Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma vs Metallurg Prediction
🔊 Gornyak-UGMK staged a comeback victory in the third game of the second-round playoff series of the All-Russian Hockey League, narrowing the deficit. However, the top team from the regular season is unlikely to allow such lapses in the upcoming matches. Let's delve into patterns and trends in our prediction for the fourth playoff game of the Olimpbet VHL on April 16 to offer you the best pick for the match.
Head-to-Head
📊 Over the past three seasons in the VHL, Metallurg and Gornyak-UGMK have faced off nine times, with the Siberian club coming out on top in eight of those encounters, while the Ural team claimed victory in one. Including friendly matches, Metallurg have triumphed in 11 of their last 12 games. In the playoff series, Metallurg clinched both home games (2-1 and 1-0), but Gornyak-UGMK turned the tide on the road with a 3-2 win after trailing 0-2.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma Team Overview
The Ural club has shown its ability to turn around not only decisive games (as they did in the seventh game of the first round against Molot), but also matches that could have put them on the brink of elimination. Their average scoring in the Petrov Cup stands at just 1.5 goals scored versus 1.9 conceded on average during regular time.
At home, the team from Verkhnyaya Pyshma has won 5 out of their last 6 games, including the regular season, conceding more than two goals only once. On average, the "miners" score slightly above the playoff average at home with 2.00 goals per game during regular time, but they concede more - 2.4 goals per game. Their stats were dented by a 0-6 loss to Perm in the first round.
Finally, in their tenth playoff game, the Ural club managed to score on the power play. Gorniak's execution has been dismal, with only a 4.5% success rate from one goal in 22 power-play attempts. Meanwhile, in penalty killing, the team from Verkhnyaya Pyshma has allowed five goals (a 73.7% kill rate - the worst among teams still competing for the Petrov Cup).
Match Results: Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma
Metallurg Team Overview
The Siberians once again delivered a low-scoring performance, but this time they failed to secure a win. The Metallurgists have now gone seven consecutive games without scoring more than three goals per match, and in the last three games, they haven't managed more than two. This results in a rather unimpressive average scoring rate of 2.11 goals for and 2.00 goals against in regulation time.
On the road, the Kemerovo club has won 9 out of 11 games in the regular season, and they have avoided defeat in regulation time in 15 out of 17 away matches. Outside of Novokuznetsk, the Metallurgists averaged 2.50 goals scored per game in regulation during the playoffs, while conceding 2.75.
In power play situations, Metallurg scored twice (with a 10% conversion rate, ranking 11th in the Petrov Cup), while in penalty kills, they allowed four goals (with an 82.6% neutralization rate, ranking 10th in the Petrov Cup).
Match Results: Metallurg
Prediction for the 1st period
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 32;
- First-period wins for the home team (on home ice) - 4; for the away team (on the road) - 7;
- Average total for the first period: 1.94;
- Today's hosts average 0.94 goals, visitors - 1 goal.
First Period Stats: Gornyak-UGMK (home) vs Metallurg (away)
- Number of matches played in the tournament: 36 vs 35;
- Number of wins: 15 (41.67%) vs 15 (42.86%);
- Number of losses: 10 (27.78%) vs 9 (25.71%);
- Number of draws: 11 (30.56%) vs 11 (31.43%).
- Average goals scored: 0.83 vs 0.86;
- Average goals conceded: 0.53 vs 0.71.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 5 vs 5;
- Number of losses: 4 vs 3;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 2;
- Average first-period total: 1.6 (scored - 0.8, conceded - 0.8) vs 1 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.4).
- Gornyak-UGMK have failed to win the first period at home in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings against these opponents (Olimpbet VHL).
- Metallurg have not lost the first period on the road in 12 of their last 13 matches (Olimpbet VHL).
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 32;
- Home victories - 12, away victories - 20.
Statistics: Gornyak-UGMK vs Metallurg
- Matches played in the tournament: 62 vs 62;
- Wins: 40 (56%) vs 57 (80%);
- Losses: 32 (44%) vs 14 (20%);
- Home wins for the hosts: 22;
- Away wins for the visitors: 27.
Last 10 Matches:
- Wins: 5 vs 7;
- Losses: 5 vs 3;
- Home wins for the hosts: 4;
- Away wins for the visitors: 2.
- Gornyak-UGMK have failed to win in regulation time in 14 of the last 15 head-to-head encounters (Olimpbet VHL).
- Gornyak-UGMK have failed to win at home in regulation time in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head encounters (Olimpbet VHL).
- Metallurg have avoided defeat on the road in regulation time in 15 of the last 17 matches (Olimpbet VHL).
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Average total goals per match for the hosts - 2.69, for the visitors - 3.31;
- Average total goals in head-to-head matches - 5.72;
- Both teams scored in the first period - 10 times;
- Both teams scored in the second period - 10 times;
- Both teams scored in the third period - 10 times.
Statistics: Gornyak-UGMK vs Metallurg
- Average tournament total: 4.88 vs 5.34;
- Average goals scored: 2.78 vs 3.46;
- Average goals conceded: 2.39 vs 2.1;
- Gornyak-UGMK: Average home total in the tournament - 2.92;
- Metallurg: Average away total in the tournament - 3.31;
- Last 10 matches (average goals scored): 1.6 (home - 2) vs 2.4 (away - 2.5).
- Total under 5.5 goals has hit in 8 of the last 9 head-to-head matches (Olimpbet VHL).
- Total under 5.5 goals has hit in 10 of the last 11 matches for Gornyak-UGMK (Olimpbet VHL).
- Total under 5.5 goals has hit in Metallurg's last 6 consecutive matches (Olimpbet VHL).
Editorial Prediction
Metallurg have only experienced back-to-back away losses once this season, maintaining consistent performances on the road. They have also avoided consecutive away defeats in the last two Petrov Cup campaigns. Considering the Siberians have triumphed in 11 of their last 12 head-to-head matchups, a Metallurg win (including overtime) seems like the most reasonable choice for this game.
Betting Tips: Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma - Metallurg
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