Burnley vs Brighton Prediction 11 April 2026
🔊 Will Burnley secure their first home Premier League victory since October? On Saturday, Scott Parker's side hosts Brighton at Turf Moor. The home team has been struggling for wins and seems destined for relegation to the Championship by season's end. In contrast, Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton have found their rhythm and are eyeing a spot in European competitions. Whose streak will continue on April 11th? Let's delve into this topic.
Head-to-Head
📊 Burnley have failed to beat Brighton in 8 of their last 9 head-to-head encounters, a rather disappointing trend for the Clarets. This season, the teams clashed at the Amex, where the Seagulls secured a commanding 2-0 victory. Even Scott Parker admitted that his team fully deserved the defeat.
Head-to-head statistics Burnley - Brighton
Burnley Team Overview
Burnley sit in 19th place with just 20 points, and to be frank, they look doomed. Given the pace at which the Clarets are collecting points, making up a ten-point deficit on 17th-placed Tottenham seems like a far-fetched fantasy. Championship, here they come! Scott Parker's side have failed to win in their last six matches, and they've gone five home games without a victory.
Their only recent win came in the FA Cup against Millwall (5-1), only to be unceremoniously knocked out soon after by modest Mansfield (1-2). In their last outing before the international break, Burnley fell to Fulham (1-3), conceding three times after the 65th minute. Fulham's xG was 3.22, underscoring Burnley's status as the league's worst defense with 61 goals conceded.
Match Results: Burnley
Brighton & Hove Albion Team Overview
The "Seagulls" sit in tenth place with 43 points. The league table is so tight that they are just five points away from the Champions League spots. They're in excellent form, evidenced by four wins in their last five matches. Notably, both of their away victories during this stretch were clean sheets-against Brentford (2-0) and Sunderland (1-0). Brighton are on the verge of winning three consecutive away games for the first time since January 2023.
Before the long break, Fabian Hurzeler's protégés convincingly defeated Liverpool (2-1). This is one of those cases where the final score doesn't tell the full story. Danny Welbeck scored twice, but Brighton should have realistically added at least two more goals. The "Seagulls" simply outpaced their Champions League-weary opponents, creating five dangerous chances.
Match Results: Brighton & Hove Albion
Latest news
Burnley
🎙 Scott Parker on preparing for the match and the lengthy break: "It's been a long period, probably the longest in my career. We gave the players some time off to recover both physically and mentally, and then we've been working very intensively over the last couple of weeks. It was a good time for all of us. We understand the momentum we're in, and we know the games are winding down, but we just have to keep going. We'll fight and try to pick up points. There are seven games left, and we're fully focused."
❌ The hosts are facing a tough personnel situation. Josh Laurent (suspension), Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts, and Axel Tuanzebe (all injured) are definitely out. Hannibal Mejbri and Mike Tresor remain doubtful.
Brighton & Hove Albion
🎙 Fabian Hürzeler on losing the captain and squad depth: “We have a 100% strong squad. We will have options to replace Lewis Dunk. I believe that is also the strength of the team - always being able to respond to such situations, replacing a player if necessary. Not replacing one-to-one, but as a team. That's what we will do in the coming weeks. We will find solutions and won't complain. We'll strive to stay positive, maintain momentum, and do the basics right.”
❌ Captain Lewis Dunk received his tenth yellow card of the season and will miss two matches due to suspension. Adam Webster and Stefanos Tsimas are sidelined with injuries, something the team has grown accustomed to.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
The match will be officiated by a team of referees led by Thomas Bramall. This season, the Englishman has officiated 18 Premier League matches, handing out 73 yellow cards, averaging 4.06 per game. In his last match, Bramall sent off Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds with a second yellow card.
Burnley average 1.6 cautions per home game, while Brighton receive an astonishing 3.1 on the road, the highest in the league. Considering Bramall's willingness to brandish cards, a bet on over 3.5 bookings seems optimal.
⚽ Goal Prediction
The Clarets have struggled to find the net in head-to-heads with Brighton, scoring less than two goals in 13 consecutive encounters and in their last six home matches against the Seagulls in the Premier League. Are there any signs that Burnley could change this trend? We think not, given Fabian Hurzeler's side's recent clean-sheet victories away from home. Even with Brighton missing Lewis Dunk, we are backing under 1.5 goals for Burnley.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Burnley average 3.4 corners per home game, while Brighton average 4.4 on their travels. However, over 8.5 corners has hit in five consecutive head-to-heads at Turf Moor, in Burnley's last six matches, and in six of Brighton's last seven away fixtures (Premier League stats). So, both teams could well exceed their seasonal averages.
Editorial Prediction
It seems to us that everything hinges on Burnley's extremely vulnerable defense. The Clarets have conceded more than a goal in four of their last five home matches. Even Mansfield from the third tier managed to score twice at Turf Moor. The visitors possess higher quality and are in excellent form, making it a reasonable prediction by Scores24 to bet on Brighton scoring over 1.5 goals. We expect the Seagulls to net twice and maintain the necessary result, replicating the scoreline from their first-round head-to-head - a 2-0 victory.
No comments
Betting Tips: Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion
in 8 of last 9 games against Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League).in 21 of last 22 games (Premier League).in 12 of last 13 home games.in last 11 home games (Premier League).in 10 of last 11 games.
in last 8 away games against Burnley.in last 19 games.in last 17 games (Premier League).in last 15 away games.in last 12 away games (Premier League).in last 9 Burnley games against Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League).in last 8 Burnley home games against Brighton & Hove Albion.in last 6 Burnley home games against Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League).in last 14 Brighton & Hove Albion games.in last 12 Brighton & Hove Albion games (Premier League).in 9 of last 10 Brighton & Hove Albion away games (Premier League).
in last 5 Thomas Bramall games (in the Premier League).in last 13 home games against Brighton & Hove Albion.in 8 of last 9 games against Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League).in last 6 home games against Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League).
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
