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Key points

    🔊 In the fourth round of the Nations League group stage, the two leaders of their group go head to head - Estonia and Iceland. Both sides are unbeaten so far and are pushing for promotion. Estonia have been remarkably consistent, picking up points through a pragmatic style of play. Iceland were seen as the group favourites from the start and had their sights set on promotion, but nobody expected Estonia to emerge as their main rivals. Will one side come out on top this time, or will they share the points again?

    🔁 This prediction will be updated as important news emerges. Check back closer to kick-off.

    Head-to-head clashes between these teams tend to produce few goals.

    📊 The previous meeting between the sides took place in the first leg at Iceland's home ground and ended in a draw (1:1), though both teams had every chance of taking all three points. Iceland were more active in attack, had more possession and more shots on goal, while Estonia missed a penalty. Before that, the two sides had met only in friendlies, which were notable for the low number of goals scored.

    Head to Head

    0%
    0 Wins
    100%
    1 Draw
    0%
    0 Wins
    Total games
    1
    Avg. total goals
    2
    Both teams scored
    100%
    1
    Average total
    1
    3
    Corners
    7
    2
    Yellow cards
    1
    13
    Fouls
    13
    Last matches
    26.09.26
    UNL
    Iceland
    Iceland
    Estonia
    Estonia
    1.88
    1.24
    7
    3
    13
    13
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    1
    1.88
    1.24
    7
    3
    13
    13
    1
    2
    Empty
    There are no events
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    Estonia: a sensational run at the tournament

    Before the start of the Nations League, the squad took part in the Baltic Cup. The tournament format consists of semi-finals and a final between the Baltic nations and the Faroe Islands, which points to a rough parity between the participants. Estonia faced the Faroe Islands in the semi-final and managed to edge them out 1-0. Lithuania awaited them in the final, but the hosts showed their attacking qualities there too, scoring late on to claim the tournament.

    Estonia have been a real revelation in League C in this Nations League campaign. They sit second, competing against the strong sides of Iceland and Bulgaria. The first round went without defeat for Estonia - they won at home against Luxembourg and picked up two points from away draws. The match against Iceland will decide who tops the group.

    Match Results: Estonia

    Last matches
    03.10.26
    UEFA Nations League
    Estonia
    Estonia
    Luxembourg
    Luxembourg
    1.43
    0.58
    7
    3
    13
    12
    3
    6
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1.43
    0.58
    7
    3
    13
    12
    3
    6
    W
    29.09.26
    UNL
    Bulgaria
    Bulgaria
    Estonia
    Estonia
    1.08
    0.41
    6
    6
    9
    26
    3
    2
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1.08
    0.41
    6
    6
    9
    26
    3
    2
    D
    26.09.26
    UNL
    Iceland
    Iceland
    Estonia
    Estonia
    1.88
    1.24
    7
    3
    13
    13
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    1
    1.88
    1.24
    7
    3
    13
    13
    1
    2
    D
    09.06.26
    Int. Friendly Games
    Estonia
    Estonia
    Lithuania
    Lithuania
    -
    -
    1
    0
    -
    -
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0
    -
    -
    1
    0
    -
    -
    1
    1
    W
    06.06.26
    European Baltic Cup
    Estonia
    Estonia
    Faroe Islands
    Faroe Islands
    -
    -
    3
    3
    11
    10
    0
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0
    -
    -
    3
    3
    11
    10
    0
    1
    W
    Empty
    There are no events
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    Iceland: Nations League results overshadow recent struggles

    Before their Nations League campaign got under way, Iceland played a series of friendlies against serious opponents earlier this year, several of whom went on to take part in the World Cup. The Icelanders played five matches between April and June without winning any of them. They lost to Argentina, Japan and Mexico, and drew against Canada and Haiti.

    Those friendly results had no bearing on the team's form in competitive football, however, and Iceland sit comfortably top of the group with seven points from the first round of fixtures. Estonia were the only side Iceland failed to beat at the start of the tournament, and now the two teams meet again.

