Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction 12 May 2026
🔊 Can the "Colchoneros" muster the strength to finish the season on a high note? In the 36th round of the Spanish La Liga, El Sadar will host the clash between Osasuna and Atletico. It's important to note that Diego Simeone's side lacks significant motivation in the remaining rounds-securing third place is challenging, and their Champions League spot has long been assured. Meanwhile, the "Reds" have plenty to fight for, with a decent chance of qualifying for European competitions next season. The bookmakers give a slight edge to Alessio Lisci's team.
Head-to-Head
📊 The head-to-head history clearly indicates the dominance of the "Colchoneros"-the capital team has secured eight victories in their last ten encounters. Considering the average scoring rate over a similar period: Osasuna averages 0.7 goals, while Atletico averages 1.5. In the first round of the current championship, the "Colchoneros" emerged victorious at Wanda Metropolitano, with Thiago Almada's goal proving decisive.
Head-to-head statistics Osasuna - Atletico Madrid
Osasuna Team Overview
🔴 The Reds are not in their best form, managing just one win in their last six matches. Currently, Osasuna hold a spot in the top half of the league table, trailing the European competition places by two points. It's important to note the high efficiency of Alessio Lisci's team in home fixtures, having earned 32 points from 17 games (6th best in the league). In 2026, Osasuna have only lost once at El Sadar - to Barcelona (1-2). The Reds' average season performance shows 1.2 goals scored per game, with 1.29 conceded.
📌 In the last round of the national championship, Osasuna suffered a tough defeat against Levante (2-3). Alessio Lisci's side was leading by two goals by the 11th minute, but numerous individual errors and an early red card for Sergio Herrera led to their downfall. The Italian coach advocates for organized football, focusing on well-structured attacks and compact defense. Ante Budimir is Osasuna's top scorer in the current La Liga season, netting 17 goals in 34 matches.
Match Results: Osasuna
Atletico Madrid Team Overview
🔴 The "Colchoneros" are essentially playing out the rest of the season, with their exit from the Champions League leaving a significant mark on the players' mental state. With three matches remaining in the league, Atletico sit in 4th place, having already secured their spot in next season's premier European competition. It's important to note that the "Colchoneros" don't have a strong reputation in away matches, collecting 20 points from 17 games (7th best in the league). We'll soon find out if this will be an issue on Tuesday.
⚪ Over the weekend, Atletico fell to Celta Vigo (0-1) at the Wanda Metropolitano. The expected goals ratio highlighted Diego Simeone's team's dominance: 2.04 to 0.13. However, carelessness in finishing and a lack of cohesion among players led to their downfall in front of the home crowd. The Argentine coach favors a pragmatic 4-4-2 formation, focusing on a congested midfield. Atletico's main attacking threat is Alexander Sørloth, who has scored 12 goals in 32 matches.
Match Results: Atletico Madrid
Latest news
Osasuna
❌ In the upcoming clash, Sergio Herrera won't be available to provide any assistance - the Spanish goalkeeper received a straight red card towards the end of the first half in the previous match. Meanwhile, Victor Munoz remains sidelined as he is yet to fully recover from a troublesome muscle injury.
Atletico Madrid
❌ Atlético Madrid face a significant setback with the absence of Julián Álvarez. The Argentine forward aggravated his ankle injury during the second leg of their Champions League semifinal against Arsenal (0-1). Pablo Barrios is also out, forcing Diego Simeone to show his tactical adaptability as the Spaniard deals with a thigh injury. Recently joining the injury list is José María Giménez, who was substituted in the 20th minute against Celta (0-1). Johnny Cardoso, sidelined with an ankle injury, is unlikely to contribute for the remainder of the season. Nico González is in a similar situation, having sustained an injury during training at the end of April.
⚽ Goal Prediction
In 4 out of the last 5 matches involving Atletico Madrid, there have been no more than two goals scored. A similar trend is evident in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters between the "Reds" and "Los Colchoneros." It's crucial to consider the tactical preferences of Alessio Lisci and Diego Simeone - both managers favor a counter-attacking style, capitalizing on space. We'll go with the following bet option - total under 3 goals at odds of 1.58*.
🚩 Corner Prediction
In 9 of Osasuna's last 10 matches, there have been no more than ten corner kicks. A similar trend is seen in Atletico's last five games. This is due to limited wing play and a preference for vertical football from both sides. We'll focus on the following event - total corners under 9.5 at odds of 1.73*.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
An indispensable figure in Osasuna's lineup is Ante Budimir. The Croatian striker needs two matches to score a goal. Moreover, the 34-year-old fits perfectly into Alessio Lisci's tactical model - a powerful and tall target man with a high conversion rate. Editors' choice - Ante Budimir to score or provide an assist at odds of 1.81*.
😱 Risky Bet
"Los Colchoneros" are in a tough spot - poor atmosphere following a disheartening Champions League exit and far from their best lineup. It seems Diego Simeone and his players have resigned themselves to the remaining matches being mere formalities. Meanwhile, the "Reds" have something to fight for and prove. The home field advantage should aid Alessio Lisci's team. Editors' choice - Osasuna to win with a -1 handicap at odds of 4.12*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Our editorial team does not anticipate a goal fest - neither side has shown such tendencies this season, nor in their head-to-head clashes. We are likely to witness numerous aerial duels and intense battles. Under these conditions, existing statistical trends in scoring should continue. Editors' choice - total under 4 goals at odds of 1.17*.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
In the last league round, Osasuna displayed emotional instability, squandering a victory. A high number of individual errors and frequent lapses in transition phases often benefit opponents. Considering "Los Colchoneros'" skill and their ability to capitalize on the slightest mistake, we suggest the following bet - Atletico not to lose at odds of 1.53*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editorial Prediction
When making the main prediction, it's crucial to consider that Atlético are not in the best mental shape right now. The capital side are dealing with numerous squad issues and are also struggling with a lack of motivation. On the other hand, Alessio Lisci's team are eager to secure a spot in European competitions next season, needing positive results in the remaining matches to achieve this goal. It seems the "Reds" are poised to capitalize on the "Colchoneros'" poor away form. We predict a final score of 1-0, with the key bet being Osasuna to avoid defeat.
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Betting Tips: Osasuna - Atletico Madrid
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in 6 of last 7 home games against Atletico Madrid (La Liga).
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