Latvia vs Montenegro Prediction 2 October 2026
🔊 Montenegro are the only team in the group yet to drop a point in the Nations League, and both of their wins have come in the closing stages. Latvia have picked up just one point from two matches and are yet to score. The gap between the sides is reflected in the FIFA rankings too: Montenegro sit 80th, Latvia 137th.
Head-to-Head
📊 Latvia have yet to beat Montenegro. In October 2020, in a friendly in Podgorica, they took the lead through Igors Tarasovs, but Igor Ivanović equalised in the first minute of added time and the match ended 1-1. The most recent meeting, in September 2021 in a World Cup qualifier, also took place in Podgorica and finished 0-0. Montenegro had 21 shots to Latvia's eight that day, but could not beat Roberts Ozols.
Head-to-head statistics Latvia - Montenegro
Latvia: Niccolato’s side still searching for their first goal
Paolo Nicolato's side finished fourth in their World Cup qualifying group alongside England, Serbia and Albania. Latvia retained their place in League C only in the spring, beating Gibraltar twice in the play-offs, both times 1-0.
The new campaign began with a 0-2 defeat in Yerevan, a match in which Nicolato handed starts to five debutants. At home, Latvia drew 0-0 with Cyprus. Goalkeeper Rihards Matrevics made five saves, and in stoppage time the Cypriots hit the crossbar. After the match, Nicolato praised the team's commitment but admitted he would need to think about whether this formation suits them.
Match Results: Latvia
Montenegro: two last-minute victories
Mirko Vučinić's Montenegro have started their Nations League campaign with two wins and lead the group on six points. Their stated aim is straightforward - first place, which earns promotion to League B.
Neither win came easily. At home to Cyprus, they fell behind after the break before goals on 66 and 86 minutes secured a 2-1 victory. In Yerevan, they led twice and were pegged back twice. The team were rescued by substitute debutant Aleksa Latković, whose goal on 89 minutes gave them a 3-2 win.
Match Results: Montenegro
Latest news
Latvia
❓ The main team news is that Dennis Cirkins remains with the squad. The Queens Park Rangers defender was initially released for only two matches to avoid overloading a debutant, but the federation changed their plan and he will be available against Montenegro. Attacking midfielder Kristaps Grabovskis missed the match against Armenia due to a health issue, but the federation did not rule out him contributing further during this camp. This will be Latvia's third match in eight days, and on 5 October they face a trip to Cyprus.
Montenegro
❓ Vučinić has lost Sead Hakšabanović, with the midfielder missing the Nations League matches. Adam Marusic was not called up due to a muscle injury, and ahead of the Armenia fixture the coach added Marko Šimun to the squad. In Yerevan, Vučinić made significant changes to his starting XI due to a congested schedule. Centre-back Andrej Đurić made his debut, Stefan Lončar and Dušan Vuković were given their chances, and captain Stevan Jovetić started on the bench. Bodin Tomašević, Stefan Milić, Jonathan Drešaj and Marko Perović were all left out of the squad for that match. After Riga, Montenegro host Armenia on 5 October.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Latvia: Matrevics - Melniks, Cernomordijs, Cirkins - Savalnieks, Vapne, Emsis, Ciganiks - Uldrikis, Zelenkovs, Gutkovskis.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Montenegro: Popovic - Roganovic, Djuric, Savic, Gasevic - Loncar, Jankovic, Bulatovic - Vukovic, Osmajic, Krstovic.
⚽️ Goals prediction
Montenegro have conceded after half-time in 7 of their last 8 matches. In the Nations League it happened in both rounds: Cyprus took the lead in the second half, and Armenia equalised on 65 minutes. Latvia only need one good moment to get their first goal of the tournament, and the chances of that increase after the break. The pick is Latvia to score in the second half.
🚩 Corners prediction
There were more than eight corners in 7 of Latvia's last 8 home matches, and in 10 of Montenegro's last 11 away matches. In their last ten matches, Latvia's opponents have taken 66 corners while Latvia themselves have taken 44. Montenegro, by contrast, tend to take more themselves: 55 of their own against 43 conceded. We expect the visitors to push forward, with the combined corner count exceeding eight. The pick is Total Corners - Over 8.5.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
In their last ten matches, Latvia have received 20 yellow cards and their opponents 16. Montenegro have picked up 21 of their own, with their opponents receiving 14. In the Nations League, neither side has gone through a match without a booking. In Riga against Cyprus, the referee showed six yellows, including to Gutkovskis and Chernomordijs. In Yerevan there were four cards, two of which went to Montenegro's Osmajić and Latković. We expect at least three cards between the two sides. The pick is Total Yellow Cards - Over 2.5.
🚀 Player pick
Nikola Krstović has scored in both Nations League rounds. Against Cyprus he converted a penalty on 66 minutes when Montenegro were losing, and in Yerevan he put his side ahead again after an assist from Andrija Đurić. In the ten matches before Yerevan, he had scored six goals for the national team. The pick is Krstović to score.
😱 Risky pick
We expect a narrow Montenegro win in which Latvia manage to get on the scoresheet. At home, Latvia have failed to win in 7 of their last 8 matches. But they are also rarely beaten heavily on their own ground: Latvia have lost by more than one goal only once in their last eight home Nations League matches. A 1-2 scoreline fits both patterns, and the odds on that market are noticeably higher than on the outright result. The pick is Correct Score 1-2.
🎯 Reliable pick
Latvia have scored more than one goal in only one of their last 23 matches. For this pick to lose, Latvia would need to score twice - and against Cyprus in Riga they did not manage a single shot on target. The pick is Latvia Team Total - Under 1.5 at 1.25.
👀 If the match goes off script
The likely scenario is Montenegro winning by one goal with Latvia managing a reply. That changes if the hosts score first. In that case, Montenegro would need to break down a compact defence while Latvia could sit deep and protect their lead. Keep in mind for in-play: bets on Latvia not to lose and on fewer than three goals in the match if the hosts open the scoring within the first half-hour.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Montenegro never seem to be involved in dull matches: more than two goals have been scored in six of their games in a row. In the Nations League they beat Cyprus 2-1 and Armenia 3-2, winning both times in the closing stages. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in ten consecutive tournament matches, so Latvia will have their chances. We are expecting a high-scoring game and a win for the visitors. The bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5. Predicted score: 1-2.
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Betting Tips: Latvia - Montenegro
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