Portugal vs Norway Prediction 4 October 2026
On 27 September in Oslo, Cristiano Ronaldo did not come off the bench at all. It was only the third time in his international career that he spent an entire match on the bench. Portugal managed without their captain and took all three points from Norway. If Portugal win the return fixture as well, their lead over Norway will grow to nine points. The Nations League Matchday 4 meeting takes place on 4 October in Porto at the Estádio do Dragão.
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Head-to-Head
📊 Norway have beaten Portugal just once in 12 head-to-head meetings. That came in September 2010, in Euro 2012 qualifying. After that, Norway went 16 years without scoring against Portugal. Erling Haaland ended that run in the September match in Oslo, equalising early in the second half. The Norwegians' joy lasted three minutes, and Portugal won the match anyway. On home soil, Portugal have never lost to Norway, with one draw the only occasion they have dropped points.
Head-to-head statistics Portugal - Norway
Portugal: Jesus Rotates the Squad, but the Result Stays the Same
Portugal are defending their Nations League title under a new manager. Roberto Martínez left the post after the World Cup, having seen Portugal beaten by Spain in the semi-final. The squad was taken over by 72-year-old Jorge Jesus, and he has yet to put a foot wrong in the tournament. A win over Norway would move the team closer to the quarter-finals.
Jesus rotates only in the forward positions. The defence, with Diogo Costa in goal, has been unchanged across all three rounds. In midfield and attack, the manager has made four changes each time. The approach has paid off: Portugal beat Denmark in Copenhagen, with four different scorers across the four goals. Bruno Fernandes missed Oslo through injury, but on returning to the starting XI he contributed two assists.
Match Results: Portugal
Norway: goalkeeper change after two costly errors
Norway are World Cup quarter-finalists and are competing in League A for the first time. Ståle Solbakken's side began the tournament with a win over Denmark in Oslo, but then went two games without a point - against Portugal and Wales. Norway had not had a run like that since the autumn of 2022. They now have three points, level with Denmark and Wales. The top two teams in the group advance to the quarter-finals, while the bottom side are relegated to League B.
The main issue for Solbakken in this window has been the goalkeeping position. Against Portugal, a mistake by Ørjan Nyland cost them the decisive goal. In Cardiff, Nyland faltered again, going the wrong way for Neco Williams's winning free kick. Solbakken says the decision had been made before the Wales match, but he announced it immediately after the game. According to Solbakken, Egil Selvik will start in goal against Portugal.
Match Results: Norway
Latest news
Portugal
❓ The big news of the window is Cristiano Ronaldo's departure. The captain left the national team camp on the eve of the match against Denmark, immediately after coach press conference - at which the manager announced that Ronaldo would again start on the bench. The federation confirmed that the squad is preparing for the matches against Denmark and Norway with the remaining 24 players. Coach himself said he would return to the subject only after the window is over. Winger Francisco Conceição missed the game in Copenhagen after picking up a knock in Oslo. According to Portuguese newspaper O Jogo, he was left out as a precaution and the expectation is that he will be available in Porto. Coach himself is more cautious and is waiting to see whether the player recovers in time.
Norway
❓ Sorlbakken will have to do without two of his first-choice defenders. Torbjørn Heggem was shown a straight red card just 16 seconds into the second half in Cardiff and will miss the match in Porto. Julian Ryerson also picked up an injury during the first half of that same game. Both have returned to their clubs, and the manager has opted not to call up replacements. On the bright side, captain Martin Ødegaard has recovered from his ankle injury and played the full 90 minutes against Wales. Kristian Thorstvedt was left out of the squad for the Wales match due to fitness concerns, and his availability for Sunday remains uncertain.
Probable Lineups
📋 Expected Portugal Starting XI: Diogo Costa - Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Veiga, Nuno Mendes - Palhinha, João Neves - Leao, Felix, Neto - Ramos.
📋 Expected Norway Starting XI: Selvik - Holmgren Pedersen, Ajer, Estigard, Møller Wolfe - Odegaard, Berge, Aursnes - Nusa, Haaland, Schjelderup.
⚽️ Goals prediction
At least three goals have been scored in 21 of Norway's last 22 matches. The away picture is much the same: three or more goals in 6 of their last 7 away games. The balance tells the story: in the Nations League, the Norwegians have scored five goals and conceded six in three rounds. Portugal, for their part, have no problems in front of goal - they have scored in 15 consecutive home matches. We don't expect the teams to be held to two goals. The bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5.
🚩 Corners prediction
Portugal earn corners freely: across their last ten official matches they have taken 57 corners, while their opponents have taken 41. Norway's balance runs the other way - in their last ten matches, opponents have taken 52 corners to Norway's 45. We therefore expect Portugal to win at least five corners. The bet is Portugal Team Total Corners - Over 4.5.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
The first match ended on a nervy note. In stoppage time in Oslo, Bernardo Silva caught Martín Ødegaard from behind and was booked. Norway defender Leo Skiri Østigård remarked afterwards that the challenge could have warranted a red card. Portugal have been picking up bookings regularly of late: they have received 16 yellow cards across their last ten official matches. Norway's opponents have collected 18 in their last ten games - teams foul Norway frequently. In the Nations League, Portugal have received at least two yellow cards in 8 of their last 9 matches. The bet is Portugal Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5.🚀 Player statistic bet
Under Jorge Jesus, João Félix has scored in every match: three games, three goals. It was Félix who made the difference when Portugal beat Wales in the first round. In Oslo he opened the scoring from a Pedro Neto assist. In Copenhagen he started on the bench for the first time under the new manager, came on as a substitute and scored on the 87th minute. He is currently Portugal's top scorer in the tournament. The bet is Félix to Score.
😱 Risky bet
Norway have lost 1-2 in three of their last four matches. Each time the Norwegians replied with one goal and no more. Portugal at home usually score at least twice - that has been the case in 13 of their last 15 home matches. We expect the score on Sunday to be 2-1. It's a genuine risk, but the odds are long. We're backing the scoreline Norway keep repeating. The bet is Correct Score 2-1 at 12.00*.
🎯 Reliable bet
Norway have scored in 22 consecutive matches without being held scoreless. In the Nations League that run stretches to seven games. They have the players to find the net: Erling Haaland is the tournament's all-time top scorer. And Portugal have kept just one clean sheet in this international window. The odds are modest, but the run is long. The bet is Norway to Score at 1.30*.
👀 If the match doesn't follow the script
The likely scenario is Portugal controlling the game and winning by a single goal, with Norway replying once. An early goal from the visitors could change all that. Portugal would then have to open up, giving Norway space to hit on the break. In that case the match would move towards both teams scoring and Total Goals - Over 3.5. Keep those markets in mind for in-play if Norway take the lead inside the first half-hour.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Portugal have won 13 of their last 15 home matches. At the Dragão, they are favourites once again. In the Nations League, Portugal have lost just one of their last 12 matches. Norway will have a tough time against the reigning holders. The Norwegians have failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 consecutive games, so Portugal will have their chances. In Porto, Norway will be without the suspended Torbjørn Heggem and the injured Julian Ryerson. According to Ståle Solbakken, Egil Selvik will replace Ørjan Nyland in goal. We are expecting Portugal to make it four wins from four matchdays. Our pick is Portugal to win. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Portugal - Norway
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