break. Our option: Total Goals - Over 1.5 in the 1st Half at 2.35*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
Atlético go into this match as clear favourites, but another 3-0 is unlikely. After two consecutive defeats, Osasuna will almost certainly set up more cautiously, and Simeone's side have no reason to turn a home fixture into an open game.
The visitors have managed just five goals in five league rounds, while Atlético have enough quality to control the match without taking unnecessary risks. The most likely outcome is a comfortable home win by a goal or two. Predicted score: 2-0. Main bet: Total Goals - Under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Atletico Madrid - Osasuna
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