Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 4 October 2026
📢 How will the upcoming match between Azerbaijan and Lithuania play out? After the first round of the Nations League, the standings look rather surprising: the hosts sit second, while the visitors are top. Azerbaijan are clearly unhappy with that situation and will be looking to put things right at the Bakcell Arena by taking all three points.
🔁 This prediction is updated on match day. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
In the first leg, both teams were evenly matched.
📊 The first-leg match ended 1-1 and was the first official meeting between these two sides. The game was genuinely even, with neither team managing to gain any clear advantage, so the draw was a fair result.
Head-to-head statistics Azerbaijan - Lithuania
Azerbaijan are failing to live up to their billing as group favourites.
Azerbaijan are an unusual sight in League D, where most of their opponents are clearly below their level. Before the tournament began, it seemed the team should have little trouble winning their group, but after the first round of fixtures the picture looks very different. They are yet to win: both matches have ended in draws.
The 1-1 away draw with Lithuania can at least be explained away, but the home draw with Liechtenstein (0-0) cannot. The odds on an Azerbaijan win were around 1.09, yet the team failed to score a single goal. Statistically, their dominance was enormous: 74% possession and 25 shots to 5. But territorial and playing dominance does not earn you points.
Match Results: Azerbaijan
Lithuania have made a strong start to the tournament and continue to build momentum.
Lithuania have considerably more reason for optimism after the first round of fixtures. They have picked up four points from a possible six and currently sit top of the group. The picture would have been even better had they managed to beat Azerbaijan at home, but the current return still looks very respectable - particularly given that Azerbaijan were considered the group's clear favourites before the tournament began.
Because the group contains only three teams, Lithuania had a free matchday in one round and played a friendly against Andorra on 30 September. Their dominance was clear throughout: 70% possession and 13 shots to 2. On this occasion the statistics were reflected in the scoreline, as Lithuania made full use of their superiority and won comfortably 3-0.
Match Results: Lithuania
Latest news
Azerbaijan
❌ Azerbaijan have no new confirmed injuries following the match against Liechtenstein, though the team remain without Renat Dadashov. The forward missed the previous match through injury, and it has been confirmed that he will not feature against Lithuania either.
🔁 Update - 4 October, 09:26 UTC:
- Renat Dadashov trained with the team and could play in the upcoming match. He is included in the squad published on UEFA's official website. Potentially, this is a serious boost for the hosts' attacking line.
Lithuania
✅ Lithuania's squad situation looks settled ahead of the match against Azerbaijan. No new injuries emerged following the win over Andorra, and the head coach specifically noted the team's good physical condition and confirmed that all players are available for the next match.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Azerbaijan: Balayev - Mutallimov, Badalov, Kryvotsyuk, Bayramov - Khaybulaev, Mahmudov - Emreli, Sadykhov, Iskandarli - Gurbanli.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Lithuania: Bartkus - Armalas, Utkus, Tutyskinas - Lasickas, Gineitis, Slivka, Michelbrink - Lickunas, Dolznikovas - Kucys.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Azerbaijan's matches have rarely been low-scoring affairs of late: Total Goals - Over 1.5 has landed in 10 of their last 11 fixtures. In the current Nations League campaign, neither side looks toothless in attack either. The odds are 1.50*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Lithuania rarely earn a high number of corners in away matches. In 6 of their last 7 away games, they took fewer than four corners. The first meeting with Azerbaijan fits that pattern too: despite playing at home on that occasion, Lithuania did not earn a single corner. Our pick is Lithuania Team Total Corners - Under 3.5 at 1.85*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The first leg was a feisty affair - 31 fouls and 4 bookings between the two sides. With every point now worth even more, the intensity should rise further. Our pick is Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Azerbaijan's main attacking hope is Mahir Emreli. He has plenty of experience at a decent European level, having played for Dinamo Zagreb and in the 2. Bundesliga. In the current Nations League campaign, the 29-year-old has scored his side's only goal, so he will again be expected to lead the line. Our pick is Mahir Emreli to Score at 3.70*.
😱 Risky Bet
Lithuania are extremely poor away from home, and against a stronger opponent they could struggle badly. The risky pick is Azerbaijan - Handicap (-1.5) at 4.80*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Lithuania very rarely win matches: in 17 of their last 18 official fixtures, they failed to take three points. Given that the hosts cannot afford to let a direct rival extend their lead in the table, they should not collapse in front of their own supporters. We are backing Azerbaijan Not to Lose at 1.30*.
👀 If the Match Goes Against the Script
There is, of course, an alternative scenario. Azerbaijan are far from their best right now, and their Nations League campaign has offered little encouragement - two draws in matches where more was expected of them. If the hosts again struggle with their finishing, Lithuania could take advantage. The alternative pick is Lithuania to Win at 3.40*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The bookmakers make Azerbaijan favourites for this one, and there are reasons for that. The hosts look stronger in terms of overall squad quality, and the match is being played at the Bakcell Arena, where they need to perform better after two poor outings. Lithuania, meanwhile, are extremely inconsistent away from home: they have lost 6 of their last 7 away matches in the Nations League, and the trip to Baku is unlikely to be straightforward for them. Our main bet is an Azerbaijan win. We expect the scoreline to read 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Azerbaijan - Lithuania
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in 6 of last 7 away games (UEFA Nations League).
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