Progreso vs Maldonado Prediction 18 July 2026
💣 Matchday six of the Uruguayan Torneo Intermedio brings us a clash between teams at opposite ends of Group B. Progreso, playing at home, will look to halt the momentum of the in-form group leaders Deportivo Maldonado. For the hosts, this fixture presents a golden opportunity to make a statement and finally put an end to their disappointing run of results. The visitors, meanwhile, arrive with a clear objective: to consolidate their lead and take another significant step toward topping the group.
Head-to-Head
The most recent official meeting between these sides ended in a 2-0 victory. Here’s a look at the key stats from that encounter (Deportivo Maldonado were the home team):
- Possession: 46% vs 54%;
- Corners: 6 vs 4;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 3.
📊 Analytical review of previous official encounters between Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado:
- The sides have faced off 14 times;
- Progreso have claimed 5 wins, while Deportivo Maldonado have secured 4 victories, with 5 draws recorded;
- Total goals scored: 18 for the hosts, 12 for the visitors;
- The average number of goals per match stands at 2.14.
Head-to-head statistics Progreso - Maldonado
Progreso Team Overview
The team's most recent official fixture took place in the Primera, with Montevideo Wanderers hosting Progreso. The match ended 2-0.
Here are the key match stats (Progreso vs Montevideo Wanderers):
- Possession: 51% vs 49%;
- Corners: 7 vs 2;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 5 vs 6.
Progreso are enduring a dismal run in the current stage of the championship, sitting at the bottom of Group B in seventh place. Over five rounds, they have managed to collect just three points-far below the club’s ambitions. Their main issue has been a shaky defense, which has already conceded nine goals. Meanwhile, their attack has struggled for efficiency, averaging less than a goal per game. On home turf, Progreso’s players will need to deliver a performance well above their usual standards if they hope to challenge such a formidable and cohesive opponent.
Match Results: Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado Team Overview
The visitors last took to the pitch in a Primera fixture, facing off against Deportivo Maldonado as the away side while Albion were the guests. The contest ended in a 1-1 draw.
Here’s how the key stats broke down (Deportivo Maldonado vs Albion):
- Possession: 38% vs 62%;
- Corners: 4 vs 2;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 3 vs 4.
Deportivo Maldonado are cruising through this tournament and rightfully sit atop the group with 11 points. The side have struck a perfect balance across all areas of the pitch, netting 12 goals while conceding just five. The visitors are in outstanding physical condition and play with a cohesion that's tough for any opponent to match. They expertly dictate the tempo, shifting gears when needed and confidently finishing off their rivals. Heading into this away fixture, the group leaders are clear favorites and look determined to extend their unbeaten run.
Match Results: Deportivo Maldonado
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 14;
- home team wins - 5, away team wins - 4, draws - 5.
Statistics: Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
- matches played in the tournament: 15 vs 15;
- wins: 3 vs 12;
- win percentage: 15% vs 63%;
- losses: 13 vs 3;
- draws: 4 vs 4.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 2 vs 6;
- losses: 8 vs 1;
- draws: 0 vs 3.
- Progreso have lost in 7 of last 8 games (Primera Division).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.29, the guests - 0.86;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.14;
- both teams scored: overall - 6; at the home team's field - 3.
Statistics: Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
- average total in the tournament: 2.4 vs 2.79;
- average total goals scored: 0.8 vs 1.84;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.35 vs 1;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.45 vs 0.84;
- Progreso: average total at home in the tournament - 1;
- Deportivo Maldonado: average total away in the tournament - 1.67;
- last 10 matches (average total): 0.7 (home - 1) vs 2.1 (away - 1.75).
- Deportivo Maldonado have scored under 2.5 goals in 8 of last 9 away games (Primera Division).
Prediction on corners
Progreso: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.4; at home field - 4.78;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 4.9; at home field - 4.5.
Deportivo Maldonado: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5, away - 6.11;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.2; away - 6.25.
- Progreso have taken over 3.5 corners in 7 of last 8 games (Primera Division).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 14;
- both teams scored all-time - 6 times;
- on the home team’s field - 3 times.
Statistics: Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
- number of matches played in the tournament: 15 vs 15;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 9 vs 12;
- number of BTTS matches for Progreso at home - 5 (56%);
- number of BTTS matches for Deportivo Maldonado away - 6 (67%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 8;
- BTTS matches for Progreso at home - 3 (75%);
- BTTS matches for Deportivo Maldonado away - 3 (75%).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 0:1 (22/153, 14.4%);
- Progreso at home most often finish matches: 0:1 , 1:2 (2/9, 22.2%);
- Deportivo Maldonado away most often play: 1:1 , 2:1 , 2:4 (2/9, 22.2%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 12.42% (odds 5.5)
0:1 - 10.93% (odds 5.5)
0:2 - 9.33% (odds 7)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The gulf in class and current form between these sides is hard to ignore. Deportivo Maldonado have the edge over the hosts in nearly every aspect, particularly when it comes to orchestrating attacking moves. Progreso’s shaky backline is unlikely to withstand the relentless pressure and inventive play of the Group B leaders. Expect the visitors to seize control of possession from the outset, gradually breaking down their opponent’s defensive structure. With strong chemistry and plenty of motivation to hold onto top spot, Deportivo Maldonado are well-placed to claim a convincing victory here. A 2-1 scoreline is a reasonable prediction.
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Betting Tips: Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado
in 7 of last 8 games (Primera Division).
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in 20 of last 22 Esteban Ostojich games (in the Primera Division).
Comparison of Teams Stats
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