Iceland vs Luxembourg Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 16 November 2026

📊 Until recently, Luxembourg had been a difficult opponent for Iceland: in Euro 2024 qualifying, they won at home by two goals and held on for a draw in Reykjavik. Their September meeting in the Nations League changed that. Iceland won 3-0 in Luxembourg, scoring twice before half-time.

📋 Iceland’s predicted starting XI: Valdimarsson - Palsson, Hermannsson, Gretarsson, Tomasson - Haraldsson, Johannesson, Ellertsson - Thorsteinsson, Oskarsson, Gudjohnsen.

📋 Luxembourg’s predicted starting XI: Moris - Jans, Carlsson, Selimovic, Veiga - Moreira, Bohnert, Olesen - Dardari, Thill, Kadamani.

Iceland have scored before the break in six of their last seven Nations League matches and in seven consecutive home games. Luxembourg have conceded in the first half in all five of their matches in the competition. The group leaders' goals have come largely from two forwards. Andri Gudjohnsen and captain Orri Oskarsson have scored nine of Iceland's 12 goals in the group between them. Both scored before half-time in Plovdiv on Friday. We expect Iceland to score against the visitors in the first half. The bet is Iceland to Score in the 1st Half at 1.30*.

There have been fewer than 11 corners in 13 consecutive Luxembourg matches. The visitors themselves took fewer than six corners in those games. Luxembourg have taken 16 corners in five Nations League rounds. Despite their advantage, Iceland have not been piling on the crosses either: they have taken 26 corners in the group. And 10 of their last 11 matches in the competition have produced fewer than 11 corners. We do not expect the total to reach 11 in Reykjavik. The bet is Total Corners - Under 10.5.

In 4 of their 5 Nations League matches, Luxembourg players received at least two yellow cards, taking their total to 14 bookings. Iceland have received ten over the same period. Luxembourg have also committed more fouls: 69 to Iceland’s 58. The visitors have already had to do without defenders Enes Mahmutovic and Dirk Carlson for a match due to yellow-card accumulation. Luxembourg will be the ones defending all evening, so we expect the visitors to receive at least two yellow cards. Bet - Luxembourg Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5.

Andri Gudjohnsen heads into the final round on the back of a hat-trick: the striker scored three times against Bulgaria in Plovdiv on Friday. He has five goals in the group, more than anyone else in the Iceland squad. Against a Luxembourg defence that has conceded before half-time in five consecutive matches, the forward should have plenty of chances. The pick is Gudjohnsen to score.

Luxembourg have failed to score in four consecutive Nations League matches. Iceland have kept clean sheets in the same number of matches and beat the visitors to nil in September, scoring three times. The hosts have not failed to score at home: Iceland have scored in eight consecutive home matches in the competition. The risk is that a single goal from the visitors would lose the bet entirely. Still, we expect the leaders to win to nil by at least two goals. Bet - Luxembourg Not to Score and Total Goals - Over 1.5.

More than one goal was scored in 18 of Iceland's last 19 Nations League matches. The only exception was a goalless draw away to Estonia. Iceland have scored at home in 12 consecutive matches. Our bet wins with any scoreline featuring two or more goals. The bet is Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.22*.

The likely scenario is that Iceland score before half-time and comfortably see out a win to nil. That changes if Luxembourg score first. The hosts would then have to open up: only a win guarantees them first place. The visitors are capable of responding: in Bulgaria in September, they fell behind but still took all three points. In that case, look at both teams to score and three or more goals in live betting. Keep these markets in mind if Luxembourg take the lead in the first half-hour.

*The odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.

📌 Editor's Prediction

Luxembourg have failed to score in four consecutive Nations League matches. The visitors last scored on 26 September and have managed just two goals in five rounds. Iceland have gone the same number of matches without conceding: the group leaders have kept clean sheets since the second round. A win would take the hosts into League B regardless of the result in Tallinn. We expect Iceland's run of clean sheets to reach five matches. Bet - Luxembourg to Score - No. Predicted score - 2:0.