Dortmund vs St Pauli Prediction 17 January 2026
🔊 Borussia continue their formal chase of Bayern and remain unbeaten in home league matches. This Saturday, St. Pauli, a team fighting for survival and winless on the road for eight consecutive matches, will visit Signal Iduna Park. For Dortmund, this encounter marks their first in the second half of the season, having already played 17 matches. St. Pauli, on the other hand, have yet to play their 16th round match; the Pirates' home game against Leipzig has been rescheduled for January 27. The visitors head to Dortmund following a defeat in Lower Saxony against Wolfsburg. In the first round, the Hamburg club staged an impressive comeback in the final minutes to snatch a draw. Can Alexander Blessin's side pull off something similar in Dortmund?
Head-to-Head
📊 In the August first-round match, St. Pauli had the final say. At the Millerntor, the hosts pulled off an impressive comeback to secure a 3-3 draw. With the score at 3-1 in Dortmund's favor, visiting defender Filippo Mane received a red card, allowing the "Pirates" to convert a penalty and then equalize to snatch a point.
Head-to-head statistics Dortmund - St Pauli
Borussia Dortmund Team Overview
🟡 Dortmund have solidified their hold on second place in the standings, returning to winning ways with a commanding 3-0 home victory over Werder Bremen. The goals came from Nico Schlotterbeck, Marcel Sabitzer-marking his 250th appearance for the "Black and Yellows"-and Serhou Guirassy. Special mention goes to Gregor Kobel's performance: the Dortmund goalkeeper made two crucial saves in the first half, allowing his team to head into the break with a narrow lead. After halftime, Niko Kovac's side appeared more confident, and Kobel ultimately secured his ninth clean sheet of the season-the best record in the league.
⚫ At Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund remain unbeaten in the Bundesliga with six wins and two draws. Only Bayern Munich and Borussia have yet to lose a home game this season. Last season, under the guidance of Nuri Sahin, Borussia narrowly defeated St. Pauli at home. After Ramy Bensebaini's first-half goal, Eric Smith equalized in the 78th minute, but just five minutes later, Serhou Guirassy sealed the win with a final score of 2-1.
Match Results: Borussia Dortmund
St. Pauli Team Overview
🟤 St. Pauli's situation has become even more complicated following their disappointing defeat in Wolfsburg (1-2), marking their tenth loss of the season. Eric Smith equalized just before halftime, but with two minutes remaining in regulation, the "Pirates" conceded again, allowing the "Wolves" to secure the win. After Mainz defeated Heidenheim (2-1), all three teams now have 12 points each. However, due to a poorer goal difference, St. Pauli have dropped to 17th place. The Hamburg side still have a game in hand.
⚪ Alexander Blessin's team has struggled on the road, going winless in eight away matches, six of which ended in defeat. Their attacking output is particularly concerning, as St. Pauli have not scored more than one goal in any of these matches and failed to find the net entirely in four of them. Their last away victory was on August 29th, when the "Pirates" triumphed over Hamburg 2-0 in a derby during the second round.
Match Results: St. Pauli
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Borussia Dortmund
🎙 Niko Kovac at the post-match press conference following the game against Werder: "In the first half, we weren't in the game. This was also due to Werder's aggressive pressing, as they played high and constantly applied pressure. It was challenging for us because the opponent frequently switched positions. We scored from a set piece, which should have boosted our confidence, but it didn't. In the second half, we performed better, although not perfectly. The second goal helped to calm things down a bit. I'm pleased with the victory, even if it wasn't outstanding. We're in a decent position midway through the season, but we must continue to work hard."
❌ Aaron Anselmino remains sidelined with a thigh injury. Meanwhile, Ramy Bensebaini might return to action after missing the match against Werder for additional rest. It's worth noting that the left-back recently represented Algeria in the Africa Cup of Nations.
St. Pauli
🎙 Alexander Blessin after the match against Wolfsburg: "Conceding such a crucial goal in the 88th minute is really tough to take. When they scored, we initially defended well but then dropped too deep. This allowed them to deliver a cross, and our positioning in the box wasn't good enough. Wolfsburg had another chance, but Nico [goalkeeper Nikola Vasil] saved us. We had some good attacking opportunities and a few shots that could have been on target. Before the penalty, it was clear the ball hit a hand. After that, we regrouped and deservedly equalized. In our current situation, we need points - playing well alone doesn't earn them. We must learn from this and perform better against Borussia."
❌ Due to injuries, Jackson Irvine, Andreas Untondji, Danel Sinani, Simon Spahic, and David Nemeth will miss the match. The participation of Connor Metcalfe and Ricky-Jade Jones remains uncertain.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The main referee for the match is Harm Osmers, who averages 3.7 yellow cards per game. Borussia's average number of cautions over 17 rounds stands at 1.8, while St. Pauli's average over 16 matches is 1.65. A betting option to consider is the individual total for Borussia over 1.5 yellow cards-this outcome has occurred in five of the team's last six Bundesliga matches.
⚽ Goal Predictions
Dortmund are traditionally strong on their home turf, making a bet on Borussia's individual total over 1.5 goals a logical choice. This market has hit in six of Kovac's team's last seven matches. Additionally, St. Pauli have conceded at least two goals in five of their last eight away games.
🚩 Corner Predictions
After the first half of the season, Borussia's average corners per match stands at 5.1. St. Pauli's figure is identical after 16 games. The main pick here is Borussia's individual total under 6.5 corners, which has been successful in eight of the team's last nine league matches.
Editorial Prediction
It's crucial for Borussia to secure second place, as the competition within the top six is incredibly tight, and any slip-up could see them drop out of the Champions League spots. Facing an away team that hasn't won in eight consecutive road games, Dortmund cannot afford to falter at home.
We are backing Borussia to win with a -1.5 handicap and expect this match to be another clean sheet for Gregor Kobel, marking his tenth of the season. The predicted scoreline is 2-0. St Pauli continue to struggle with finishing and have the fewest goals scored in the league-14, including a game in hand.
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Betting Tips: Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli
in 24 of last 25 games (Bundesliga).in 18 of last 19 home games.in last 12 home games (Bundesliga).in 10 of last 11 games.in 12 of last 13 games (Bundesliga).in last 8 away games (Bundesliga).
in 29 of last 30 games.in last 25 games (Bundesliga).in 18 of last 19 home games.in last 12 home games (Bundesliga).in 15 of last 16 games.in 13 of last 14 games (Bundesliga).in 8 of last 9 away games.in last 5 Borussia Dortmund games against St. Pauli.in 11 of last 12 Borussia Dortmund games.in last 8 Borussia Dortmund games (Bundesliga).in 6 of last 7 Borussia Dortmund home games.in 6 of last 7 St. Pauli away games.
in 21 of last 22 Harm Osmers games.in last 9 Harm Osmers games (in the Bundesliga).in 14 of last 16 Borussia Dortmund games (Bundesliga).in 8 of last 9 Borussia Dortmund home games (Bundesliga).in 10 of last 11 St. Pauli away games.in 8 of last 9 St. Pauli away games (Bundesliga).in 6 of last 7 St. Pauli games (Bundesliga).in last 5 St. Pauli games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
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