Slovenia vs Scotland Prediction 26 September 2026

Slovenia come into this match on the back of a fairly unconvincing run. In March they lost to Hungary 0-1, then beat Montenegro 3-2, before drawing 1-1 with Cyprus and losing 1-2 to Croatia over the summer. Across those four matches in 2026, Slovenia have scored five goals and conceded six. That said, they have regularly stayed in games until the final minutes and have not been outfought even when results have gone against them.

A great deal will depend on how well Slovenia can organise the space in front of their penalty area. The hosts have a fairly experienced central defensive unit led by Jaka Bijol, with Jan Oblak behind them - still one of the key figures in the national side. The full-backs are capable of getting forward, so the team are unlikely to sit in a deep block for the entire match. Slovenia will more probably alternate between cautious spells and attempts to press higher up the pitch.

Going forward, the situation is more difficult. The absence of Benjamin Šeško deprives the team of a player who can create danger on his own and stretch the opposition defence. More responsibility will now fall on Andraž Šporar, Zan Vipotnik and the players in behind. Slovenia will need to compensate for the loss of their main striker through collective play and runs from midfield, particularly from Timi Max Elšnik and Adam Gnezda Čerin.

Playing at home does give Slovenia the option of not forcing the game. It seems unlikely the hosts will push forward in numbers from the first minute; the more logical approach would be to assess how confidently Scotland build out under their new manager, and then increase the pressure after the break. That kind of plan allows Slovenia to stay compact while also drawing on the support of their home crowd if the match remains level for a long period.

This will be Scotland's first competitive match under Sebastien Pocognoli. The Belgian coach replaced Steve Clarke and immediately moved to refresh the squad: seven players with no international experience were included in his first call-up, and 14 of the 28 players had not featured at the World Cup. That said, this is not a complete rebuild - the new manager has kept several key figures around whom the team will be built.

Andrew Robertson, John McGinn, Billy Gilmour, Ryan Christie and Jack Hendry all remain in the squad. Their experience is particularly important for Pocognoli at the start of his tenure, given how many new faces have come in at once. Gilmour deserves a specific mention: after missing the World Cup through injury, he returns to the national team and should add quality in central midfield. Up front, Oli McBurnie is back - he scored 18 goals for Hull City last season and now has the chance to establish himself as one of the main options at centre-forward.

Scotland's recent run has been mixed. Before the World Cup they beat Curaçao and Bolivia, then opened the tournament with a win over Haiti. However, the Tartan Army then came up against tougher opposition - Morocco and Brazil - and lost both matches, 0-1 and 0-3 respectively. Notably, Scotland failed to score in either of those two games. Even in the defeat to Brazil, though, the team created enough to earn corners and periodically reached the final third, so the problem was not simply a lack of attacking intent but rather the finishing.

Pocognoli now has to work out fairly quickly what the balance will be between Scotland's familiar physical style and the more structured football he will want to instil. At this stage, the interplay between McGinn, Gilmour and Christie in midfield looks particularly important: it is through them that the visitors can control the tempo and get the ball forward. The large number of changes in the squad, however, means fully cohesive football cannot be expected from Scotland in their new manager's first match.