Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma vs Metallurg Prediction
🔊 The top team of the regular season entered the second round of the All-Russian Hockey League playoffs with minimal effort, scoring just twice in two games-yet that was enough for two victories. Should we expect a high-scoring game in the match in the Urals? Let's analyze the patterns and trends in our prediction for the third game of the series in the Olimpbet VHL on April 14, to offer you the best pick for the match.
Head-to-Head
📊 Over the past three seasons in the VHL, Metallurg and Gornyak-UGMK have faced off eight times, with the Siberian club coming out on top in every encounter. Including friendly matches, Metallurg's winning streak now extends to 11 consecutive games. This season, the regular-season champions have also claimed victory in all four matchups: a 5-4 win in Verkhnyaya Pyshma and a 3-2 OT triumph in Novokuznetsk during the regular season, followed by playoff victories of 2-1 and 1-0.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma Team Overview
Gornyak-UGMK, who barely made it to the second round, understandably lost their first two games. Currently, their series isn't going in their favor with five defeats in their last six matches. In the Petrov Cup, the team's average performance is just 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game during regular time.
At home in Verkhnyaya Pyshma, taking into account the regular season, they have won four out of their last five games, conceding more than two goals only once. On average, in home playoff games, Gornyak scores slightly above the playoff average with 1.75 goals during regular time but concedes more at 2.5 goals. Their stats were marred by a 0-6 loss to Molot in the first round.
The Ural club is the only team in the tournament that hasn't scored on any of their nine games and 19 power play opportunities. Meanwhile, they have conceded five goals while shorthanded (with a penalty kill percentage of 72.2% - the worst among teams still competing for the Petrov Cup).
Match Results: Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma
Metallurg Team Overview
Sibir continue their low-scoring trend, yet they clinch another victory. Metallurg have secured 4 out of their 5 playoff wins with no more than three goals scored per game. This results in a modest average scoring rate of 2.13 goals for and 1.88 goals against in regulation time. But as the saying goes, you don't judge the winners.
On the road, the Kuzbass club have won 9 out of 10 matches including regular season games, and they haven't lost in regulation in 15 of their last 16 away games. Outside of Novokuznetsk, Metallurg average 2.67 goals scored and 2.67 goals conceded in regulation during the playoffs.
In power plays, Metallurg have scored twice (with a 10.5% conversion rate, ranking 11th in the Petrov Cup), while in penalty kills, they have conceded three times (with an 85.0% kill rate, ranking 9th in the Petrov Cup).
Match Results: Metallurg
Prediction for the 1st period
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 31;
- Number of first-period wins at home - 4; away - 6;
- Average first-period total: 1.97;
- Today's home team scores an average of 0.97, while the visitors score 1.
First-Period Statistics: Gornyak-UGMK (home) vs Metallurg (away)
- Number of matches in the tournament: 35 vs 34;
- Number of wins: 15 (42.86%) vs 14 (41.18%);
- Number of losses: 9 (25.71%) vs 9 (26.47%);
- Number of draws: 11 (31.43%) vs 11 (32.35%).
- Average goals scored: 0.86 vs 0.85;
- Average goals conceded: 0.51 vs 0.74.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 5 vs 5;
- Number of losses: 4 vs 3;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 2;
- Average first-period total: 1.7 (scored - 0.8, conceded - 0.9) vs 1.3 (scored - 0.8, conceded - 0.5).
- Total first-period goals under 1.5 occurred in 8 of Metallurg's last 9 matches (Olimpbet VHL).
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- Total encounters - 31;
- Home wins - 11, Away wins - 20.
Statistics: Gornyak-UGMK vs Metallurg
- Matches played in the tournament: 62 vs 62;
- Wins: 39 (55%) vs 57 (81%);
- Losses: 32 (45%) vs 13 (19%);
- Home wins in the tournament for hosts: 21;
- Away wins in the tournament for guests: 27.
Last 10 Matches:
- Wins: 4 vs 8;
- Losses: 6 vs 2;
- Home wins for hosts: 3;
- Away wins for guests: 2.
- Gornyak-UGMK have lost (in regulation) 8 of their last 9 head-to-head encounters with Metallurg (Olimpbet VHL).
- Gornyak-UGMK have lost (in regulation) at home in their last 4 head-to-head matches against Metallurg (Olimpbet VHL).
- Metallurg have won (in regulation) on the road in 6 of their last 7 matches (Olimpbet VHL).
Total Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- Average total goals per match for hosts - 2.68, for guests - 3.35;
- Average total goals in head-to-head matches - 5.74;
- Both teams scored in the 1st period - 10 times;
- Both teams scored in the 2nd period - 9 times;
- Both teams scored in the 3rd period - 10 times.
Statistics: Gornyak-UGMK vs Metallurg
- Average total in the tournament: 4.87 vs 5.34;
- Average goals scored: 2.77 vs 3.49;
- Average goals conceded: 2.39 vs 2.09;
- Gornyak-UGMK: average home total in the tournament - 2.91;
- Metallurg: average away total in the tournament - 3.35;
- Last 10 matches (average goals scored): 1.5 (home - 1.75) vs 2.9 (away - 2.67).
- Gornyak-UGMK have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 head-to-head encounters with Metallurg (Olimpbet VHL).
- Gornyak-UGMK have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in their last 7 matches (Olimpbet VHL).
Editor's Prediction
Metallurg are in control of the series, opting for a strategic rather than high-scoring approach. Betting on totals might be risky, but considering the Siberians' formidable away performance is a safe bet. In their last 14 head-to-head encounters with Gornyak-UGMK, Metallurg have never lost in regulation time, including all six games at their opponent's rink. A Metallurg win with a (0) handicap seems like the optimal choice, as this option has been profitable in 15 of their last 16 away games for the team from Novokuznetsk.
Betting Tips: Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma - Metallurg
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