Switzerland vs Scotland Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 16 November 2026
π Switzerland have already achieved their main objective: a draw with Slovenia (0:0) in the previous round guaranteed them first place in the group and a return to League A. Scotland, by contrast, are fighting for second place, which would earn them a spot in the play-offs. The visitors need a win, and even three points would not guarantee them second place - they would also have to rely on Slovenia dropping points in the other Nations League match. The teamsβ motivations differ sharply, and that could prove decisive.
Head-to-head statistics Switzerland - Scotland
Top spot decided
π In the first round, Switzerland won 3-0 away from home, although the xG gap was not as large: 1.52 to 0.11. It was only the second meeting between the teams; they had previously drawn 1-1 at the 2024 European Championship.
Switzerland drew 0-0 with Slovenia in Maribor. They had 71% possession but could not turn it into goals: Switzerland led on xG (0.65 to 0.28), shots (13-8) and shots on target (3-2). The result was enough to secure their return to League A with a game to spare. After five rounds, Switzerland have four wins and one draw, with a goal difference of 11-1 - one of the most convincing campaigns in the division.
Having already achieved their objective in the group, the coaching staff can make changes. Murat Yakin said that several players who are not usually in the starting XI could start against Scotland. Major changes are not expected, though: Switzerland are at home, and this is their last match of the year. They will try to finish the group stage unbeaten, but their underlying motivation is no longer what it was in the decisive rounds.
Match Results: Switzerland
The battle for second place, but victory alone may not be enough
Scotland go into the match after a 2-1 home win over North Macedonia. They were in complete control: their xG advantage was 3.14 to 0.33, they led 18-7 in shots and 6-2 in shots on target. The win secured their position in third place and kept their hopes of finishing second alive: they trail Slovenia by just one point.
Scotland need a win to finish second. If they draw, Slovenia will finish above them on head-to-head results, regardless of the result of Sloveniaβs match against North Macedonia. But even a win would not guarantee Scotland second place: they also need Slovenia to drop points in their match. Scotland can no longer finish below third, but that is not enough to reach the play-offs.
Match Results: Scotland
Latest news
Switzerland
Granit Xhaka, Miro Muheim and Johan Manzambi were not included in the November squad. Goalkeeper Silas Huber sustained an injury during the training camp.
Scotland
Defenders Stephen Welsh and Luis Binks will not be available for the national team against Switzerland. John McGinn was the standout player against North Macedonia, scoring twice to take his tally for the national team to 24 goals. The Aston Villa midfielder is in excellent form and will be the visitorsβ main attacking threat.
Predicted Lineups
Switzerlandβs Predicted starting XI: Keller - Athekame, Akanji, CΓΆmert, Britschgi - Jashari, Freuler - Aebischer, Rieder, Ballet - Amdouni.
Scotlandβs Predicted starting XI: Gunn - Tierney, Graham, Porteous - Doak, Ferguson, Gilmour, Robertson - McGinn - McTominay, Adams.
β½οΈ Goals prediction
At least two goals were scored in each of Switzerlandβs last six home Nations League matches and in 12 of their matches in the competition when away games are included. The visitorsβ motivation and a potentially less-than-optimal Switzerland lineup, with the hosts having already secured first place, also point towards goals. We pick Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.33*.
π© Corners prediction
Switzerland have taken at least seven corners in 12 of their last 13 matches in the tournament. The team often attack down the flanks and put crosses into the box, leading to set pieces. Prediction - Switzerland Team Total Corners - Over 6.5 at 2.04*.
π¨ Yellow cards prediction
Switzerland play with discipline and commit few fouls. The match has no bearing on the standings, so their approach will not be as combative as in the decisive rounds. In their last five Nations League matches, Switzerland have received no more than one yellow card in any game. We pick Switzerland Team Total Yellow Cards - Under 1.5.
π Player prop bet
John McGinn scored twice in the last match and is in good form. The Aston Villa midfielder is Scotlandβs main attacking threat, and in a match where only a win will do for the visitors, he will be fully focused on scoring. Weβre backing McGinn to score at odds of 6.62*.
π± Risky bet
Scotland have scored in 6 of their last 7 away Nations League matches. A fast start is one possible approach for the visitors to take the lead early and force Switzerland to come from behind. Scotland to score in the first half at 3.17* is a risky bet on the match.
π― A reliable bet
Switzerland have scored in 16 consecutive home games and in six of their last seven Nations League matches. Even with squad rotation, the hosts will create enough chances. Switzerland to score at 1.16* is a reliable option for this match.
π If the match doesn't go to plan
Switzerland are unbeaten in the Nations League and have conceded just one goal, so they remain favourites at home in their final match despite having no real motivation. However, rotation and absences could give Scotland a chance. Scotland to win at 5.31* goes against the expected course of events.
*Odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.
β Editor's Pick
Switzerland have already secured first place and will experiment with their lineup. Scotland are motivated to win and will look to score to potentially move up to second place: from third, they would have to play in the relegation play-offs to stay in League B, so their most important matches effectively start now. The visitors will commit plenty of energy to attack, while the hosts, even with a rotated side, will not sit back. The main pick is Scotland to score. Predicted score: 2:1.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Switzerland - Scotland
in last 6 home games.
in 6 of last 7 away games.
in 16 of last 17 games.in 15 of last 16 home games.in 8 of last 9 Switzerland games.in last 11 Scotland games (UEFA Nations League).in 8 of last 9 Scotland away games.in last 7 Scotland games.in last 6 Scotland away games (UEFA Nations League).Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
