Maldonado vs Progreso Prediction 14 February 2026
💥 The second round of the Uruguayan Apertura brings Deportivo Maldonado and Progreso face-to-face at the Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel. The hosts aim to secure crucial points in front of their fans, building their play from a solid defense to cautious attacks. Progreso arrive for this away fixture determined to showcase disciplined tactics and engage in a fierce midfield battle. Fans can expect a hard-fought match between two evenly matched teams, where every goal could be decisive for the final outcome.
Head-to-Head
📊Analytical review of past official encounters between Deportivo Maldonado and Progreso:
- 13 matches played;
- home victories - 3, away victories - 5, draws - 5;
- goals scored (home/away) - 10 to 18;
- average total goals per match - 2.15.
Head-to-head statistics Maldonado - Progreso

Deportivo Maldonado Team Overview
The team's latest official match took place in the Primera tournament, with Racing Montevideo as the home side and Deportivo Maldonado as the visitors. The match concluded with a scoreline of 2-4.
Here are the game statistics (Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Montevideo):
- possession: 47% vs 53%;
- corner kicks: 8 vs 4;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 1;
- shots on target: 5 vs 6.
Deportivo Maldonado traditionally focuses on a well-organized defensive strategy, minimizing risks near their own goal. The team prefers to play on the counter, patiently waiting for opponents to make mistakes before launching rare but incisive counterattacks. The coaching staff places significant emphasis on maintaining compact lines, making it an extremely tough challenge for any forward to break through their defensive ranks. In home matches, the team aims to keep the game tight, prioritizing pragmatic results over flashy attacking displays.
Match Results: Deportivo Maldonado

Progreso Team Overview
The visiting team played their last official match in the Primera tournament, with Progreso hosting Central Español. The match concluded with a 0-3 scoreline.
Here are the match statistics (Progreso vs Central Español):
- possession: 51% vs 49%;
- corner kicks: 4 vs 2;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 2;
- shots on target: 2 vs 4.
Progreso are known for their tenacious and physically robust style of play, characterized by tough tackles and a compact team setup. They expertly organize a layered defense, aiming to close down any open spaces for the opponent's technical maneuvers. In the attacking phase, the team often relies on long passes and places significant emphasis on capitalizing on their limited set-piece opportunities. When playing away, Progreso adopt a strictly defensive approach, prioritizing the protection of their goal above all else.
Match Results: Progreso
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 13;
- home team wins - 3, away team wins - 5, draws - 5.
Statistics: Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso
- matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 1;
- wins: 1 vs 0;
- win percentage: 100% vs 0%;
- losses: 0 vs 1;
- draws: 0 vs 0.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 5 vs 5;
- losses: 2 vs 4;
- draws: 3 vs 1.
- Deportivo Maldonado have not lost in last 8 games.
- Progreso have not won in 11 of last 12 away games (Primera Division).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- the home team scores on average - 0.77, the guests - 1.38;
- average over/under goals in head-to-head matches - 2.15;
- both teams scored: overall - 6; at the home team's field - 3.
- Over 1.5 goals scored in 6 of last 7 Deportivo Maldonado home games.
- Over 1.5 goals scored in last 5 Progreso games (Primera Division).
Prediction on corners
- Progreso have taken under 4.5 corners in 8 of last 9 games (Primera Division).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 13;
- both teams scored all-time - 6 times;
- on the home team’s field - 3 times.
Statistics: Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso
- number of matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 1;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 1 vs 0;
- number of BTTS matches for Deportivo Maldonado at home - 0 (0%);
- number of BTTS matches for Progreso away - 0 (0%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 4 vs 5;
- BTTS matches for Deportivo Maldonado at home - 3 (60%);
- BTTS matches for Progreso away - 3 (50%).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Given the pragmatic approach of both teams and their tendency towards defensive football, a high-scoring encounter seems unlikely. Each side will prioritize solid defense, inevitably leading to a slower pace and fewer dangerous chances. The current form of both clubs at the start of the season suggests a high probability of a tight contest with minimal shots on target. Considering these factors, betting on under 2.5 goals is the most logical and well-founded scenario for this match.