Shelton vs Shapovalov Prediction 5 September 2026
🔊 Ben Shelton has achieved something unique at the US Open, becoming the first American left-hander in 30 years to reach the third round in four consecutive years. He will face another left-handed player there, Denis Shapovalov, who, like Shelton, defended his third-round place from last year. That said, it will be very difficult for the Canadian to go further, given his poor head-to-head record against the American. Whether Shelton can extend his winning streak against Shapovalov adds an interesting dimension to the match.
Head-to-Head
📊 Ben Shelton has won all four of his meetings with Denis Shapovalov. One of those wins came via retirement, and in 2 of the other 3 Shapovalov took at least one set.
Head-to-head statistics Shelton - Shapovalov
Ben Shelton Player Overview
Ben Shelton arrived at the US Open as the Montreal Masters champion, with four titles across all surfaces during the current season. Both of his first two rounds were equally demanding: he needed four sets against both Tallon Griekspoor and Hubert Hurkacz, and Hurkacz actually hit more winners (14 against Shelton's 6 aces). Shelton played considerably cleaner tennis, which is unsurprising given his average first-serve percentage of 69%. His serve can reach speeds of up to 240 km/h, though his double-fault rate - currently 5% - is something he would benefit from reducing. That is also affecting his hold percentage of 78%, which sits 2-3% below the tour average.
Match Results: Ben Shelton
Denis Shapovalov Player Overview
Denis Shapovalov made a strong start to the North American hard-court swing, reaching the final of the ATP 250 in Los Cabos. Results then dipped, and ahead of the US Open the Canadian won just one match from three following that missed title in Mexico. In the main draw at Flushing Meadows he beat Miomir Kecmanovic (6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1) and then bagelled Luca Van Assche in the first set on his way to a straight-sets win (6-0, 6-4, 7-6). The left-handed Shapovalov has a powerful serve, averaging 12 aces per match. Despite a relatively modest first-serve percentage of 55%, he compensates with aggressive returning, converting 48% of break points.
Match Results: Denis Shapovalov
Key factors
- Denis Shapovalov has gone over 16.5 games in 8 of his last 9 matches at the US Open.
- Shapovalov has won an average of 52% of games in his last ten matches.
- Ben Shelton won a title during the summer hard-court swing.
- The Canadian reached the final at the ATP 250 in Los Cabos.
Expected scenario
The Canadian will likely make it competitive and take a set through his trademark explosive bursts, but over the course of a five-set match Shelton's baseline consistency and ability to play the big points well should see him through in the end. That said, looking at the American's route to the third round, there is little doubt that Shapovalov will at least keep the scoring high.
Player Total Games Prediction
Shapovalov consistently goes over 16.5 games at the US Open specifically, regardless of the opponents he faces. His attacking game can be difficult to sustain for an entire match, but a few strong spells are usually enough to clear a high individual total line.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Denis Shapovalov's current form gives reason to expect at least two competitive sets, or an even higher-scoring performance. His ace numbers, percentage of aggressive points won and break-point conversion all support a scenario in which, even in defeat, he puts up a high game count. This is particularly relevant given Ben Shelton's run through the US Open main draw, where the American has consistently dropped a set in each match so far. Worth noting too that in 2 of their 3 completed head-to-head meetings, Shelton has lost at least one set to the Canadian. Our prediction: Denis Shapovalov Total Games - Over 16.5.
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Betting Tips: Ben Shelton - Denis Shapovalov
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