Medvedev vs Rinderknech Prediction 4 September 2026
🔊 Since 2016, Daniil Medvedev has missed the US Open only once, and in 8 of his 11 appearances, including this one, he has reached at least the third round. This time, in the round of 16, he faces Arthur Rinderknech, with their head-to-head record up for grabs. With so many seeded players already out of the draw, Rinderknech is the highest-ranked opponent Medvedev is likely to face before a potential quarter-final. We'll see whether the Russian favourite can make the most of that.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two players have met twice, with the head-to-head record level at 1-1. Notably, they faced each other in the second round of the US Open in 2022, where Medvedev came out on top in three sets: 6-2, 7-5, 6-3.
Head-to-head statistics Medvedev - Rinderknech
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev had a poor summer hard-court swing heading into the US Open, with a 1-3 record. Yet however difficult those earlier results were, he has moved through the main draw with authority - back-to-back straight-sets wins over Hugo Gaston (6-4, 6-2, 6-4) and Sebastian Gorzny (6-1, 6-3, 7-5). Despite standing close to two metres tall, Medvedev does not play classical power tennis. His hold percentage is relatively low at 68%, yet he is capable of hitting aces at will, averaging 11.2 per match. More often, though, he operates as an elite counter-punching defender, dropping well behind the baseline on return.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Arthur Rinderknech Player Overview
Arthur Rinderknech has not made any notable impact on the summer hard-court swing either: his best result was a round of 16 in Montreal, though he entered at the second round. In his first two matches at the US Open, the Frenchman dropped one set on a tie-break to Sho Shimabukuro (6-7, 6-2, 7-6, 6-2), then beat Jaume Munar without dropping a set (7-6, 6-2, 7-5). Rinderknech's game is the polar opposite of his upcoming opponent's. They are close in height - Arthur is two centimetres shorter - but the Provençal player makes full use of his frame, playing an ultra-aggressive style with little regard for defence. On serve he holds 84% of his service games and averages 16.1 aces per match.
Match Results: Arthur Rinderknech
Key factors
- The most recent best-of-3 meeting between these two players went to three sets.
- Both players consistently hit a high number of aces, though the Frenchman holds his serve more often.
- The Russian's return game is among the best on tour, and his style is the opposite of Rinderkneсh's aggressive approach.
Expected scenario
At the start of each set, Rinderknech may hold his serve and create some local pressure through freshness and aggressive net approaches. Once Medvedev draws the Frenchman into extended baseline rallies, Arthur will likely start losing patience and position, and his unforced errors will mount. The expectation is that Medvedev gradually wears his opponent down through tactical intelligence and endurance.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This match shapes up as a classic clash of styles: Arthur Rinderknech will look to impose ultra-aggressive power tennis, while Daniil Medvedev deploys his trademark defensive game. The question is whose approach prevails. The Frenchman's style arguably suits hard courts well, yet the Russian and his chess-like game did win the US Open in 2019.
That said, Rinderknech's all-out aggression, with little regard for defence, may pay off in terms of games won - particularly given the Russian's inconsistency over the summer. Medvedev has come through the main draw without trouble so far, but he has yet to face anyone ranked higher than world No. 88 Hugo Gaston. There is a reasonable chance the Frenchman takes at least one set off the favourite, and in that scenario Rinderknech Player Total Games - Over 17.5 looks a fair bet.
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Betting Tips: Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech
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