    Match Results: Iceland

    Last matches
    03.10.26
    UEFA Nations League
    Iceland
    Iceland
    Bulgaria
    Bulgaria
    2.53
    0.8
    9
    1
    11
    14
    2
    4
    3
    0
    1
    0
    2
    0
    2.53
    0.8
    9
    1
    11
    14
    2
    4
    W
    29.09.26
    UNL
    Luxembourg
    Luxembourg
    Iceland
    Iceland
    0.35
    1.86
    2
    2
    11
    13
    2
    4
    0
    3
    0
    2
    0
    1
    0.35
    1.86
    2
    2
    11
    13
    2
    4
    W
    26.09.26
    UNL
    Iceland
    Iceland
    Estonia
    Estonia
    1.88
    1.24
    7
    3
    13
    13
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    1
    1.88
    1.24
    7
    3
    13
    13
    1
    2
    D
    10.06.26
    Int. Friendly Games
    Argentina
    Argentina
    Iceland
    Iceland
    2.85
    1.67
    2
    2
    13
    21
    2
    6
    3
    0
    1
    0
    2
    0
    2.85
    1.67
    2
    2
    13
    21
    2
    6
    L
    31.05.26
    Int. Friendly Games
    Japan
    Japan
    Iceland
    Iceland
    1.03
    0.34
    5
    1
    11
    9
    0
    2
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0
    1.03
    0.34
    5
    1
    11
    9
    0
    2
    L
    Empty
    There are no events
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    Latest news

    Estonia

    ❌ Karol Metz will miss the match through suspension. Vlasiy Sinyavsky is injured and will not be available.

    Iceland

    ❌ Elias Ólafsson and Albert Guðmundsson are both unavailable through injury

    Predicted Lineups

    📋 Estonia predicted starting XI: Hein - Schöning-Larsen, Paskotši, Kuusk, Pitson - Poom, Palumets, Kristal, Kait - Mustmäe, Ainsalu.

    📋 Iceland predicted starting XI: Valdimarsson - Pálsson, Þórðarson, Grétarsson, Tómasson - Ellertsson, Jóhannesson, Sigurðsson, Haraldsson - Óskarsson, Guðjohnsen.

    ⚽ Goals Prediction

    Estonia will sit deep defensively, looking to stifle Iceland's wide play and keep a clean sheet. The hosts' priority will be destruction rather than creation, with the return leg in Tallinn set to be played with maximum caution. Either Iceland grind out a narrow 1-0 win through sheer quality, or Estonia hold on for a goalless draw. The Both Teams to Score - No market looks the most logical option here.

    🚩 Corners Prediction

    In the first-leg match, Iceland totally dominated the corner count, winning that battle 7-3. Iceland had 60% possession and constantly bombarded the Estonian penalty area with aerial deliveries. Under their coaching staff, Iceland play a British-style vertical game with active wide play and crossing. Estonia's defenders will regularly have to block those crosses, putting the ball behind the byline. We're backing Iceland Team Total Corners - Over 4.5 at 1.78*.

    🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction

    In the recent head-to-head meeting in Reykjavik, the referee showed just three yellow cards in total - two for Estonia and one for Iceland. The teams played a physical game but rarely resorted to outright foul play or dangerous challenges. Both sides represent Scandinavian and Baltic footballing traditions, which are not typically associated with emotional outbursts, arguing with referees or provocation. The players are focused on discipline, which is why the average total of cards in their head-to-head meetings rarely exceeds 3.5 over 90 minutes. The prediction is Total Yellow Cards - Under 3.5.

    🚀 Player Stats Bet

    Orri Óskarsson is an Icelandic striker with a good chance of making an impact in this match. The young forward from Spanish club Real Sociedad is in fine form and scores regularly. In the first round he contributed three goals and two assists. Our pick is Óskarsson to Score or Assist, priced at 1.71*.

    😱 Risky Bet

    We've picked a risky option for those looking for a higher price. Iceland were dominant throughout the first meeting between these sides, with only a few Estonian counter-attacks causing any danger. The two teams have historically tended towards low-scoring games, and that is unlikely to change this time. As our risky bet, we're going with Iceland not to lose + Total Goals - Under 1.5 at 3.8*.

