Greece vs Netherlands Prediction 1 October 2026
📢 It feels like the Nations League only just got under way, yet the first half of the group stage is already drawing to a close. Both Greece and the Netherlands have made very confident starts and sit first and second in the group after two matchdays. Greece show no sign of letting up after two consecutive wins and will be looking to make the most of home advantage at the Toumba. This meeting between the group's top two promises to say a great deal about the balance of power ahead of the second half of the group stage.
🔁 This prediction is updated on matchday. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
The Netherlands have dominated the recent head-to-head meetings.
📊 Over the last 20 years, Greece and the Netherlands have met just three times, so there is no extensive recent head-to-head history between the two sides. The previous two matches took place in 2023 during Euro 2024 qualifying, when the teams were drawn into the same group. The Netherlands won both: a comfortable 3-0 victory at home, and a narrow 1-0 win in Greece in the second round of fixtures.
Head-to-head statistics Greece - Netherlands
Greece have kicked off the tournament against all odds
"It's not that I'm locked in here with you - you're locked in here with me." That phrase fits Greece perfectly right now. Going into the tournament, they were widely seen as the clear outsiders in Group 2, which also features the Netherlands, Germany and Serbia. Almost everyone expected the Greeks to finish bottom and drop back to League B. But the first two rounds have turned all of that on its head. Greece have won both of their away matches and, after two games, find themselves unexpectedly top of the group.
In the last round they even beat Germany 1-0 and kept a clean sheet. You can argue at length about how well that result reflected the run of play. Greece had just 24% possession against Germany's 76%, they had noticeably fewer attempts (8 shots to 16, 1 on target to 5) and they also lost the xG battle (0.52 to 1.39). But does any of that matter when the scoreboard is in your favour?
Match Results: Greece
The Netherlands fail to make the most of their advantage
The Netherlands have a very strong generation of players, but the national team has yet to achieve any truly major success at international level. In the Nations League they are also seen as a dark horse in the title race, and the start has been relatively promising: four points from two games and a provisional second place in the group. That said, the points tally could easily have been higher or lower. In the first round against Germany, the Netherlands were significantly the better side by xG (3.18 to 1.45), yet they came close to losing at home. They had to come from behind and scored the equaliser deep into second-half stoppage time (1-1).
The second game, against Serbia, was also hard work. Even away from home the Netherlands were aggressive and attacked constantly: 67% possession, 25-11 in shots, 6-4 in chances created and a remarkable xG of 3.65. Yet despite that dominance the win was by the narrowest margin (2-1). The hero of the match was Max Merdink, who scored twice to give the Netherlands their first three points in this Nations League campaign.
Match Results: Netherlands
Latest news
Greece
❌ Greece have one injury concern ahead of their match against the Netherlands. Georgios Vagiannidis felt discomfort during the game against Germany and was substituted at half-time. It was later confirmed that the defender has left the squad entirely and will not play in the remaining matches of the current international window. Triantafillos Tsapras has been called up as his replacement.
Netherlands
❌ The Netherlands have a fitness concern of their own - Cody Gakpo. He suffered an ankle injury against Serbia and was substituted in the first half. The Royal Dutch Football Association subsequently confirmed that Gakpo has been ruled out for the remainder of the international window and has returned to Liverpool. Brian Brobbey and Lutsharel Geertruida had already left the squad earlier.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Greece: Tzolakis - Vagiannidis, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas - Karetsas, Kourbelis, Zafeiris, Tzolis - Kostoulas, Pavlidis.
📋 Predicted starting XI for the Netherlands: Verbruggen - Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven - Gravenberch, Veerman, Reijnders - Summerville, Meerdink, Van Bommel.
⚽️ Goals prediction
Netherlands' matches in this Nations League campaign have been highly entertaining so far. The Dutch are generating enough chances on their own to account for three goals per game, but their finishing has been letting them down badly. There are also problems at the back: they conceded in both of their opening fixtures, and the run of matches in which the Netherlands have both scored and conceded has now reached six consecutive official games. Our pick is Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.65*.
🚩 Corners prediction
With that volume of attacking play, the Netherlands naturally find themselves at the corner flag regularly. In the first matchday against Germany they delivered 12 corners, and against Serbia they managed 4. Against Greece the picture is unlikely to change much: the visitors should again enjoy plenty of possession and spend long periods in the opposition half. Our pick is Netherlands Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 at 1.48*.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
Against Germany, Greece picked up as many as 4 yellow cards, which is quite a lot. The figure is fairly easy to explain: for most of that match the Greeks were without the ball, and fouling became one of their main tools for containing a superior opponent and stopping them from getting in behind freely. The Netherlands are also a stronger side than Greece, so it is worth looking at Greece Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5 at 1.63*.
🚀 Player statistic bet
Mex Meerdink received his first senior international call-up for this international break and has already been given a fair amount of playing time. Against Germany the forward came on in the 35th minute as a replacement for the injured Brian Brobbey, and against Serbia he started from the off and scored twice. The 23-year-old has also been putting up good numbers in the Eredivisie, so we are backing Mex Meerdink to Score at 2.30*.
😱 Risky bet
With the number of chances the Netherlands are creating, sooner or later there has to be a game where they score a lot. It is quite possible that happens in their very next match. So for those who like a risk, there is a case for Netherlands Team Total - Over 2.5 Goals at 4.10*.
🎯 Safe bet
The Netherlands have not left the pitch without scoring for a long time. The Dutch found the net in each of their previous 18 official matches, which speaks well of the consistency of their attack. Even when their finishing is off, they still create enough chances to breach the opposition at least once. For those looking for a more reliable option, Netherlands to Score at 1.18* is worth considering.
👀 If the match goes off script
There is, however, an alternative scenario. Greece will clearly continue to prioritise defensive organisation - a tactic that already caused problems for a side of Germany's calibre. If the Greeks manage to shut up shop again, the match could turn out to be a low-scoring affair. The alternative bet is at least one team fails to score at 2.43*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The bookmakers make the Netherlands favourites for this match, and there are reasons for that assessment. The visitors have a higher overall quality of players, and in terms of their play across the first two rounds they looked very convincing, creating a huge number of chances. But Greece cannot be written off: back-to-back wins, top spot in the group and an unexpected victory over Germany should give the hosts added confidence. On top of that, they will have passionate support at Toumba, so the Dutch are not in for an easy ride. Greece have already shown they are capable of taking their chances even with minimal possession. So our final selection is Both Teams to Score - Yes. We expect the scoreline to read 1-2.
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Betting Tips: Greece - Netherlands
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