Wu vs Alcaraz Prediction 4 September 2026
🔊 Yibing Wu admitted that ahead of his US Open third-round match against Carlos Alcaraz, he had planned to watch some of the Spaniard's matches on TV in his hotel room but couldn't find the right sports channel. He ended up preparing by playing PlayStation instead. It may have cost him, as Alcaraz came into the match on a flawless 16-match winning streak at Grand Slams, built on his title at last year's US Open and the Australian Open earlier this season. We'll see what effect Wu's unconventional preparation has on the outcome.
Head-to-Head
📊 The pair have met once, with Carlos Alcaraz winning. The match took place at the 2024 Shanghai Masters. The Spaniard won without dropping a set, though in the first set the Chinese player pushed him to a tie-break.
Yibing Wu Player Overview
Yibing Wu, once ranked as high as 54th in the world, dropped outside the top 400 due to a series of injuries but arrived at the US Open ranked 113th. Convincing wins over Adam Walton (7-6, 6-2, 7-5) and James Duckworth (7-5, 6-3, 6-1) allowed him not only to match his best result at this Major, set in 2022, but also to break into the top 100 of the ATP rankings in real time.
Wu's average games-won and sets-won rates stand at 55% and 68% respectively. He holds serve in 77% of service games. His serve is not particularly powerful, though. Wu's main weapon is his flat ball-striking during rallies - he keeps the ball low over the net, forcing opponents into awkward low contact points on return. He also stands out for his tactical variety: he can play solidly from the baseline or catch opponents off guard with drop shots when they sit too deep behind the court.
Match Results: Yibing Wu
Carlos Alcaraz Player Overview
Carlos Alcaraz has also had his share of injury problems. Unlike his upcoming opponent, who has played regularly this season, the Spaniard missed more than four months in the build-up to the US Open, sitting out both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He also lost his world No. 2 ranking, and reclaiming it from Alexander Zverev looks unlikely for now, given that Carlos is the defending US Open champion.
Alcaraz's title defence has gone reasonably well so far: in the first round he beat Roman Safiullin without dropping a set (6-4, 6-4, 6-4), and in the second he dropped the opening set to Jaime Faria (4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2). Before his wrist injury, he was winning 86% of sets and 61% of games. That said, the injury has left some mark. Even before the enforced break, Alcaraz was not holding serve particularly efficiently - winning 69% of service points. Since returning to the tour, he has been broken three times in two rounds at the Slam, which matches his total for the entire title-winning US Open run last year.
Match Results: Carlos Alcaraz
Key factors
- Yibing Wu has covered the +7.5 games handicap in 14 consecutive matches.
- Carlos Alcaraz leads his opponent in sets won.
- Wu, however, has won a higher percentage of games.
- The Chinese player reached the third round without dropping a set, unlike the Spaniard.
- Wu holds serve considerably more effectively.
Expected scenario
Given the Spaniard's inconsistent serve early in the tournament, the Chinese player is quite capable of grabbing a break and taking one of the opening sets to a tight tie-break, or even edging it. As the match progresses, though, Alcaraz's high-intensity baseline game, the depth of his defensive slices and his superior fitness may start to wear down an injury-prone opponent. That said, Wu has a reasonable chance of putting up a decent score before the decisive moment arrives.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Carlos Alcaraz's status as favourite is beyond question, and the odds on the Spaniard are rapidly approaching evens. At such prices, it makes sense to look at the weaknesses of the world number three. His hold percentage stands out immediately - it has dipped not only compared to last year's US Open but also relative to his tour average.
That is where Yibing Wu may find an opening. He has an effective return game, taking the ball early, and the flat trajectory of his returns could cause real problems for Alcaraz's wrist. We think Wu, much like his compatriot's previous opponent, will make it a contest in the first half of the match and at the very least put up a respectable game count. Our prediction: Wu Total Games - Over 11.5.
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Betting Tips: Yibing Wu - Carlos Alcaraz
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