    🎯 Reliable Bet

    Total Goals - Under 3.5 has landed in eight of Estonia's last nine Nations League matches, and in five consecutive matches for Iceland. These trends point to consistently low scoring from both sides. The head-to-head record also favours a low-scoring outcome, and the first meeting between these two made clear that goals in abundance are not a feature of this fixture. The reliable bet here is Total Goals - Under 3.5.

    👀 If the match doesn't go to script

    In case the teams produce a high-scoring game for the first time in their head-to-head history, we have an alternative option. In the first match, Iceland had chances to convert more than one clear opportunity, but their opponents' solid defensive shape prevented that. Perhaps the coaching staff now have a better understanding of how to play against Estonia and will manage to improve their finishing. Estonia are unbeaten, and it is quite possible that playing at home could help them avoid defeat even in a match with plenty of goals. The alternative bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5.

    *Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.

    ⭐️ Editorial Prediction

    Estonia will once again opt for a pragmatic approach, especially in a match that has a direct bearing on promotion. A draw would suit the hosts, and at home they have everything they need to achieve one. Even away in Iceland, Estonia managed to keep their opponents in check and concede no more than one goal - at home that should be easier. Iceland are coming for the win and have already studied their opponents' style; they now have every chance of winning by the minimum margin and taking the points gap in the group they need. The main prediction is Total Goals - Under 2.5. Predicted score: 0-1.

    Total goals Under (2,5)
    Bovada
    Place a bet-115
    Published: 05/10/2026, 10:44
    Daniil Shilovich
    Daniil Shilovich
    Football expert
    3
    0
    5
    8 predictions
    Statistics for October 2026

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    Betting Tips: Estonia - Iceland

    Over 1.5 goals scored:
    iceland-1in last 23 Iceland games.
    iceland-1in last 19 Iceland games (UEFA Nations League).
    iceland-1in last 15 Iceland away games.
    iceland-1in last 9 Iceland away games (UEFA Nations League).
    in 11 of last 12 David Dickinson games.
    Total goals Over (1,5)
    Everygame
    -357
    Under 3.5 goals scored:
    estonia-2in 8 of last 9 Estonia games (UEFA Nations League).
    estonia-2in 6 of last 7 Estonia home games (UEFA Nations League).
    iceland-1in last 5 Iceland games.
    in last 10 David Dickinson games.
    Total goals Under (3,5)
    Everygame
    -303
    Iceland have scored:
    iceland-1in 18 of last 19 games.
    iceland-1in last 15 games (UEFA Nations League).
    iceland-1in 8 of last 9 away games.
    iceland-1in last 7 away games (UEFA Nations League).
    Iceland will score goal
    Everygame
    -714
    Iceland have scored under 2.5 goals:
    iceland-1in 17 of last 19 games (UEFA Nations League).
    iceland-1in 11 of last 12 away games.
    iceland-1in 8 of last 9 away games (UEFA Nations League).
    Iceland Total goals Under (2,5)
    Everygame
    -333
    View more facts

    Standings

    League C Group D
    MPWDLGPForm
    1.
    Iceland
    Iceland
    32107-17
    2.
    Estonia
    Estonia
    31202-15
    3.
    Luxembourg
    Luxembourg
    31022-53
    4.
    Bulgaria
    Bulgaria
    30121-51

    Stats comparison

    10 matches
    3 - Wins
    3 - Draws
    4 - Losses
    Wins - 4
    Draws - 2
    Losses - 4
    10 matches
    Scored - 7
    Conceded - 17
    -10
    +6
    21 - Scored
    15 - Conceded
    3
    Wins
    4
    3
    Draws
    2
    4
    Losses
    4
    Goal difference
    7
    Scored
    21
    17
    Conceded
    15
    2.4
    Average total per match
    3.6
    0.7
    Goals scored per match on average
    2.1
    1.7
    Goals conceded per match on average
    1.5
    5
    Both teams scored
    5
    129'
    Minutes / Goal scored
    43'
    View all stats