Croatia vs England Prediction 3 October 2026
π Croatia and England go into this Nations League meeting level on points, so there is plenty at stake. Slaven BiliΔ's side will be looking to bounce back at home after a heavy defeat to Spain, though the match will be played in front of virtually no supporters following a UEFA disciplinary sanction. England, meanwhile, have already picked up three points in Prague and can significantly improve their position in the group with a win in Rijeka.
π We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off so you don't miss any important changes.
England have held the upper hand more often
π England have the edge in recent head-to-head meetings. Over the last 10 matches, England have won six, Croatia three, with one draw. The most recent meeting came just a few months ago at the World Cup in June, when England won 4-2. The two sides have also met in Rijeka before, in the Nations League in 2018, and that match ended goalless.
Head-to-head statistics Croatia - England
Croatia look for a response after their 4-1 defeat
Croatia began the tournament with a 2-1 win over Czechia, and in that away fixture BiliΔ's side allowed their opponents just five shots compared to 16 of their own. The match against Spain, however, proved a much sterner test: Croatia lost 1-4 and were again outshot, this time 5-16. Overall, the team maintain a fairly high level of possession and look to build attacks through the central zone, where Luka ModriΔ continues to play an important role.
After two matches, Croatia have scored three goals and conceded five. That is a relevant detail ahead of the game against England: the team are capable of creating chances, but in recent matches the defence has been giving away more space than usual. This was particularly evident against Spain, who regularly found pockets of space between the lines.
Match Results: Croatia
England have stepped up their game since the start
England began the tournament with a 2-3 defeat to Spain, but responded three days later with a convincing 2-0 win over Czechia. In Prague, Thomas Tuchel's side not only scored twice but also restricted their opponents to six shots while managing 22 themselves. It is worth noting that Czechia played from the 25th minute with ten men following Pavel Ε ulc's red card. Both of England's goals across the first two matches were scored by Harry Kane and Anthony Gordon, each netting twice.
England look noticeably stronger in terms of attacking output: across their recent matches, they average more shots and greater possession. In the current Nations League campaign, England have scored four goals and conceded three, and their averages for shots and possession remain higher than Croatia's. That suggests the visitors are unlikely to sit back and play purely on the counter.
Match Results: England
Latest news
Croatia
πͺ Croatia's squad situation remains fairly broad. The official squad includes ModriΔ, KovaΔiΔ, Gvardiol, StaniΕ‘iΔ, PeriΕ‘iΔ, KramariΔ and Budimir, and in recent matches BiliΔ has already used several different line-ups. Worth noting separately is that after two rounds, KramariΔ has yet to take to the pitch in this Nations League campaign.
π« The match is indeed being played in Rijeka behind closed doors: Croatian supporters are banned from the stadium due to a UEFA sanction imposed following incidents involving fans during the Croatia-France match in 2025.
England
β There is one important detail to note: UEFA have permitted 100 England supporters to attend the match, as confirmed by the Football Association itself.
β England's injury situation is more significant. Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Declan Rice, Kobbie Mainoo and Tino Livramento have all missed the current camp through injury. Palmer is out with a muscle problem, while Rice and the others were replaced by additional call-ups. Kane, Bellingham, Saka, Gordon, Eze and other key players remain in the official squad.
Predicted Lineups
π Croatia predicted starting XI: LivakoviΔ - StaniΕ‘iΔ, VuΕ‘koviΔ, Ε utalo, Gvardiol - KovaΔiΔ, ModriΔ, P. SuΔiΔ - PeriΕ‘iΔ, MatanoviΔ, Marko PaΕ‘aliΔ.
π England predicted starting XI: Pickford - Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guehi, Hall - Lewis-Skelly, Anderson - Saka, Bellingham, Gordon - Kane.
π¨ Yellow Cards Prediction
Neither side stands out for particularly high average booking numbers. That said, this match has table implications, and after losing 1-4 to Spain, Croatia cannot afford to drop more points. The two teams have regularly been involved in physical contests when they meet, so I wouldn't expect the foul count to be especially low. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Over 2.5 at odds of 1.58*.
β½ Goals Prediction
Recent head-to-head meetings give reason to expect goals: at the World Cup England won 4-2, and before that the two sides regularly produced high-scoring encounters. The current situation is somewhat different, though: after a heavy defeat, Croatia's priority will be to stabilise their defence, while England may try to be more cautious at the back if they take the lead, particularly if their goal comes in the second half. So I'm more inclined to expect 2-3 goals than another high-scoring affair. Prediction: Total Goals - Under 3.5. Odds: 1.47*.
π© Corners Prediction
Croatia and England averaged around six corners per match in the opening rounds of the Nations League, so the baseline for this fixture looks fairly high. Both sides make active use of the flanks and are comfortable taking positional attacks through to crosses and cutbacks, which often forces opponents to concede corners rather than allow deliveries into the box. In Rijeka I expect a fairly open match with attacks in both directions, so I'm backing both teams to produce a combined total of at least nine corners. Prediction: Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.72*.
π± Risky bet
Second Half: England Win & Total Goals - Over 1.5 - odds 3.70*. In the match against Spain, England scored both their goals before half-time but conceded two more in the second 45 minutes. Then against the Czechs, despite playing with a man advantage from midway through the first half, Tuchel's side managed to score only in the second half. Croatia also scored both their goals in Prague and conceded after the break. In Seville, the second-half Total Goals - Over 1.5 came in as well.
The first half of the upcoming match could prove extremely difficult and low-scoring for both sides - they may well go in at the break with nothing on the board. However, England's resources are noticeably superior to Croatia's, both in terms of bench depth and average squad age. So I think we could see all the key action come after the interval, with England taking all three points.
π― Reliable Bet
Total Goals - Over 1.5 - odds 1.24*. In the first two rounds of the Nations League, Croatia scored three goals and conceded five, while England scored four and conceded three. Both sides have already shown they can create chances against high-level opposition: England scored twice against Spain, while Croatia replied with one goal against the same opponent who had scored four. Given the attacking potential of both teams, this selection looks like a reasonable choice for a reliable bet.
π Player Stat Bet
Harry Kane to Score - 2.04*. The England striker scored twice against Croatia at the World Cup and has already scored twice in the current Nations League campaign. The 33-year-old captain remains the focal point of the attack. In the upcoming match, he should again get enough chances to find the net.
π If the match doesn't go to plan
If Croatia take the lead first, England will need to raise the tempo significantly and increase pressure down the flanks. In that scenario, an interesting live option could be England Team Total Corners - Over 4.5. Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka are capable of causing plenty of problems for the opposition's full-backs, and the attacking involvement of England's own full-backs would add further pressure on Croatia's defence.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
β Editor's Prediction
Croatia, following their defeat to Spain, should come out with more intent at home, while England are unlikely to sit completely deep even if they take a comfortable lead. Both sides have enough quality in attack to punish defensive errors, and the current form of both defences gives little reason to expect a completely closed-off match. I therefore expect Croatia to find their moment, with England responding with at least one goal of their own. Final pick: Both Teams to Score - Yes.
Croatia are at home, but the absence of a proper crowd noticeably reduces the home advantage. I expect Tuchel's side to edge out BiliΔ's team and win 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Croatia - England
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