St Pauli vs Dortmund Prediction 23 August 2025
🔊 What can St. Pauli achieve in their second consecutive season in Germany's top flight? Can the "League Pirates" aim for more than just survival in the Bundesliga? In the opening round at the Millerntor, the Hamburg club hosts Borussia Dortmund, whose primary goal remains unchanged year after year-winning the championship. However, their last Bundesliga triumph was 13 years ago. What should we expect from these teams this season? Let's delve into a prediction informed by the latest summer developments.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their last four matches, the "Black and Yellows" have claimed victory three times, while the "League Pirates" have won once. Last season, Dortmund came out on top in both encounters (2-0 and 2-1).
Head-to-head statistics St Pauli - Dortmund
St. Pauli Team Overview
🟤 Last season, the "Pirates" finished in 14th place. Besides securing their spot in the league, they have another achievement to be proud of: conceding just 41 goals in 34 matches, the second-best record in the league, only behind Bayern Munich.
⚪ Ahead of the new season, St. Pauli played seven friendly matches: five wins, one draw, and one loss. In the German Cup, they kicked off on August 16 with a match against Eintracht Northeim (Northern Regional League). Regular time ended in a goalless draw, but the "Pirates" proved more accurate in the penalty shootout, winning 3-2.
Match Results: St. Pauli
Borussia Dortmund Team Overview
🟡 Last season, the "Yellow and Blacks" started under the leadership of Nuri Sahin, but their performance fell short of expectations as the team found themselves stuck mid-table. In February, Niko Kovac was brought in to take charge, and the situation changed: the club managed to finish fourth and secure a return to the Champions League.
⚫ Over the summer, Borussia participated in the Club World Cup in the USA. They advanced past the group stage but were defeated by Real Madrid in the quarter-finals (2-3). Following that, they played some friendlies: against Siegen (8-1), Lille (3-2), and Juventus (1-2). The new season kicked off on August 18 with a German Cup match against Essen (Third League). A goal from Serhou Guirassy in the 79th minute secured a 1-0 victory.
Match Results: Borussia Dortmund
Latest news
St. Pauli
📝 This summer, the club parted ways with a number of players: Philipp Troj, Elias Saad, Maurides Roque Junior, Johannes Eggestein, Carlo Boukhalfa, and James Sands. They were replaced by Arkadiusz Pyrka, Joeiro Tima Fujita, Mathias Pereira Lage, Yannick Robach, Simon Emil Spari, Andrea Utondji, and Ricky-Jade Jones.
❓ An amusing situation unfolded with winger Morgan Guilavogui. Lens sold the Guinean to St. Pauli for €3 million and immediately bought him back for €4.5 million. How is that possible? Guilavogui moved to Germany last summer, with St. Pauli loaning him from Lens for €500,000. The agreement included both a purchase option and a buy-back clause for the French side. Both were activated simultaneously. St. Pauli exercised their option to buy after a successful loan spell, but Lens promptly re-signed Guilavogui. As a result, the Germans made a million euros from having Morgan on loan for just one season-an incredibly quirky transfer.
❌ In the opening round, Karol Mets, Jackson Irvine, and Ricky-Jade Jones will not play due to injuries. David Nemeth's participation is doubtful.
Borussia Dortmund
💰 Borussia Dortmund have been active once again in the transfer market. Jamie Gittens has moved to Chelsea for €56 million, while Soumaila Coulibaly (Strasbourg), Youssoufa Moukoko (Copenhagen), and Sébastien Haller (free agent) have also departed the club. The loan spell of Carney Chukwuemeka (Chelsea) has come to an end.
📝 In their place, Dortmund have signed midfielder Jobe Bellingham from Sunderland for €30.5 million, right-back Yan Couto from Manchester City for €20 million, and have secured the permanent transfer of left-back Daniel Svensson from Nordsjaelland for €12 million.
❌ Emre Can, Julien Duranville, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Niklas Süle will not be available for Borussia in Hamburg. The participation of Yan Couto and Julian Ryerson remains uncertain.
🟨 Referee and Cards
The main referee for the match is Matthias Jöllenbeck. Over his last 10 matches, he has averaged 4.6 yellow cards per game. Last season, Borussia averaged 2.1 cautions per match compared to St. Pauli's 1.6. In their head-to-head encounters, Dortmund also held the advantage in yellow cards. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect that Borussia will not lose the yellow card battle.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Yes, in the DFB-Pokal, the "Bees" struggled against a Third League opponent, but this was likely due to underestimation and squad rotation. In the Bundesliga, the team must perform with maximum focus. We anticipate that Borussia will live up to their favorite status and secure a victory in Hamburg. A compelling bet is on Borussia's individual total over 1.5 goals, which has occurred in Dortmund's last 8 league matches.
🚩 Corner Prediction
In both matches between these teams last season, the total exceeded 7.5 corners. This bet also came through in 7 consecutive home games for St. Pauli (Bundesliga) and in 12 of Borussia's last 14 away matches (Bundesliga). Therefore, it's worth considering the option of total corners over 7.5.
Editorial Prediction
St. Pauli have shown they can defend, but against top-tier teams, that often isn't enough. Borussia, under Kovac, have found their rhythm and must assert themselves as medal contenders right from the first round. The difference in class and squad depth is evident, and the head-to-head statistics only strengthen this prediction. Our final bet: Borussia Dortmund to win.
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Betting Tips: St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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