Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

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The main thing

    🔊 How will the "capital derby" at the Santiago Bernabeu conclude? The marquee matchup of La Liga's 29th round features Real Madrid taking on Atletico Madrid. The hosts cannot afford to drop points-victory would keep their title hopes alive. Both clubs traveled to the UK midweek for their European fixtures. We'll soon find out who has more left in the tank. Bookmakers give the "Galacticos" a twofold advantage. 

    Head-to-Head

    📊 Clashes between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are traditionally intense affairs. Let's delve into the outcomes of their last 10 head-to-head encounters: Real Madrid have claimed victory 3 times, there have been 3 draws, and Atletico Madrid have emerged triumphant on 4 occasions. Additionally, let's consider the average goals scored by each side over the same period: 2.1 for Diego Simeone's men compared to 1.7 for their rivals. 

    H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results

    50%
    29 Wins
    29%
    17 Draws
    21%
    12 Wins
    Total games
    58
    Total Goals Avg
    2.76
    Both teams scored
    60%
    1.6
    Total average
    1.16
    2.6
    Yellow cards
    3.41
    Last matches
    22.03.26
    La Liga
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    1
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    2.82
    1.3
    4
    1
    2
    15
    1
    4
    3
    2
    0
    1
    3
    1
    2.82
    1.3
    4
    1
    2
    15
    1
    4
    08.01.26
    SSC
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    2.29
    1.20
    9
    1
    7
    7
    0
    1
    1
    2
    0
    1
    1
    1
    2.29
    1.20
    9
    1
    7
    7
    0
    1
    27.09.25
    La Liga
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    2.34
    0.6
    7
    2
    17
    14
    5
    4
    5
    2
    2
    2
    3
    0
    2.34
    0.6
    7
    2
    17
    14
    5
    4
    12.03.25
    UCL
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    1.12
    1.01
    10
    10
    11
    16
    2
    2
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    2
    4
    1.12
    1.01
    10
    10
    11
    16
    2
    2
    04.03.25
    UCL
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    0.72
    0.21
    6
    3
    10
    13
    1
    0
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0.72
    0.21
    6
    3
    10
    13
    1
    0
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    Real Madrid Team Overview

    ⚪ Real Madrid's current winning streak across all competitions has reached four consecutive matches. Currently, Álvaro Arbeloa's side are sitting in second place in the La Liga standings, trailing the leaders by four points. Interestingly, "Los Blancos" boast the most effective defensive line in the league, conceding just 0.86 goals per match. It's equally important to note the "Galacticos'" productivity at the Santiago Bernabéu, where they've amassed 36 points from 14 games-ranking third in the league for points dropped.

    📌 In the last round of La Liga, Madrid left no chance for Elche with a 4-1 victory. In this encounter, "Los Blancos" were exemplary in converting their chances and operated on an entirely different level. Midweek, Álvaro Arbeloa's squad also secured a successful trip to the Etihad, achieving a 2-1 victory in the second leg of their Round of 16 clash with Manchester City. The Spanish tactician favors a 4-4-2 formation, leveraging the strengths of individual players. This setup allows the team's leaders more freedom to showcase their best football.

    Match Results: Real Madrid

    Last matches
    23.05.26
    La Liga
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Athletic Bilbao
    Athletic Bilbao
    1.39
    1
    2
    1
    6
    20
    2
    0
    4
    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    1.39
    1
    2
    1
    6
    20
    2
    0
    W
    17.05.26
    La Liga
    Sevilla
    Sevilla
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    1.03
    1.32
    5
    4
    18
    12
    4
    0
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    1.03
    1.32
    5
    4
    18
    12
    4
    0
    W
    14.05.26
    La Liga
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Real Oviedo
    Real Oviedo
    1.66
    0.94
    4
    5
    7
    14
    0
    0
    2
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    1.66
    0.94
    4
    5
    7
    14
    0
    0
    W
    10.05.26
    La Liga
    Barcelona
    Barcelona
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    1.22
    0.67
    4
    8
    18
    9
    2
    4
    2
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    1.22
    0.67
    4
    8
    18
    9
    2
    4
    L
    03.05.26
    La Liga
    Espanyol Barcelona
    Espanyol Barcelona
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    1.26
    1.76
    5
    6
    19
    16
    3
    4
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    1.26
    1.76
    5
    6
    19
    16
    3
    4
    W
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    Atletico Madrid Team Overview

    🔴 The "Colchoneros" have been quite convincing recently. Atletico Madrid's current winning streak in La Liga has reached four consecutive matches. Diego Simeone's side have now built a comfortable lead in the race for a Champions League spot, with their nearest rivals trailing by 13 points. Let's take a look at the team's average performance metrics: 1.68 goals scored per match and 0.89 conceded.

