Montenegro vs Armenia Prediction 5 October 2026
🔊 There has not been this much excitement around Montenegro tickets since March 2023, when Serbia came to Podgorica. The reason is a perfect start to the Nations League: three matches, nine points. Top spot in the group means promotion, and a win over Armenia would almost secure it.
🔁 We regularly update this prediction. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Head-to-Head
📊 The overall record across five meetings is perfectly balanced: two wins each and one draw. Until September, neither side had managed to win on the other's ground. Montenegro were the first to do it, beating Armenia 3-2 in Yerevan with a decisive goal on the 89th minute. The two sides have met in Podgorica just once, in 2018 World Cup qualifying, and Montenegro won convincingly on that occasion.
Head-to-head statistics Montenegro - Armenia
Montenegro: On the Rise as Adžić Bags a Brace
Montenegro are unbeaten and lead their nearest rivals, Cyprus, by five points. Mirko Vučinić set out the objective ahead of the match in Yerevan: finish top.
The standout performer of the last round was Vasilije Adžić. In Yerevan, the Sassuolo midfielder started on the bench. In Riga he came into the starting XI and scored twice, which gave Montenegro the win over Latvia. The 20-year-old now has four goals in nine appearances for the national team.
Match Results: Montenegro
Armenia: two straight defeats and captain Spertsyan
Armenia topped the group after the first round but then lost twice in a row and dropped to third place. In Cyprus, Yeghishe Melikyan's side conceded two goals before half-time and never responded, despite playing against ten men from the 52nd minute onwards.
Armenia's key player is captain Eduard Spertsyan. The Al-Ahli midfielder provided an assist in the match against Latvia. In Cyprus he had two close-range efforts, but the Cypriot goalkeeper saved both. Spertsyan has a good record against Montenegro: three goals in the last two head-to-head meetings.
Match Results: Armenia
Latest news
Montenegro
❓ Vučinić has lost Milan Vukotić through injury. The Partizan midfielder aggravated a pre-existing ankle problem during the match against Cyprus and left the camp, with his recovery expected to take around a month. Adam Marušić missed out on this round of fixtures due to injury, while Sead Hakšabanović was ruled out for the same reason before the tournament began. During the camp, Vučinić called up additional midfielders Marko Šimun from Sutjeska and Danilo Vukanić from Budućnost. In Riga, the manager rotated his squad: Stefan Savić and Andrija Bulatović, who had both started in Yerevan, did not feature. No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either player.
Armenia
❓ Melikyan's injury list has grown. Artem Bandikyan was carried off on a stretcher in Cyprus with ankle ligament damage. According to the federation, his recovery is expected to take around three weeks. First-choice goalkeeper Ognen Čančarević did not travel to Cyprus due to injury and is not in the squad for the away matches. Arsen Beglaryan is likely to start in goal again - he dropped a corner before Cyprus's first goal in Nicosia. Zhirayr Shagoyan is also absent from the squad, while Artur Serobyan was not included in the matchday squad for the Cyprus game, with no reason given. Grant-Leon Ranos and Vahan Bichakhchyan had already dropped out through injury before the camp began.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Montenegro: Popović - Vešović, Rubežić, Vujačić, Radunović - Lončar, Janković, Adžić - Osmajić, Krstović, Jovetić.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Armenia: Beglaryan - Simonyan, Piloyan, Harutyunyan, Tiknizyan - Karlen Hovhannisyan, Ivu, Spertsyan - Sevikyan, Manvelyan, Miranyan.
⚽️ Goals prediction
Montenegro have scored at least two goals in five consecutive official matches. Even Cyprus, who took the lead in Podgorica, ended up conceding twice and left with nothing. Armenia offer little defensive stability: they have conceded in 15 of their last 16 Nations League matches. Montenegro have seven goals in three matchdays - more than any other team in the group. The bet is Montenegro Team Total - Over 1.5.
🚩 Corners prediction
Across their last ten matches, Montenegro have won the corners battle: 50 to 43. Armenia's picture is the reverse: 33 of their own against 47 for their opponents. In Podgorica, both trends point in the hosts' favour. The bet is Montenegro to win the corners.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
Neither side is known for rough play. In their last ten official matches, Montenegro have picked up 20 yellow cards, their opponents 13. Armenia's numbers are more modest: 13 cards of their own and nine for their opponents. Over the same period, Montenegro's matches have produced 33 yellows in total, Armenia's 22. The bet is Total Yellow Cards - Under 3.5.
🚀 Player statistic bet
Nikola Krstović has had shots in every Nations League matchday. Against Cyprus, the Atalanta forward converted a penalty. In Yerevan he had two attempts inside the first ten minutes and later curled the ball past the onrushing Ognen Čančarević. In Riga he went without a goal, though he did have chances. Against the Armenian defence he is again the hosts' main threat. The bet is Krstović to score.
😱 Risky bet
We're backing Armenia to respond after the break. In all three Nations League matchdays, Montenegro's opponents have scored in the second half. The run extends beyond this tournament: Montenegro have conceded after half-time in 8 of their last 9 official matches. An Armenia goal is part of our main scenario, and the second half is where it is most likely to come. The risk is honest: away from home in this tournament, Armenia have yet to score. But if you're looking for a long price, this is where to find it. The bet is Armenia to score in the second half at 2.41*.
🎯 Reliable bet
In ten consecutive home Nations League matches, Montenegro and their opponents have combined for at least two goals. Armenia have the same run away from home in the Nations League - ten consecutive away matches. Our predicted scoreline wins this bet, and so does any scoring draw. The bet is Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.28*.
👀 If the match doesn't go to plan
Our scenario is Montenegro winning by a single goal with Armenia scoring at least once. An early goal for the hosts could change that. It would force Armenia to open up, giving Montenegro the space to counter-attack. In that case, keep in mind for in-play betting a two-goal winning margin for the hosts and bets against both teams scoring. The signal to watch for is the hosts leading at half-time with the visitors creating nothing.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Montenegro have won all three of their matches in this group stage, but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them. That is part of a longer run: they have conceded in 11 consecutive matches in the tournament. Armenia will therefore have a real chance to score in Podgorica. The visitors' defence does not look any more reliable: Armenia have conceded in 17 consecutive away matches in official competition. Montenegro's last five official matches have all seen both teams score. We expect a home win, but not a clean sheet. The bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 2-1.
Will this prediction come true?
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Betting Tips: Montenegro - Armenia
in 6 of last 7 games.in last 5 away games.
in 10 of last 11 away games.in last 10 Montenegro home games (UEFA Nations League).in 9 of last 10 Montenegro home games.in last 5 Montenegro games (UEFA Nations League).in 15 of last 16 Armenia games (UEFA Nations League).in last 10 Armenia away games (UEFA Nations League).in 7 of last 8 Armenia away games.in 29 of last 30 games.in last 17 away games.in 15 of last 16 games (UEFA Nations League).in last 10 away games (UEFA Nations League).Comparison of Teams Stats
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