Estrela vs Casa Pia Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 24 October 2026
🔊 On Saturday, Estrela return home to Amadora. The Liga has twice rejected the pitch at Estádio José Gomes, and during the international break it was replaced entirely. The home ground has not helped the club so far: their only home win in this season's Primeira Liga came in Alverca, where their match against Braga was relocated. Casa Pia have a similar quirk - all their league points have come away from home. Who will the new pitch benefit?
Head-to-Head
Estrela thrashed Casa Pia 4-0 in their most recent Primeira Liga meeting, scoring three times before half-time. The shot count reflected the dominance: 23 to 9, with 8 to 2 on target.
Across eight head-to-head meetings there has not been a single draw: Estrela have won five times, Casa Pia three. Estrela also lead on goals - 14-9. Both teams scored in only two of those meetings.
Head-to-head statistics Estrela - Casa Pia
Estrela Team Overview
Estrela's most recent match was a 2-1 away win over Fazendenese in the Portuguese Cup, though the score was level at half-time. Their shot count was considerably more dominant than the final scoreline suggested: 19 to 4.
Estrela's attack went quiet before their return home. In the first six rounds, Pepa's side scored 14 goals, but in the two matches that followed they failed to find the net once. After the defeat to Académico de Viseu (0-2), the manager summed up the performance briefly: "We ran a lot, but we ran badly." The international break changed nothing: away at Arouca, Estrela conceded inside five minutes and lost by a single goal. Goals returned only in the Taça de Portugal, where Pepa's side beat Fazendense (2-1). But in the league, the Amadora club have now suffered two consecutive setbacks.
Match Results: Estrela
Casa Pia Team Overview
In their last match - a Portuguese Cup tie - Casa Pia won 1-0 away at Alpendorada. The shots were level at 8-8, but Casa Pia were outshot on target 3-4 and also had a player sent off.
Casa Pia have the worst attack in the Primeira Liga, with just three goals in eight rounds. Two of those came at Estoril, where they picked up their only league win. At home, the most painful result was the defeat to Santa Clara: Casa Pia were reduced to ten men from the 52nd minute and conceded in stoppage time. Away from home they have been more composed - in 7 of their last 8 away matches they have not lost by more than one goal. For the 17th-placed side, the trip to Amadora is more of an opportunity than a threat.
Match Results: Casa Pia
Total Goals Prediction
Estrela's matches have produced at least two goals in eight consecutive games. This season the team have been scoring and conceding freely. Casa Pia score few but concede plenty. We're expecting at least two goals. The bet is Total Goals - Over 1.5.
Corners Prediction
Estrela have served five or fewer corners in 13 consecutive matches. We don't expect that run to end here. The bet is Estrela Team Total Corners - Under 5.5.
Correct Score Prediction
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm identifies three most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11.99%), 1-0 (11.99%), and 2-1 (9.89%). A draw and a narrow home win are rated as the most probable outcomes.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
As hosts, Estrela have won just one of their last seven Primeira Liga matches. On top of that, they have conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions, and they have failed to score in each of their last two league games. That gives even the second-bottom side, Casa Pia, a genuine chance here. We expect Estrela's attack to remain muted on the new pitch, and Casa Pia to leave Amadora with at least a point. Our bet is Casa Pia not to lose.
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Betting Tips: Estrela - Casa Pia
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