    ⚪ In their last La Liga outing, Atletico Madrid secured a narrow victory over Getafe (1-0). Nahuel Molina's strike was the only goal of the encounter. The "Colchoneros" made several attempts to extend their advantage, but a lack of coordination in the final stages of their attacks prevented them from doing so. This past Wednesday, the Spanish club visited Tottenham Hotspur's stadium and maintained their aggregate lead over the "Spurs," winning 7-5 over two legs. Atletico's top scorer in this season's La Liga is Alexander Sørloth, with 10 goals in 27 appearances.

    Match Results: Atletico Madrid

    Last matches
    24.05.26
    La Liga
    Villarreal
    Villarreal
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    2.45
    1.01
    5
    9
    3
    12
    0
    1
    5
    1
    4
    1
    1
    0
    2.45
    1.01
    5
    9
    3
    12
    0
    1
    L
    17.05.26
    La Liga
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    Girona
    Girona
    2.49
    2.33
    9
    8
    7
    9
    2
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    2.49
    2.33
    9
    8
    7
    9
    2
    0
    W
    12.05.26
    La Liga
    Osasuna
    Osasuna
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    1
    2.18
    1.47
    8
    4
    15
    12
    6
    3
    1
    2
    0
    1
    1
    1
    2.18
    1.47
    8
    4
    15
    12
    6
    3
    W
    09.05.26
    La Liga
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    Celta de Vigo
    Celta de Vigo
    2.41
    0.16
    10
    0
    11
    13
    1
    2
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    2.41
    0.16
    10
    0
    11
    13
    1
    2
    L
    05.05.26
    UCL
    Arsenal
    Arsenal
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    1.32
    0.93
    5
    2
    10
    13
    1
    2
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1.32
    0.93
    5
    2
    10
    13
    1
    2
    L
    Empty
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    Latest news

    Real Madrid

    🎤 Following their 2-1 victory over Manchester City in the second leg, securing a spot in the Champions League quarter-finals, Álvaro Arbeloa spoke to the media: “I’m thrilled! We beat Manchester City at their home. Everyone knows how tough that is. Real Madrid won 5-1 on aggregate, which isn’t easy against a team like this and a coach like Pep, so I’m very happy. We knew City would press and try to score in the first 15-20 minutes. We needed to maintain more possession. But after the penalty, the situation changed, and it became a bit easier for us.”

    ❌ In Real Madrid's injury list are Dani Ceballos (muscle injury), Thibaut Courtois (hip injury), Éder Militão (hamstring injury), Ferland Mendy (hamstring injury), and Rodrygo (knee injury).

    Atletico Madrid

    🎤 Atletico's head coach Diego Simeone reflected on the second leg of their European tie against Tottenham (2-3, aggregate 7-5): "We are pleased with the club's and team's growth, consistently ranking among the top eight in Europe, even though it becomes increasingly challenging. Our enthusiasm is immense. It was an uncomfortable match. We discussed it in the dressing room and responded in the second half; we had two chances to score a third goal, but it ended with a penalty awarded against us. Matches against Barcelona? I always take inspiration from those who have been with me. Mono Burgos once told me that you should play as many friendlies as possible against Barca, Real, or Bayern. The more you overcome your fears and the more frequently you play against such teams, the better you understand them and the greater your chances become."

    ❌ Among Atletico Madrid's injured players are Pablo Barrios (muscle injury), Rodrigo Mendoza (leg injury), Jan Oblak (muscle injury), and Marc Pubill (muscle injury).

