Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction 8 February 2025

🔊 How will the outcome of this clash affect the championship race in Spain? The main match of the 23rd round in La Liga is the meeting between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid at the “Santiago Bernabeu”. Currently, the difference between the teams in the standings is only 1 point. Despite the fact that the “Rojiblancos” have been somewhat more stable and organized in recent months, bookmakers highlight the “Galacticos” as clear favorites: victory for “Los Blancos” - 1.85, success for the “Indians” - 4.15. Our editorial team reviewed the current agenda and summarized, within the proposed prediction, how justified this balance of power is.

📊 H2H

The head-to-head match of the teams in the 8th round of La Liga is still fresh in memory. Back then, a goal by Angel Correa in the 95th minute fixed a 1:1 on the scoreboard. Interestingly, in 6 out of the last 7 head-to-head encounters, teams failed to determine the stronger side within regular time. Let's note the following thesis: in the last 10 personal meetings where “Los Blancos” were the hosts, Diego Simeone's men did not win.

⚪ REAL MADRID

Over the past week, Real Madrid has kept their fans on edge. First, Carlo Ancelotti's team sensationally lost to Espanyol (0:1) at “Cornella-El Prat”, putting their leading position in La Liga at risk. Then, the “Galacticos” almost exited the Copa del Rey, engaging in a thrilling clash with Leganes (3:2). Only a decisive shot by young Gonzalo Garcia in the 93rd minute allowed the reigning Spanish champions to advance to the semi-finals of the cup tournament. While quotes from Javier Tebas and Florentino Perez regarding referee objectivity in La Liga are making headlines, the capital club is far from its optimal form. It is evident that members of the “Galactic” trio Vinicius - Mbappe - Rodrygo do not complement each other at all. Carlo Ancelotti's favorite formation is an attacking 4-3-3, which provides more variability in attacking phases due to regular involvement of three midfielders. However, using this formation throughout all 90 minutes would inevitably lead to numerous sharp counterattacks. Therefore, situationally, the “Galacticos” switch to 4-2-3-1 or even 4-2-4. Among unavailable players for the upcoming match are David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, and Antonio Rudiger.

🔴 ATLETICO

Unlike Real Madrid, the “Rojiblancos” convincingly dealt with their opponent in the Copa del Rey quarter-finals - a victory over Getafe (5:0). Now Diego Simeone's team faces a much more serious challenge, with the future of the championship race at stake. The Argentine specialist's quote that his players will go to “Santiago Bernabeu” on a “bus” is not just wordplay but a likely development of events. Notably, in each of the 9 head-to-head matches where the “Indians” were guests, no more than two goals were scored. We will surely see Simeone's favorite 4-4-2 formation again, which involves completely eliminating free spaces. Special attention should be paid to the back four, who are tied to defensive work and provide serious resistance to opponents on the approaches to the penalty area. A tactical feature of Atletico's coach is situational asymmetry formation. This can be expressed, for example, in significant overload on one flank. The unavailable player for the upcoming clash is Robin Le Normand (suspension).

⚽️ GOAL PREDICTION

As noted above, the “Rojiblancos” indeed endure a lot in away encounters against Real Madrid. And the low-scoring nature that distinguishes the last 9 meetings is further proof of this. Finally, let's note that Diego Simeone's team is the most competent defensively in the league - only 0.64 goals conceded per match. We settle on a total under 3 goals.

🚩 CORNER PREDICTION

What head-to-head encounters between “Los Blancos” and “Rojiblancos” do not lack is corner kicks - about 10.6 per game. This season, each team also approaches the corner flag quite often: Real - 5.7, Atletico - 5.3. Surely, the “Galacticos” will try to break through the defensive lines of their guests, leading to inevitable shifts of attacks from flank to flank and consequently a significant number of corner kicks. Our choice is total corners over 8.5.

📝 MATCH PREDICTION

Diego Simeone is simultaneously one of the most understandable and unpredictable coaches in Europe. The fact is that his ability to make adjustments during matches regularly allows his team to change scenarios. Considering that “Los Blancos” will likely face many problems in attacking phases of play, the “Rojiblancos” will have several opportunities to develop sharp counterattacks. And traditional positional errors by the “Galacticos” could play into the hands of the visiting side. Our editorial team predicts a draw with a score of 1:1. The key bet is Atletico victory with handicap (+1).