Bublik vs Paul Prediction 4 September 2026
🔊 Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul make up one of the most evenly matched third-round contests at the US Open. Both are in the top 25, but they go about winning points in different ways. The Kazakhstani looks to end rallies as quickly as possible, while the American is capable of absorbing that early pressure and keeping Bublik under strain throughout the match.
Head-to-Head
📊 Paul leads the head-to-head 5-2. A year ago in the third round of the US Open, Bublik won in five sets - 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1. Before that, the American came out on top in Miami in March 2025. The upcoming match will be their second meeting at a Grand Slam.
Head-to-head statistics Bublik - Paul
Alexander Bublik Player Overview
Bublik opened the tournament with a win over Jeff Wolf - 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 - then conceded just five games against Adrian Mannarino: 6-3, 6-1, 6-1. Across those two matches the Kazakh hit 34 aces and won around 74% of service points. The 72% second-serve points won figure is particularly eye-catching, though it needs to be read in context: neither Wolf nor Mannarino is ranked in the top 50, and neither is among the stronger returners on tour.
On hard courts in 2026, Bublik has won 15 of 21 matches. He has held serve in 88% of service games, hit aces on 14% of points, and won 77% of first-serve points. On return, however, Alexander has broken in just 15% of return games. Against top-50 opponents on the surface his record stands at three wins and four losses. That profile tends to keep scorelines close, but rarely gives him a quick way to recover a poor service game.
Match Results: Alexander Bublik
Tommy Paul Player Overview
In the first round, Paul dropped the opening set to Chak Lam Coleman Wong before coming through 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3. He then beat Dino Prizmic 6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. Across those eight sets he dropped two, but in the other six he conceded no more than four games. On serve, Paul won around 72% of points, and five double faults suggest his second serve has not been a consistent problem so far.
Since the start of the season Paul has won 20 of 30 matches on hard courts. He has held 87% of his service games and won 77% of first-serve points and 56% of second-serve points. The main difference from Bublik is on return: Paul has broken in 20% of return games and won 36% of return points. Against top-50 opponents his record stands at 8-7. Paul has faced stronger opposition more regularly and may be better prepared for a match where a reliable serve alone might not be enough.
Match Results: Tommy Paul
Key factors
- Bublik held serve in 88% of service games on hard courts this season; Paul held 87%.
- Bublik served an ace on 14% of his service points this season on hard courts.
- Paul broke serve in 20% of return games this season on hard courts, compared with 15% for Bublik.
- Paul's record against top-50 opponents on hard courts this season stands at 8-7; Bublik's is 3-4.
- Their match at last year's US Open went to five sets, with three of those sets reaching a tie-break.
Expected scenario
Bublik will look to shorten points with his serve and first strike, as Paul is the more consistent player in extended rallies. The American returns well, but even he will find it difficult to reach break points regularly against a serve of that quality. As a result, long stretches without a break are likely in each set, and a single error late on may matter more than the overall difference in playing level.
Paul may gradually force more second-serve rallies on Bublik's delivery, though he will also have to deal with aggressive returning himself. Both players have had brief dips in form during the tournament but recovered quickly each time. This does not look like a match where one side should consistently outplay the other across three sets.
Match Result Prediction
If forced to pick a side, Bublik looks the more interesting option. Paul is more consistent on return and has beaten top-50 players more often, but Bublik's current serve limits the number of rallies in which the American can make those advantages count. Bublik has already found a way past Paul in a five-set match at the US Open.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Both players' serving numbers this season give each of them good chances of holding regularly. Paul creates break points more often, but even his return-game advantage is no guarantee of pulling clear quickly against Bublik, who has won nearly 9 in 10 service games on hard courts.
A total games bet suits this match-up better than backing either player to win, given the main dynamic between them: neither holds a consistent edge across all areas of the game. A few tight sets could push the match past the chosen line without necessarily requiring a fifth set, and the balance of the two players noticeably increases the likelihood of an extended contest.
Pick: Total Games - Over 39.5.
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Betting Tips: Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul
in last 5 matches against Tommy Paul..svg)
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