    ⚽ Goal Prediction

    Interestingly, recent head-to-head encounters between these teams have not been goal-fests. A notable trend shows that in 6 of the last 7 meetings, no more than three goals were scored. It's crucial to consider that both clubs boast the most effective defensive lines in the current La Liga season, conceding just 0.9 goals per game on average. We suggest considering a bet on under 3.5 total goals.

    🚩 Corner Prediction

    Both teams consistently earn a solid number of corners per match: Real Madrid average 6.5, while Atletico Madrid average 6.9. This is due to their active wing play, which generates high attacking pressure. In their head-to-head clashes, around 10.6 corners are recorded per game. Our editorial choice is Real Madrid's individual total corners over 5.5.

    🚀 Player Stats Bet

    Attention should be paid to Atletico's lineup as they will be without Jan Oblak in the upcoming match. This puts Argentine goalkeeper Juan Musso in the spotlight. He has performed excellently in recent games, such as making 8 saves against Tottenham despite conceding three goals. With plenty of action expected at the Santiago Bernabeu, we anticipate numerous saves from the Argentine. Our editorial pick is Juan Musso to make over 4 saves at odds of 1.65*.

    😱 Risky Bet

    Atletico Madrid are likely to adopt a defensive approach, as seen in most recent encounters with Real Madrid. Additionally, player fatigue on both sides suggests we shouldn't expect a high-paced game. As a risky bet, we propose a scenario where a single decisive strike determines the outcome. Our editorial choice is under 1.5 total goals at odds of 4.93*.

    👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned

    A quick goal could completely upend both teams' strategies. Should one side lose focus, we might witness a game lacking midfield control, leading to numerous positional errors and, consequently, more goals. Consider the following option - over 3.5 total goals at odds of 2.52*.

    *Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers

    Editor's Prediction

    Real Madrid's unbeaten streak in home head-to-head matches against Atletico has reached the milestone of ten games. It's also worth noting the impressive performance of Los Blancos at the Santiago Bernabeu this season. Our editorial team anticipates that the home advantage and the individual brilliance of their players will enable the Galacticos to secure a narrow victory. We forecast a final score of 1-0, with the key bet being a Real Madrid win.  

    Our choice
    Real Madrid Win at odds of -105*
    Everygame
    Bet
    *The odds are relevant for the time of publication (21 March 2026, 14:53)

    Betting Tips: Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid

    Atletico Madrid have drawn
    real-madrid-1atletico-madrid-1in last 3 away games against Real Madrid (La Liga).
    Draw
    Everygame
    +285
    Real Madrid have won
    real-madrid-1in 9 of last 10 home games.
    real-madrid-1in 6 of last 7 home games (La Liga).
    Real Madrid Win
    Bovada
    +106
    Real Madrid have not won
    real-madrid-1atletico-madrid-1in last 6 games against Atletico Madrid (La Liga).
    Atletico Madrid will not lose
    Everygame
    -137
    Real Madrid have not lost
    real-madrid-1atletico-madrid-1in last 11 home games against Atletico Madrid.
    real-madrid-1atletico-madrid-1in last 9 home games against Atletico Madrid (La Liga).
    real-madrid-1in 9 of last 10 home games.
    Real Madrid will not lose
    Everygame
    -312
    View more facts

    Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid Table position

    LaLiga 25/26
    gWDLGDPForm
    1.
    Barcelona
    Barcelona
    38311695-3694
    2.
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    38275677-3586
    3.
    Villarreal
    Villarreal
    382261072-4672
    4.
    Atletico Madrid
    Atletico Madrid
    382161162-4469
    5.
    Real Betis
    Real Betis
    381515859-4860

    Comparison of Teams Stats

    10 matches
    5 - Wins
    2 - Draws
    3 - Loses
    Wins - 4
    Draw - 1
    Loses - 5
    10 matches
    Scored - 17
    Conceded - 13
    +4
    -2
    14 - Scored
    16 - Conceded
    5
    Wins
    4
    2
    Draws
    1
    3
    Loses
    5
    Goal difference
    17
    Scored
    14
    13
    Conceded
    16
    3
    Match goals average
    3
    1.7
    Goals scored per match on average
    1.4
    1.3
    Goals conceded per match on average
    1.6
    6
    Both teams scored
    6
    53'
    Minutes / Goal scored
    66'
    View all stats