Cyprus vs Latvia Prediction 5 October 2026
🔉 This match is a crucial one for Cyprus in the promotion race. They sit second in the group, and a win would not only consolidate that position but also cut the gap to leaders Montenegro. Latvia, meanwhile, are bottom of the four-team group without a single win in three rounds of the Nations League. For the visitors, this is a last chance to keep themselves in the fight for survival in League C.
🔁 We will update this prediction on match day. Any important changes before kick-off will be covered in the Latest News section.
Head-to-Head
📊 The first leg in this tie ended goalless. Statistically, Cyprus were the closer side to winning: xG 1.49 vs 1.05, 67% possession, 18-8 in shots, 5-0 in shots on target and 11-4 in corners.
Head-to-head statistics Cyprus - Latvia
Cyprus: a team that has learned the art of resilience
Cyprus come into this match on the back of a determined 2-0 win over Armenia, a result achieved despite playing with ten men from the 52nd minute following Pileas's red card. It was their first home match of the tournament and showed that Cyprus can manage a game when they need to. Across their three Nations League fixtures so far, they have produced three different results: a 1-2 defeat to Montenegro in the first round, a goalless draw with Latvia in the second, and the win over Armenia in the third.
Cyprus have now won two consecutive home matches and have won 3 of their last 5 home Nations League games. With four points and a goal difference of 3-2, they sit second in the group, five points behind Montenegro. Cyprus do not push the tempo - they defend compactly and wait for the opposition to make mistakes, which is exactly how the win over Armenia was achieved.
Match Results: Cyprus
Latvia: a team that rarely finds the back of the net
Latvia lost four of their six matches in the previous Nations League campaign and finished fourth in their group. They stayed in League C only by winning a play-off against Gibraltar, taking both legs 1-0. This season they are bottom again, already two points behind third place.
Their results so far include a home draw with Cyprus (0-0), a 0-2 defeat away to Armenia, and a 1-2 home defeat to Montenegro. Against Montenegro, Latvia had 51% possession and managed 14 shots, but created little of real danger: their xG was 0.89 against 2.07, and they had just two shots on target compared to six for their opponents. The two wins over Gibraltar are Latvia's only victories in their last ten matches. They lack quality in attack, and that is showing in results both at home and away.
Match Results: Latvia
Latest news
Cyprus
Cyprus have one fresh absence - Kostas Pileas, who received a red card in the match against Armenia and will miss this game through suspension. Joël Mol has also been left out of the squad, having not been included in the selection for these matches by the coaching staff.
Latvia
Latvia's situation is more complicated. Roberts Savalnieks was injured in the match against Montenegro and was substituted on the 28th minute - his availability for the game against Cyprus remains in doubt. Kristaps Grabovskis had previously missed time through a fitness issue.
Predicted Lineups
Predicted starting XI for Cyprus: Fabiano - Conomis, Kyprianou, Panayiotou, Tsaroulla - Andreu, Kastanos, Loizou - Edwards, Kakoullis, Pittas.
Predicted starting XI for Latvia: Matrevics - Jurkovskis, Melnieks, Cernomordijs, Vientess, Cirkins - Patijcuks, Vanpe, Zelenovks, Tsyganik - Uldrikis.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The first match between these sides was a physical affair, with the referee handing out six bookings. Cyprus are aggressive at home and have no hesitation fouling when opponents try to break on the counter. Latvia play cautiously away from home but are forced to commit fouls to slow the game down. Given what is at stake for both teams, the intensity is unlikely to drop. We're backing Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at 1.67*.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Neither side is particularly prolific. Cyprus have scored no more than two goals in each of their last 24 consecutive home matches across all competitions, while Latvia have scored just once in three matches in this Nations League campaign. The first meeting between the two ended goalless. An interesting option is Total Goals - Under 3.5 at 1.29*. Latvia will sit deep, and Cyprus are unlikely to push forward recklessly, knowing the cost of a mistake.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Latvia defend deep away from home and rarely win set-pieces in the opposition half. Cyprus, aware of the cost of an error, will not force things unnecessarily. Both teams are likely to prioritise defensive solidity over open football. Total Corners - Under 10.5 follows from the closed nature of the game that is expected.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Three different players have scored for Cyprus in this Nations League campaign, with two of those goals coming from defenders. The only forward to find the net is Marcus Edwards. He is in the top five for minutes played in the tournament and has started every match. Edwards is active in the final third and regularly gets into the right positions. Marcus Edwards to Score at 3.20* follows from his role in the team.
🎯 Safe Bet
Cyprus have scored no more than two goals in each of their last 24 consecutive home matches across all competitions, and in 11 home matches in the Nations League. Latvia have conceded more than two goals in only one of their ten matches in this tournament. The reliable option is Cyprus Team Total - Under 2.5 Goals at 1.25*.
😱 Risky Bet
Both teams know the cost of a mistake and are unlikely to open up from the first minute. Cyprus will probably look for their moment through ball control, while Latvia will wait for a chance on the counter. It is possible that the first goal will not come until the second half, when the visitors begin to tire. Cyprus to Score the First Goal in the Second Half at 3.16* is a risky option.
👀 If the Match Goes Off-Script
Cyprus are favourites at home and have a lift from their win over Armenia. But Latvia know they have nothing to lose and may push forward with numbers. A Score Draw at 5.00* is a scenario that cannot be ruled out.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The first match between these two sides ended goalless, and not much has changed since then. Cyprus and Latvia do not produce high-scoring affairs - both teams are more focused on keeping things tight defensively. Latvia have serious problems in attack: in ten matches in this tournament, they have not scored more than one goal in a single game. Two goals in a match like this is already a reasonable benchmark, and expecting three seems unlikely. Closed, low-tempo football is what to expect here. We're going with Total Goals - Under 2.5. Predicted score: 2-0.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Cyprus - Latvia
in 10 of last 11 Cyprus home games (UEFA Nations League).in 6 of last 7 Cyprus games (UEFA Nations League).in last 9 Latvia games (UEFA Nations League).in 49 of last 50 games.in last 24 home games.in last 23 games (UEFA Nations League).in last 11 home games (UEFA Nations League).in 22 of last 23 games.in last 15 away games.in last 12 games (UEFA Nations League).in last 6 away games (UEFA Nations League).in last 12 Cyprus home games.in 7 of last 8 Cyprus games (UEFA Nations League).in 6 of last 7 Cyprus games.Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
